{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7165363909","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.20557","title":"Optimal Deterministic Multicalibration and Omniprediction","display_name":"Optimal Deterministic Multicalibration and Omniprediction","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-06-18","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7165363909","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.20557"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2606.20557","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.20557","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.20557","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5059340647","display_name":"Georgy Noarov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5420-7080"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Noarov, Georgy","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5139013477","display_name":"Aaron Roth","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Roth, Aaron","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12072","display_name":"Machine Learning and Algorithms","score":0.3758000135421753,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12072","display_name":"Machine Learning and Algorithms","score":0.3758000135421753,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10720","display_name":"Complexity and Algorithms in Graphs","score":0.1656000018119812,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1703","display_name":"Computational Theory and Mathematics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11689","display_name":"Adversarial Robustness in Machine Learning","score":0.08640000224113464,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/outcome","display_name":"Outcome (game theory)","score":0.5454999804496765},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/property","display_name":"Property (philosophy)","score":0.5425999760627747},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sample","display_name":"Sample (material)","score":0.5304999947547913},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/trustworthiness","display_name":"Trustworthiness","score":0.5044999718666077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/deterministic-algorithm","display_name":"Deterministic algorithm","score":0.4242999851703644},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sequence","display_name":"Sequence (biology)","score":0.37700000405311584},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sample-size-determination","display_name":"Sample size determination","score":0.3400000035762787},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/group","display_name":"Group (periodic table)","score":0.323199987411499},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sample-mean-and-sample-covariance","display_name":"Sample mean and sample covariance","score":0.32100000977516174}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.5629000067710876},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C148220186","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7111912","display_name":"Outcome (game theory)","level":2,"score":0.5454999804496765},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C189950617","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q937228","display_name":"Property (philosophy)","level":2,"score":0.5425999760627747},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C198531522","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q485146","display_name":"Sample (material)","level":2,"score":0.5304999947547913},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153701036","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q659974","display_name":"Trustworthiness","level":2,"score":0.5044999718666077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C13533509","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1064349","display_name":"Deterministic algorithm","level":2,"score":0.4242999851703644},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126255220","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q141495","display_name":"Mathematical optimization","level":1,"score":0.4065999984741211},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.39250001311302185},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778112365","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3511065","display_name":"Sequence (biology)","level":2,"score":0.37700000405311584},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11413529","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8366","display_name":"Algorithm","level":1,"score":0.36739999055862427},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C129848803","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2564360","display_name":"Sample size determination","level":2,"score":0.3400000035762787},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781311116","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q83306","display_name":"Group (periodic table)","level":2,"score":0.323199987411499},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C181243257","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1693522","display_name":"Sample mean and sample covariance","level":3,"score":0.32100000977516174},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778445095","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q18354077","display_name":"Sample complexity","level":2,"score":0.31349998712539673},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C179799912","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q205084","display_name":"Computational complexity theory","level":2,"score":0.3107999861240387},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C181789720","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4812191","display_name":"Asymptotically optimal algorithm","level":2,"score":0.3102000057697296},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780813799","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3274237","display_name":"Zero (linguistics)","level":2,"score":0.28760001063346863},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3020318244","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4812187","display_name":"Large sample","level":2,"score":0.2842999994754791},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86426650","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7452504","display_name":"Sequential estimation","level":2,"score":0.2761000096797943},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780586882","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7520643","display_name":"Simple (philosophy)","level":2,"score":0.27309998869895935},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C178197554","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1099110","display_name":"Sufficient statistic","level":2,"score":0.2711000144481659},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C79772020","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5159264","display_name":"Conditional independence","level":2,"score":0.2676999866962433},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C91575142","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1971426","display_name":"Optimal control","level":2,"score":0.2662000060081482},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C80478641","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q195771","display_name":"Sequential analysis","level":2,"score":0.25589999556541443},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C87007009","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q210832","display_name":"Statistical hypothesis testing","level":2,"score":0.2556000053882599},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162392398","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q272404","display_name":"Finite set","level":2,"score":0.25220000743865967},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204243189","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1363085","display_name":"Randomization","level":3,"score":0.25209999084472656}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2606.20557","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.20557","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2606.20557","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.20557","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"A":[0],"model":[1],"is":[2,13,38,47,87],"multicalibrated":[3],"on":[4,20],"a":[5,39,48,113,119],"collection":[6],"of":[7,51,145],"group":[8],"weights":[9],"$G$":[10],"if":[11],"it":[12],"calibrated":[14],"--":[15,23],"i.e.":[16],"unbiased":[17],"even":[18],"conditional":[19],"its":[21],"prediction":[22],"not":[24],"just":[25],"overall,":[26],"but":[27],"also":[28,151],"after":[29],"reweighting":[30],"contexts":[31],"by":[32,98,111,165],"each":[33],"$g":[34],"\\in":[35],"G$.":[36],"It":[37],"useful":[40],"property":[41],"for":[42,70,89],"many":[43],"downstream":[44],"applications":[45],"and":[46,100,155,167],"basic":[49],"desideratum":[50],"trustworthy":[52],"machine":[53],"learning.":[54],"Before":[55],"this":[56,108,150],"work,":[57],"all":[58],"predictors":[59,76,131],"known":[60,78],"to":[61,127,139],"attain":[62],"the":[63,125],"minimax-optimal":[64,114],"$\\widetilde":[65],"O(\\varepsilon^{-3})$":[66],"sample":[67,83,91,159],"complexity":[68,92],"rate":[69],"$\\varepsilon$-multicalibration":[71],"were":[72,77],"randomized,":[73],"while":[74],"deterministic":[75,120,130,153],"only":[79],"with":[80,137,157],"substantially":[81],"worse":[82],"complexity.":[84],"Whether":[85],"randomization":[86],"necessary":[88],"optimal":[90,129,158],"in":[93,102],"multicalibration":[94,115],"was":[95],"explicitly":[96],"asked":[97],"[CLNR26]":[99],"implicitly":[101],"several":[103],"prior":[104],"works.":[105],"We":[106,122],"resolve":[107],"open":[109,162],"problem":[110],"giving":[112],"algorithm":[116,126],"that":[117,132],"outputs":[118],"predictor.":[121],"then":[123],"generalize":[124],"produce":[128],"satisfy":[133],"outcome":[134],"indistinguishability":[135],"(OI)":[136],"respect":[138],"finite":[140],"or":[141],"finitely":[142],"covered":[143],"collections":[144],"tests.":[146],"As":[147],"an":[148],"application,":[149],"gives":[152],"omnipredictors":[154],"panpredictors":[156],"complexity,":[160],"resolving":[161],"problems":[163],"posed":[164],"[OKK25]":[166],"[BHHLZ25].":[168]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-07-01T06:00:48.157686","created_date":"2026-06-20T00:00:00"}