{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7164539559","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.12990","title":"Exposure Bias as Epistemic Underidentification in Recursive Forecasting","display_name":"Exposure Bias as Epistemic Underidentification in Recursive Forecasting","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-06-11","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7164539559","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.12990"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2606.12990","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.12990","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.12990","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5040940010","display_name":"Riku Green","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0006-1215-1473"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Green, Riku","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5137906205","display_name":"Zahraa S. Abdallah","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Abdallah, Zahraa S.","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5137879971","display_name":"Telmo M Silva Filho","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Filho, Telmo M Silva","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12026","display_name":"Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)","score":0.2685000002384186,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12026","display_name":"Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)","score":0.2685000002384186,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11986","display_name":"Scientific Computing and Data Management","score":0.12370000034570694,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1802","display_name":"Information Systems and Management"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11273","display_name":"Advanced Graph Neural Networks","score":0.06319999694824219,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/observability","display_name":"Observability","score":0.713100016117096},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/framing","display_name":"Framing (construction)","score":0.6039000153541565},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayes-theorem","display_name":"Bayes' theorem","score":0.5641999840736389},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/binary-number","display_name":"Binary number","score":0.4300000071525574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/frame-problem","display_name":"Frame problem","score":0.42570000886917114},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/state","display_name":"State (computer science)","score":0.40700000524520874},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/uncertainty-quantification","display_name":"Uncertainty quantification","score":0.4041000008583069},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/automaton","display_name":"Automaton","score":0.36640000343322754},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/conditional-probability","display_name":"Conditional probability","score":0.3352000117301941}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C36299963","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1369844","display_name":"Observability","level":2,"score":0.713100016117096},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C169087156","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2131593","display_name":"Framing (construction)","level":2,"score":0.6039000153541565},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C207201462","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q182505","display_name":"Bayes' theorem","level":3,"score":0.5641999840736389},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.475600004196167},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C48372109","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3913","display_name":"Binary number","level":2,"score":0.4300000071525574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C5065155","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1185775","display_name":"Frame problem","level":2,"score":0.42570000886917114},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C48103436","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q599031","display_name":"State (computer science)","level":2,"score":0.40700000524520874},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C32230216","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7882499","display_name":"Uncertainty quantification","level":2,"score":0.4041000008583069},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.3752000033855438},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112505250","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q787116","display_name":"Automaton","level":2,"score":0.36640000343322754},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.34200000762939453},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.335999995470047},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44492722","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q327069","display_name":"Conditional probability","level":2,"score":0.3352000117301941},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780586882","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7520643","display_name":"Simple (philosophy)","level":2,"score":0.3165999948978424},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C113336015","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q574010","display_name":"Complete information","level":2,"score":0.3109999895095825},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177769412","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q278090","display_name":"Prior probability","level":3,"score":0.30640000104904175},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C80444323","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2878974","display_name":"Theoretical computer science","level":1,"score":0.305400013923645},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780704645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9251458","display_name":"Observer (physics)","level":2,"score":0.2946999967098236},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43555835","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2300258","display_name":"Conditional probability distribution","level":2,"score":0.2939999997615814},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C108170787","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3951828","display_name":"Agency (philosophy)","level":2,"score":0.28769999742507935},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149441793","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q200726","display_name":"Probability distribution","level":2,"score":0.2847999930381775},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124681953","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q339062","display_name":"Decomposition","level":2,"score":0.28110000491142273},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C128913409","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3566063","display_name":"Belief revision","level":2,"score":0.27900001406669617},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44725695","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q288156","display_name":"Normative","level":2,"score":0.2743000090122223},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780695315","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3799040","display_name":"Unobservable","level":2,"score":0.2671999931335449},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C79772020","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5159264","display_name":"Conditional independence","level":2,"score":0.25850000977516174},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C110121322","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q865811","display_name":"Distribution (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.25380000472068787}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2606.12990","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.12990","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2606.12990","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.12990","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/4","score":0.6451285481452942,"display_name":"Quality Education"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Recursive":[0],"multi-step":[1],"forecasting":[2],"is":[3,25,38],"usually":[4],"framed":[5],"as":[6,174],"distribution":[7],"shift:":[8],"models":[9],"are":[10,76,164],"trained":[11],"on":[12,17,55],"observed":[13,56],"histories":[14],"but":[15,140],"deployed":[16,63],"their":[18],"own":[19],"predictions.":[20],"We":[21,83],"show":[22,112],"this":[23,85],"framing":[24],"incomplete":[26],"by":[27,79],"proving":[28],"that,":[29],"under":[30,176],"partial":[31],"observability":[32],"or":[33],"state":[34,81],"truncation,":[35],"recursive":[36,64],"rollout":[37,67,114],"also":[39,141],"an":[40],"epistemic":[41,178],"underidentification":[42],"problem.":[43],"Even":[44],"with":[45,86],"deterministic":[46],"latent":[47],"dynamics,":[48],"one-step":[49],"Bayes":[50],"supervision":[51],"identifies":[52],"behavior":[53],"only":[54,136],"contexts":[57],"and":[58,90,94,106,130],"need":[59],"not":[60,77,135],"identify":[61],"the":[62,144],"predictor":[65],"once":[66],"queries":[68],"self-generated":[69],"induced":[70,87,122,145],"states":[71,88,123,146],"whose":[72],"correct":[73],"local":[74,127,138],"targets":[75],"determined":[78],"numeric":[80],"alone.":[82],"formalize":[84],"$Z$":[89],"provenance":[91,107,154],"variables":[92],"$P$,":[93],"derive":[95],"a":[96,116,125,151],"decomposition":[97],"of":[98],"induced-state":[99,118],"error":[100],"into":[101],"teacher-forcing/rollout":[102],"mismatch,":[103],"representation--class":[104],"approximation,":[105],"information":[108],"gaps.":[109],"Empirically,":[110],"we":[111],"that":[113,120,131],"enters":[115],"distinct":[117,126],"regime,":[119],"fixed":[121],"define":[124],"corrective":[128],"task,":[129],"closed-loop":[132],"gains":[133,163],"arise":[134],"from":[137,142],"adaptation":[139],"changing":[143],"visited":[147],"during":[148],"rollout.":[149],"Using":[150],"simple":[152],"binary":[153],"encoding,":[155],"provenance-aware":[156],"correction":[157],"can":[158],"further":[159],"improve":[160],"performance,":[161],"though":[162],"conditional":[165],"rather":[166],"than":[167],"uniform.":[168],"These":[169],"results":[170],"recast":[171],"exposure":[172],"bias":[173],"reasoning":[175],"self-induced":[177],"uncertainty.":[179]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-07-28T07:46:37.118299","created_date":"2026-06-13T00:00:00"}
