{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7164571529","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.12997","title":"Reliability of Probabilistic Emulation of Physical Systems","display_name":"Reliability of Probabilistic Emulation of Physical Systems","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-06-11","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7164571529","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.12997"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2606.12997","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.12997","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.12997","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5087754264","display_name":"Sam F. Greenbury","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4452-2006"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210128584","display_name":"The Alan Turing Institute","ror":"https://ror.org/035dkdb55","country_code":"GB","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210128584"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Greenbury, Sam F.","raw_affiliation_strings":["The Alan Turing Institute"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"The Alan Turing Institute","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210128584"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5017783470","display_name":"Radka Jersakova","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6846-7158"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210128584","display_name":"The Alan Turing Institute","ror":"https://ror.org/035dkdb55","country_code":"GB","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210128584"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jersakova, Radka","raw_affiliation_strings":["The Alan Turing Institute"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"The Alan Turing Institute","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210128584"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5126088809","display_name":"Paolo Conti","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1286353243","display_name":"Autodesk (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/00pkt4594","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1286353243"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210128584","display_name":"The Alan Turing Institute","ror":"https://ror.org/035dkdb55","country_code":"GB","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210128584"]}],"countries":["GB","US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Conti, Paolo","raw_affiliation_strings":["The Alan Turing Institute","Autodesk Research"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"The Alan Turing Institute","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210128584"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Autodesk Research","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1286353243"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5087519505","display_name":"Marjan Famili","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210128584","display_name":"The Alan Turing Institute","ror":"https://ror.org/035dkdb55","country_code":"GB","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210128584"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210148588","display_name":"Cox College","ror":"https://ror.org/04p5ezw03","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210148588"]}],"countries":["GB","US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Famili, Marjan","raw_affiliation_strings":["The Alan Turing Institute","PhysicsX"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"The Alan Turing Institute","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210128584"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"PhysicsX","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210148588"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5019272905","display_name":"Christopher Iliffe Sprague","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4943-2501"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210128584","display_name":"The Alan Turing Institute","ror":"https://ror.org/035dkdb55","country_code":"GB","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210128584"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Sprague, Christopher Iliffe","raw_affiliation_strings":["The Alan Turing Institute","Orbital"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"The Alan Turing Institute","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210128584"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Orbital","institution_ids":[]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5110593869","display_name":"E Harold Brown","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210128584","display_name":"The Alan Turing Institute","ror":"https://ror.org/035dkdb55","country_code":"GB","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210128584"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I91136226","display_name":"University of Sheffield","ror":"https://ror.org/05krs5044","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I91136226"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Brown, Edwin","raw_affiliation_strings":["The Alan Turing Institute","University of Sheffield"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"The Alan Turing Institute","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210128584"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Sheffield","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I91136226"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5138501518","display_name":"Jason D. McEwen","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210128584","display_name":"The Alan Turing Institute","ror":"https://ror.org/035dkdb55","country_code":"GB","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210128584"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I45129253","display_name":"University College London","ror":"https://ror.org/02jx3x895","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I124357947","https://openalex.org/I45129253"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"McEwen, Jason D.","raw_affiliation_strings":["The Alan Turing Institute","University College London"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"The Alan Turing Institute","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210128584"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"University College London","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I45129253"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":5,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11206","display_name":"Model Reduction and Neural Networks","score":0.31709998846054077,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3109","display_name":"Statistical and Nonlinear Physics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/31","display_name":"Physics and Astronomy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11206","display_name":"Model Reduction and Neural Networks","score":0.31709998846054077,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3109","display_name":"Statistical and Nonlinear Physics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/31","display_name":"Physics and Astronomy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10775","display_name":"Generative Adversarial Networks and Image Synthesis","score":0.15060000121593475,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1707","display_name":"Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10848","display_name":"Advanced Multi-Objective Optimization Algorithms","score":0.08540000021457672,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1703","display_name":"Computational Theory and Mathematics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-logic","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","score":0.7125999927520752},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/reliability","display_name":"Reliability (semiconductor)","score":0.6700999736785889},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/emulation","display_name":"Emulation","score":0.6316999793052673},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/generative-grammar","display_name":"Generative grammar","score":0.47690001130104065},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistical-model","display_name":"Statistical model","score":0.46549999713897705},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/inference","display_name":"Inference","score":0.44609999656677246},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/modular-design","display_name":"Modular design","score":0.4429999887943268},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/generative-model","display_name":"Generative model","score":0.42669999599456787}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.7125999927520752},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.6965000033378601},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43214815","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7310987","display_name":"Reliability (semiconductor)","level":3,"score":0.6700999736785889},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149810388","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5374873","display_name":"Emulation","level":2,"score":0.6316999793052673},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.5753999948501587},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39890363","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36108","display_name":"Generative grammar","level":2,"score":0.47690001130104065},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C114289077","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3284399","display_name":"Statistical model","level":2,"score":0.46549999713897705},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776214188","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q408386","display_name":"Inference","level":2,"score":0.44609999656677246},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C101468663","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1620158","display_name":"Modular design","level":2,"score":0.4429999887943268},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.4316999912261963},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C167966045","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5532625","display_name":"Generative model","level":3,"score":0.42669999599456787},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C32230216","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7882499","display_name":"Uncertainty quantification","level":2,"score":0.3885999917984009},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C45804977","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7239673","display_name":"Predictive modelling","level":2,"score":0.3716000020503998},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159877910","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2202883","display_name":"Autoregressive model","level":2,"score":0.3626999855041504},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.34459999203681946},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.30219998955726624},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185874996","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q269699","display_name":"Interdependence","level":2,"score":0.2971000075340271},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134261354","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q938438","display_name":"Statistical inference","level":2,"score":0.2937999963760376},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C917703","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7239668","display_name":"Predictive inference","level":5,"score":0.2865999937057495},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C116672817","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1454986","display_name":"Physical system","level":2,"score":0.2757999897003174},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177769412","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q278090","display_name":"Prior probability","level":3,"score":0.27559998631477356},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C103402496","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1106171","display_name":"Prediction interval","level":2,"score":0.27250000834465027},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C160234255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812535","display_name":"Bayesian inference","level":3,"score":0.2614000141620636},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149441793","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q200726","display_name":"Probability distribution","level":2,"score":0.2606000006198883}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2606.12997","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.12997","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2606.12997","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.12997","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Two":[0],"dominant":[1],"approaches":[2,39,66],"have":[3,40],"emerged":[4],"for":[5,157,233],"generating":[6],"probabilistic":[7,85],"forecasts":[8],"of":[9,22,47,84,92,124],"physical":[10,71],"systems:":[11],"generative":[12,126,141,198,221],"models,":[13],"such":[14],"as":[15],"diffusion":[16],"or":[17],"flow":[18],"matching;":[19],"and":[20,77,99,114,200,211,223],"ensembles":[21,104,177,202],"deterministic":[23],"models":[24,127,142,199,222],"with":[25,168,192],"stochasticity":[26],"injected,":[27],"trained":[28,144,179],"using":[29],"the":[30,45,82,89,121,133],"continuous":[31],"ranked":[32],"probability":[33],"score":[34],"(CRPS)":[35],"loss.":[36],"While":[37],"both":[38,65,111,220],"demonstrated":[41],"strong":[42],"predictive":[43,93,205],"accuracy,":[44],"reliability":[46,83],"their":[48],"uncertainties":[49,109],"has":[50],"not":[51,185],"been":[52],"systematically":[53],"assessed.":[54],"We":[55,80],"address":[56],"this":[57],"gap":[58],"by":[59,87],"developing":[60],"a":[61,129,149,187,216,228],"framework":[62,218],"to":[63,164,194],"evaluate":[64],"across":[67],"diverse":[68],"2D":[69],"spatiotemporal":[70],"systems,":[72],"under":[73],"matched":[74],"model":[75],"size":[76],"computational":[78,100],"budget.":[79],"assess":[81],"emulation":[86],"inspecting":[88],"empirical":[90],"coverage":[91,119,163,191],"intervals,":[94],"while":[95],"also":[96],"considering":[97],"accuracy":[98],"efficiency":[101],"metrics.":[102],"CRPS-trained":[103,165,176,201,224],"typically":[105],"achieve":[106],"more":[107],"reliable":[108],"on":[110],"single-step":[112],"prediction":[113],"autoregressive":[115],"rollouts,":[116],"demonstrating":[117],"better":[118],"than":[120,148],"standard":[122],"alternative":[123],"training":[125],"in":[128,145,180,190],"latent":[130,151,181],"space.":[131,196],"Moreover,":[132],"CRPS":[134],"approach":[135],"offers":[136],"significantly":[137],"faster":[138],"inference.":[139],"When":[140],"are":[143,178],"ambient":[146,195],"rather":[147],"compressed":[150],"space,":[152],"which":[153],"is":[154],"often":[155],"infeasible":[156],"high-dimensional":[158],"problems,":[159],"they":[160,183],"exhibit":[161],"comparable":[162],"ensembles,":[166,225],"though":[167],"substantially":[169],"larger":[170],"inference":[171],"latency.":[172],"In":[173],"contrast,":[174],"when":[175],"space":[182],"do":[184],"show":[186],"marked":[188],"degradation":[189],"respect":[193],"Both":[197],"demonstrate":[203],"good":[204],"accuracy.":[206],"To":[207],"facilitate":[208],"future":[209],"research":[210],"application,":[212],"we":[213],"release":[214],"AutoCast,":[215],"modular":[217],"implementing":[219],"alongside":[226],"AutoSim,":[227],"flexible":[229],"dataset":[230],"generation":[231],"package":[232],"rapid":[234],"prototyping.":[235]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-07-01T06:00:48.157686","created_date":"2026-06-13T00:00:00"}