{"id":"https://openalex.org/W1975533133","doi":"https://doi.org/10.7148/2012-0654-0661","title":"Comparing Prediction Market Mechanisms Using An Experiment-Based Multi-Agent Simulation","display_name":"Comparing Prediction Market Mechanisms Using An Experiment-Based Multi-Agent Simulation","publication_year":2012,"publication_date":"2012-05-20","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W1975533133","doi":"https://doi.org/10.7148/2012-0654-0661","mag":"1975533133"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.7148/2012-0654-0661","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.7148/2012-0654-0661","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"ECMS 2012 Proceedings edited by: K. G. Troitzsch, M. Moehring, U. Lotzmann","raw_type":"proceedings-article"},"type":"conference-paper","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5001244733","display_name":"Frank M. A. Klingert","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I159176309","display_name":"Universit\u00e4t Hamburg","ror":"https://ror.org/00g30e956","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I159176309"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I884043246","display_name":"Hamburg University of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/04bs1pb34","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I884043246"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Frank M. A. Klingert","raw_affiliation_strings":["Hamburg University of Technology,#TAB#"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Hamburg University of Technology,#TAB#","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I159176309","https://openalex.org/I884043246"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5101571342","display_name":"Matthias Meyer","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2980-4670"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Matthias Meyer","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":1.4792,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":8,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.75471698,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":90,"max":96},"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":"654","last_page":"661"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14082","display_name":"Modeling, Simulation, and Optimization","score":0.9986000061035156,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2607","display_name":"Discrete Mathematics and Combinatorics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14082","display_name":"Modeling, Simulation, and Optimization","score":0.9986000061035156,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2607","display_name":"Discrete Mathematics and Combinatorics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.9896000027656555,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11270","display_name":"Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis","score":0.9132000207901001,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/prediction-market","display_name":"Prediction market","score":0.859835684299469},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/crowds","display_name":"Crowds","score":0.7299363613128662},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.643356204032898},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/scoring-rule","display_name":"Scoring rule","score":0.5838332772254944},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.5566810965538025},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/variable","display_name":"Variable (mathematics)","score":0.5198915004730225},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mechanism","display_name":"Mechanism (biology)","score":0.4888297915458679},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/logarithm","display_name":"Logarithm","score":0.48290443420410156},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/work","display_name":"Work (physics)","score":0.4385097324848175},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.32048726081848145},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/machine-learning","display_name":"Machine learning","score":0.30367881059646606},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economics","display_name":"Economics","score":0.27188390493392944},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.11651420593261719},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/engineering","display_name":"Engineering","score":0.078245609998703}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780021719","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q282283","display_name":"Prediction market","level":2,"score":0.859835684299469},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777852691","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q13430821","display_name":"Crowds","level":2,"score":0.7299363613128662},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.643356204032898},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C63002673","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2260590","display_name":"Scoring rule","level":2,"score":0.5838332772254944},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.5566810965538025},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C182365436","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q50701","display_name":"Variable (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.5198915004730225},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C89611455","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6804646","display_name":"Mechanism (biology)","level":2,"score":0.4888297915458679},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39927690","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11197","display_name":"Logarithm","level":2,"score":0.48290443420410156},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18762648","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q42213","display_name":"Work (physics)","level":2,"score":0.4385097324848175},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.32048726081848145},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.30367881059646606},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.27188390493392944},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.11651420593261719},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.078245609998703},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C78519656","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q101333","display_name":"Mechanical engineering","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C38652104","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3510521","display_name":"Computer security","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111472728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9471","display_name":"Epistemology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134306372","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7754","display_name":"Mathematical analysis","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.7148/2012-0654-0661","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.7148/2012-0654-0661","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"ECMS 2012 Proceedings edited by: K. G. Troitzsch, M. Moehring, U. Lotzmann","raw_type":"proceedings-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":31,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W145179666","https://openalex.org/W166615094","https://openalex.org/W1487010959","https://openalex.org/W1504430305","https://openalex.org/W1508464170","https://openalex.org/W1526874807","https://openalex.org/W1593108344","https://openalex.org/W1978627992","https://openalex.org/W2001213910","https://openalex.org/W2013622632","https://openalex.org/W2018567859","https://openalex.org/W2019971220","https://openalex.org/W2031373607","https://openalex.org/W2032508420","https://openalex.org/W2060221718","https://openalex.org/W2086661071","https://openalex.org/W2090571851","https://openalex.org/W2100761249","https://openalex.org/W2102360367","https://openalex.org/W2102546791","https://openalex.org/W2104083611","https://openalex.org/W2120832833","https://openalex.org/W2127984541","https://openalex.org/W2135553394","https://openalex.org/W2140728436","https://openalex.org/W2140862057","https://openalex.org/W2147260815","https://openalex.org/W2157812228","https://openalex.org/W2167583387","https://openalex.org/W2202340118","https://openalex.org/W2490737927"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2186918367","https://openalex.org/W2899138273","https://openalex.org/W3123978639","https://openalex.org/W2182854540","https://openalex.org/W1547538645","https://openalex.org/W1975533133","https://openalex.org/W4378942064","https://openalex.org/W4380486379","https://openalex.org/W2338117566","https://openalex.org/W2294918614"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Prediction":[0],"markets":[1],"are":[2,61,67,146],"an":[3,82,141],"interesting":[4],"instrument":[5],"to":[6,15,86,92,107,127],"draw":[7],"on":[8,53,132,152],"the":[9,12,33,43,46,88,101,108,114,119,121,137,144,153],"\u201cwisdom":[10],"of":[11,45,111,118],"crowds\u201d,":[13],"e.g.,":[14],"forecast":[16],"sales":[17],"or":[18],"project":[19],"risks.":[20],"So":[21],"far,":[22],"mainly":[23],"two":[24,50],"market":[25,39,51,59,72,123],"mechanisms":[26,52],"have":[27,128],"been":[28],"implemented":[29],"in":[30],"prediction":[31,58,71],"markets,":[32],"continuous":[34],"double":[35],"auction":[36],"and":[37,91,113,150,155],"logarithmic":[38,122],"scoring":[40,124],"rule.":[41],"However,":[42],"effects":[44,66,90,145],"choice":[47],"between":[48],"these":[49],"relevant":[54,68],"variables":[55],"such":[56],"as":[57,69,140,148],"accuracy":[60,138],"not":[62,147],"fully":[63],"understood.":[64],"These":[65],"faulty":[70],"outcomes":[73],"might":[74],"cause":[75],"wrong":[76],"decisions.":[77],"This":[78],"work":[79],"contributes":[80],"via":[81],"experiment-based":[83],"simulation":[84],"model":[85],"understand":[87],"mechanism-related":[89],"direct":[93],"further":[94],"laboratory":[95],"experiments.":[96],"Our":[97],"results":[98],"show,":[99],"that":[100],"mechanism":[102],"decision":[103],"does":[104],"matter.":[105],"Due":[106],"higher":[109],"amount":[110],"trades":[112],"lower":[115],"standard":[116],"deviation":[117],"price,":[120],"rule":[125],"seems":[126],"a":[129,133],"clear":[130],"advantage":[131],"first":[134],"view.":[135],"Taking":[136],"error":[139],"independent":[142],"variable,":[143],"straightforward":[149],"depend":[151],"environment":[154],"actors.":[156]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-07-29T14:22:42.915294","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}