{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7166111328","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.27277","title":"EO-WM: A Physically Informed World Model for Probabilistic Earth Observation Forecasting","display_name":"EO-WM: A Physically Informed World Model for Probabilistic Earth Observation Forecasting","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-06-25","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7166111328","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.27277"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2606.27277","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.27277","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.27277","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5139427395","display_name":"Junwei Luo","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Luo, Junwei","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5139416731","display_name":"Shuai Yuan","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Yuan, Shuai","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5139422046","display_name":"Zhenya Yang","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Yang, Zhenya","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5139449151","display_name":"Yansheng Li","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Li, Yansheng","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5139406106","display_name":"Zhe Liu","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Liu, Zhe","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5003608372","display_name":"Hongyun Zhao","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1251-3888"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Zhao, Hengshuang","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10111","display_name":"Remote Sensing in Agriculture","score":0.7466999888420105,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2303","display_name":"Ecology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10111","display_name":"Remote Sensing in Agriculture","score":0.7466999888420105,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2303","display_name":"Ecology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10689","display_name":"Remote-Sensing Image Classification","score":0.047600001096725464,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2214","display_name":"Media Technology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10766","display_name":"Urban Heat Island Mitigation","score":0.0272000003606081,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2305","display_name":"Environmental Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-logic","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","score":0.604200005531311},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forcing","display_name":"Forcing (mathematics)","score":0.5824000239372253},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/benchmark","display_name":"Benchmark (surveying)","score":0.5490000247955322},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecast-skill","display_name":"Forecast skill","score":0.4869000017642975},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/weather-forecasting","display_name":"Weather forecasting","score":0.4812999963760376},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/numerical-weather-prediction","display_name":"Numerical weather prediction","score":0.4657999873161316},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/anomaly","display_name":"Anomaly (physics)","score":0.43779999017715454},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-forecasting","display_name":"Probabilistic forecasting","score":0.4334000051021576},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climate-model","display_name":"Climate model","score":0.3653999865055084},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/severe-weather","display_name":"Severe weather","score":0.35920000076293945}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.604200005531311},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C197115733","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1003136","display_name":"Forcing (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.5824000239372253},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185798385","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1161707","display_name":"Benchmark (surveying)","level":2,"score":0.5490000247955322},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.5296000242233276},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C170061395","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5468164","display_name":"Forecast skill","level":2,"score":0.4869000017642975},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.48179998993873596},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21001229","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q182868","display_name":"Weather forecasting","level":2,"score":0.4812999963760376},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C147947694","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q837552","display_name":"Numerical weather prediction","level":2,"score":0.4657999873161316},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.4641999900341034},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C12997251","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q567560","display_name":"Anomaly (physics)","level":2,"score":0.43779999017715454},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C122282355","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7246855","display_name":"Probabilistic forecasting","level":3,"score":0.4334000051021576},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49204034","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52139","display_name":"Climatology","level":1,"score":0.3781000077724457},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C168754636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q620920","display_name":"Climate model","level":3,"score":0.3653999865055084},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C187460315","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q741507","display_name":"Severe weather","level":3,"score":0.35920000076293945},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132651083","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Climate change","level":2,"score":0.34880000352859497},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779662365","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5416694","display_name":"Event (particle physics)","level":2,"score":0.33379998803138733},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C19269812","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q26540","display_name":"Satellite","level":2,"score":0.32760000228881836},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C120954023","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1127277","display_name":"Consensus forecast","level":2,"score":0.32190001010894775},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776459999","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2119376","display_name":"Fidelity","level":2,"score":0.31869998574256897},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166851805","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5468165","display_name":"Forecast verification","level":3,"score":0.3107999861240387},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779343474","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3109175","display_name":"Context (archaeology)","level":2,"score":0.30660000443458557},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39399123","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1348989","display_name":"Earth observation","level":3,"score":0.303600013256073},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776133958","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7918366","display_name":"Vegetation (pathology)","level":2,"score":0.302700012922287},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205537798","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1277161","display_name":"Extreme weather","level":3,"score":0.30239999294281006},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C80368990","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3046459","display_name":"Earth system science","level":2,"score":0.2969000041484833},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781013037","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1433331","display_name":"Nowcasting","level":2,"score":0.2955000102519989},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C12725497","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q810247","display_name":"Baseline (sea)","level":2,"score":0.2937000095844269},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105306849","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q81054","display_name":"Storm","level":2,"score":0.27390000224113464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777129202","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q190107","display_name":"Weather station","level":2,"score":0.2696000039577484},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112353543","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5468162","display_name":"Forecast period","level":4,"score":0.2624000012874603},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.2558000087738037},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C133204551","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q838305","display_name":"Weather Research and Forecasting Model","level":2,"score":0.25279998779296875}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2606.27277","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.27277","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2606.27277","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.27277","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.6225472688674927,"display_name":"Climate action","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Earth":[0,8],"Observation":[1],"(EO)":[2],"forecasting":[3,42],"aims":[4],"to":[5,46,96,148],"predict":[6],"future":[7,69],"surface":[9],"dynamics":[10],"from":[11],"satellite":[12],"observations":[13,48],"under":[14,177,189],"changing":[15],"meteorological":[16,119],"conditions.":[17],"In":[18],"this":[19,23,60],"paper,":[20],"we":[21,162],"view":[22],"task":[24],"as":[25,37,78],"a":[26,38,67,102,112,122,181,210,219],"partially":[27],"observed,":[28],"weather-driven":[29],"world":[30],"modeling":[31],"problem,":[32],"in":[33,200],"which":[34],"weather":[35,76,98,125,191],"acts":[36],"conditioning":[39,80,115,140],"signal,":[40],"while":[41,71,222],"remains":[43],"uncertain":[44],"due":[45],"sparse":[47],"and":[49,82,127,136,142,152,180,213,231],"unobserved":[50],"land-surface":[51],"states.":[52],"However,":[53],"existing":[54,83],"methods":[55,73],"do":[56],"not":[57],"fully":[58],"capture":[59,149],"setting:":[61],"deterministic":[62],"models":[63],"collapse":[64],"uncertainty":[65],"into":[66],"single":[68],"prediction,":[70],"diffusion-based":[72],"typically":[74],"treat":[75],"variables":[77],"undifferentiated":[79],"signals,":[81],"benchmarks":[84,230],"focus":[85],"mainly":[86],"on":[87,225],"reconstruction":[88],"accuracy":[89],"rather":[90],"than":[91],"whether":[92],"forecasts":[93],"respond":[94],"correctly":[95],"changed":[97,190],"forcing.We":[99],"introduce":[100,163],"EO-WM,":[101],"video":[103],"diffusion":[104],"transformer":[105],"for":[106,171,185],"multispectral":[107],"EO":[108],"forecasting.":[109],"EO-WM":[110,196],"incorporates":[111],"physically":[113],"informed":[114],"framework":[116],"that":[117,195],"represents":[118],"forcing":[120,145],"through":[121,138],"climatological":[123],"baseline,":[124],"anomalies,":[126],"cumulative":[128],"physical":[129],"stress":[130],"signals.":[131],"Specifically,":[132],"it":[133],"separates":[134],"baseline":[135],"anomaly":[137],"distinct":[139],"pathways,":[141],"accumulates":[143],"anomalous":[144],"over":[146],"time":[147],"sustained":[150],"heat":[151],"drought":[153],"stress.":[154],"To":[155],"evaluate":[156],"weather-response":[157],"behavior":[158],"beyond":[159],"standard":[160,226],"metrics,":[161],"two":[164],"diagnostic":[165],"benchmarks:":[166],"an":[167],"Extreme":[168],"Summer":[169],"Benchmark":[170,184],"severity-aware":[172],"prediction":[173],"of":[174],"vegetation":[175],"degradation":[176],"extreme":[178],"weather,":[179],"Seasonal":[182],"Matched-Pair":[183],"testing":[186],"response":[187],"fidelity":[188],"forcing.":[192],"Experiments":[193],"show":[194],"reduces":[197],"the":[198],"error":[199],"predicted":[201],"Normalized":[202],"Difference":[203],"Vegetation":[204],"Index":[205],"(NDVI)":[206],"decline":[207],"amplitude":[208],"by":[209,218],"relative":[211,220],"5.63%":[212],"improves":[214],"directional":[215],"hit":[216],"rate":[217],"7.80%,":[221],"remaining":[223],"competitive":[224],"pixel-level":[227],"metrics.":[228],"The":[229],"model":[232],"will":[233],"be":[234],"made":[235],"open-source":[236],"at":[237],"https://github.com/Luo-Z13/EO-WM.":[238]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-07-01T06:00:48.157686","created_date":"2026-06-27T00:00:00"}
