{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7165128196","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.18598","title":"Optimizing Lithium Production Decisions under Geological, Demand, and Pricing Uncertainties: A POMDP Framework for Multi-Objective Decision Making","display_name":"Optimizing Lithium Production Decisions under Geological, Demand, and Pricing Uncertainties: A POMDP Framework for Multi-Objective Decision Making","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-06-17","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7165128196","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.18598"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2606.18598","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.18598","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.18598","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5123658695","display_name":"Anna Edmonds","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Edmonds, Anna C.","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5138914553","display_name":"Mansur M. Arief","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Arief, Mansur M.","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5017900125","display_name":"Robert J. Moss","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2403-454X"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Moss, Robert J.","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5136116862","display_name":"Mykel J. Kochenderfer","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Kochenderfer, Mykel J.","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5136093373","display_name":"Jef Caers","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Caers, Jef","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11976","display_name":"Capital Investment and Risk Analysis","score":0.36480000615119934,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11976","display_name":"Capital Investment and Risk Analysis","score":0.36480000615119934,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13065","display_name":"Mining Techniques and Economics","score":0.19089999794960022,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2207","display_name":"Control and Systems Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11413","display_name":"Risk and Portfolio Optimization","score":0.1429000049829483,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/heuristics","display_name":"Heuristics","score":0.7041000127792358},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/production","display_name":"Production (economics)","score":0.5978000164031982},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/partially-observable-markov-decision-process","display_name":"Partially observable Markov decision process","score":0.5874999761581421},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/process","display_name":"Process (computing)","score":0.4880000054836273},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/heuristic","display_name":"Heuristic","score":0.4763999879360199},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/frame","display_name":"Frame (networking)","score":0.41280001401901245},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/production-planning","display_name":"Production planning","score":0.38850000500679016},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/markov-process","display_name":"Markov process","score":0.3452000021934509}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127705205","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5748245","display_name":"Heuristics","level":2,"score":0.7041000127792358},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.6137999892234802},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778348673","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q739302","display_name":"Production (economics)","level":2,"score":0.5978000164031982},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17098449","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q176814","display_name":"Partially observable Markov decision process","level":4,"score":0.5874999761581421},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C98045186","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q205663","display_name":"Process (computing)","level":2,"score":0.4880000054836273},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C173801870","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q201413","display_name":"Heuristic","level":2,"score":0.4763999879360199},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126042441","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1324888","display_name":"Frame (networking)","level":2,"score":0.41280001401901245},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42475967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194292","display_name":"Operations research","level":1,"score":0.39579999446868896},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777909354","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1386523","display_name":"Production planning","level":3,"score":0.38850000500679016},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126255220","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q141495","display_name":"Mathematical optimization","level":1,"score":0.36489999294281006},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159886148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q176645","display_name":"Markov process","level":2,"score":0.3452000021934509},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C106189395","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q176789","display_name":"Markov decision process","level":3,"score":0.3336000144481659},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C48103436","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q599031","display_name":"State (computer science)","level":2,"score":0.33169999718666077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18762648","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q42213","display_name":"Work (physics)","level":2,"score":0.31839999556541443},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C184977646","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q15104297","display_name":"Open-pit mining","level":2,"score":0.3068000078201294},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778541603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q152763","display_name":"Lithium (medication)","level":2,"score":0.28760001063346863},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C28901747","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q177571","display_name":"Decision theory","level":2,"score":0.2831000089645386},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779343474","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3109175","display_name":"Context (archaeology)","level":2,"score":0.27160000801086426},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C115988155","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3262192","display_name":"Decision problem","level":2,"score":0.2549999952316284},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.251800000667572},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C150325174","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4335500","display_name":"Optimal decision","level":3,"score":0.25060001015663147}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2606.18598","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.18598","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2606.18598","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.18598","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16","display_name":"Peace, Justice and strong institutions","score":0.43161383271217346}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Decision":[0],"making":[1],"in":[2,72,75,198],"lithium":[3,45,158],"production":[4,15,114],"is":[5],"challenging,":[6],"whether":[7],"from":[8,43],"an":[9],"investor's":[10],"perspective":[11],"or":[12,77],"a":[13,107,122],"strategic":[14],"standpoint.":[16],"Determining":[17],"which":[18,111],"mines":[19],"to":[20,24,47,61,81,105,115,136,156],"open":[21,25,106],"and":[22,31,58,88,103,129,164,170,179,188,202],"when":[23,102],"them":[26],"involves":[27],"not":[28,68,100],"only":[29,101],"geological":[30],"price":[32,159],"uncertainties,":[33],"but":[34,109],"also":[35,110],"complexities":[36],"around":[37],"the":[38,119,182,195],"choice":[39],"of":[40,55,113],"extraction":[41,46,89],"method,":[42],"direct":[44],"hard":[48],"rock":[49],"mining.":[50],"Prior":[51],"work":[52],"explored":[53],"models":[54,66,87,93],"this":[56],"problem":[57,120],"different":[59,78,85,200],"methods":[60,135],"optimize":[62],"mining":[63,79],"decisions;":[64],"these":[65,92],"did":[67],"account":[69],"for":[70,98],"uncertainty":[71,74,172],"pricing,":[73],"demand,":[76],"technologies":[80],"extract":[82],"lithium.":[83],"Incorporating":[84],"pricing":[86,201],"technology":[90,180],"into":[91],"enables":[94],"more":[95,189],"robust":[96],"strategies":[97],"determining":[99],"where":[104],"mine,":[108],"method":[112],"pursue.":[116],"We":[117],"frame":[118],"as":[121],"partially":[123],"observable":[124],"Markov":[125],"decision":[126,139],"process":[127],"(POMDP)":[128],"solve":[130],"using":[131],"belief":[132,167],"state":[133,168],"planning":[134,169],"get":[137],"optimal":[138],"making.":[140],"In":[141],"our":[142],"study,":[143],"we":[144],"show":[145],"that":[146],"POMDP":[147],"solvers":[148],"outperform":[149],"human":[150],"inspired":[151],"heuristics":[152],"by":[153],"dynamically":[154],"adapting":[155],"shifting":[157],"regimes":[160],"(static,":[161],"linear,":[162],"exponential,":[163],"stochastic)":[165],"through":[166],"explicit":[171],"management.":[173],"By":[174],"optimally":[175],"sequencing":[176],"exploration,":[177],"production,":[178],"choice,":[181],"framework":[183],"achieves":[184],"higher":[185],"demand":[186],"fulfillment":[187],"balanced":[190],"economic":[191],"environmental":[192],"outcomes":[193],"over":[194],"projects":[196],"lifetime":[197],"all":[199],"deposit":[203],"scenarios.":[204]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-07-01T06:00:48.157686","created_date":"2026-06-19T00:00:00"}