{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7172272548","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2607.29550","title":"Beyond Resilience: Antifragility in Critical Infrastructure Cybersecurity","display_name":"Beyond Resilience: Antifragility in Critical Infrastructure Cybersecurity","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-07-31","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7172272548","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2607.29550"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2607.29550","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2607.29550","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2607.29550","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5135121101","display_name":"Stephen Flowerday","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4591-3802"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Flowerday, Stephen","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5022613150","display_name":"Mauricio Papa","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0000-5628-0548"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Papa, Mauricio","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5057152376","display_name":"Ethan Flowerday","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8155-2696"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Flowerday, Ethan","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11807","display_name":"Infrastructure Resilience and Vulnerability Analysis","score":0.7452999949455261,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2205","display_name":"Civil and Structural Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11807","display_name":"Infrastructure Resilience and Vulnerability Analysis","score":0.7452999949455261,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2205","display_name":"Civil and Structural Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10917","display_name":"Smart Grid Security and Resilience","score":0.09669999778270721,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2207","display_name":"Control and Systems Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10734","display_name":"Information and Cyber Security","score":0.03610000014305115,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1710","display_name":"Information Systems"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bounded-function","display_name":"Bounded function","score":0.5947999954223633},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/critical-infrastructure","display_name":"Critical infrastructure","score":0.5774000287055969},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/percentile","display_name":"Percentile","score":0.45239999890327454},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/fragility","display_name":"Fragility","score":0.4336000084877014},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/baseline","display_name":"Baseline (sea)","score":0.39480000734329224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cyber-attack","display_name":"Cyber-attack","score":0.35030001401901245},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/data-breach","display_name":"Data breach","score":0.3483999967575073}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C34388435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2267362","display_name":"Bounded function","level":2,"score":0.5947999954223633},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C29852176","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q373338","display_name":"Critical infrastructure","level":2,"score":0.5774000287055969},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C38652104","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3510521","display_name":"Computer security","level":1,"score":0.46959999203681946},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C122048520","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2913954","display_name":"Percentile","level":2,"score":0.45239999890327454},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C80191262","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5477668","display_name":"Fragility","level":2,"score":0.4336000084877014},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.42989999055862427},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.4133000075817108},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C12725497","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q810247","display_name":"Baseline (sea)","level":2,"score":0.39480000734329224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C201307755","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4071928","display_name":"Cyber-attack","level":2,"score":0.35030001401901245},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165609540","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1172486","display_name":"Data breach","level":2,"score":0.3483999967575073},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C85973986","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1091731","display_name":"Exploratory research","level":2,"score":0.3409000039100647},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C120936955","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2155640","display_name":"Empirical research","level":2,"score":0.3336000144481659},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42475967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194292","display_name":"Operations research","level":1,"score":0.30790001153945923},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.3012999892234802},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2984734790","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1192297","display_name":"Disruptive technology","level":2,"score":0.29109999537467957},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.2840999960899353},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C1273860","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2517710","display_name":"Diseconomies of scale","level":3,"score":0.27489998936653137},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162118730","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128453","display_name":"Actuarial science","level":1,"score":0.2671000063419342},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.2587999999523163},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C156325361","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1152864","display_name":"Grounded theory","level":3,"score":0.2506999969482422},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C79974875","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q483639","display_name":"Cloud computing","level":2,"score":0.25029999017715454}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2607.29550","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2607.29550","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2607.29550","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2607.29550","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.6444704532623291,"display_name":"Industry, innovation and infrastructure","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/9"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Critical":[0],"infrastructure":[1,34],"cybersecurity":[2],"increasingly":[3],"requires":[4],"frameworks":[5],"that":[6],"move":[7],"beyond":[8],"recovery":[9],"toward":[10],"bounded":[11,46],"improvement":[12],"under":[13],"disruption,":[14],"yet":[15],"empirically":[16],"grounded":[17],"theories":[18],"for":[19,32,175],"operational":[20],"technology":[21],"remain":[22],"limited.":[23],"This":[24],"paper":[25],"develops":[26],"a":[27,39,45,61,111],"Theory":[28],"of":[29,64,92,114,136,166],"Antifragility":[30],"(AFT)":[31],"critical":[33],"(CI)":[35],"cybersecurity,":[36],"anchored":[37],"in":[38],"five-state":[40],"Resilient":[41],"System":[42],"Model":[43],"and":[44,53,77,82,116,182],"mathematical":[47],"definition":[48],"based":[49],"on":[50],"Jensen":[51],"gain":[52],"post-disruption":[54],"gain.":[55,168],"A":[56],"two-layer":[57],"empirical":[58],"design":[59],"pairs":[60],"CI-relevant":[62],"subset":[63],"the":[65,71,133,170],"CISSM":[66],"Cyber":[67],"Events":[68],"Database":[69],"with":[70,110],"HAI":[72],"hardware-in-the-loop":[73],"industrial":[74],"control":[75],"dataset":[76],"tests":[78],"three":[79],"confirmatory":[80],"hypotheses":[81],"one":[83],"exploratory":[84],"proposition.":[85],"OT-adjacent":[86],"sectors":[87,99],"show":[88],"significantly":[89,151],"higher":[90],"shares":[91],"disruptive":[93],"or":[94],"mixed":[95],"events":[96],"than":[97,107,128,141,164],"comparison":[98],"(65.3":[100],"percent":[101],"versus":[102],"46.8":[103],"percent,":[104],"p":[105,156],"less":[106,140],"0.001),":[108],"together":[109],"greater":[112],"concentration":[113],"physical-attack":[115],"data-attack":[117],"subtypes.":[118],"In":[119],"HAI,":[120],"attack-labeled":[121],"observations":[122,130],"were":[123],"7.43":[124],"times":[125],"more":[126],"likely":[127],"normal":[129],"to":[131],"exceed":[132],"95th":[134],"percentile":[135],"baseline":[137],"deviation":[138,149],"(p":[139],"0.001).":[142],"Across":[143],"successive":[144],"attack":[145],"windows,":[146],"mean":[147],"process-state":[148],"declined":[150],"(Spearman":[152],"rho":[153],"=":[154,157],"-0.688,":[155],"0.007),":[158],"indicating":[159],"measurable":[160],"response":[161],"variation":[162],"rather":[163],"proof":[165],"adaptive":[167],"Together,":[169],"findings":[171],"establish":[172],"two":[173],"prerequisites":[174],"future":[176],"antifragility":[177],"testing:":[178],"differentiated":[179],"fragility":[180],"burden":[181],"process-level":[183],"perturbation":[184],"observability.":[185]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-08-04T08:18:43.703281","created_date":"2026-08-04T00:00:00"}
