{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7164178337","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.09876","title":"Calibrating Overconfidence Without Sacrificing Confidence: Probe-Conditioned Head Intervention for LLMs","display_name":"Calibrating Overconfidence Without Sacrificing Confidence: Probe-Conditioned Head Intervention for LLMs","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-06-02","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7164178337","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.09876"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2606.09876","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.09876","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.09876","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5138378365","display_name":"Ke Li","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Li, Ke","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5138366657","display_name":"Chongzhe Zhang","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Zhang, Chongzhe","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5138323915","display_name":"Zifan Zeng","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Zeng, Zifan","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5138294413","display_name":"Feng Liu","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0000-3744-4236"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Liu, Feng","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5046208452","display_name":"Qunli Zhang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8701-2551"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Zhang, Qunli","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5138366910","display_name":"Zheng Hu","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Hu, Zheng","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10028","display_name":"Topic Modeling","score":0.46540001034736633,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10028","display_name":"Topic Modeling","score":0.46540001034736633,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12026","display_name":"Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)","score":0.09549999982118607,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11714","display_name":"Multimodal Machine Learning Applications","score":0.07270000129938126,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1707","display_name":"Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/overconfidence-effect","display_name":"Overconfidence effect","score":0.8568000197410583},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/confidence-interval","display_name":"Confidence interval","score":0.5978000164031982},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/intervention","display_name":"Intervention (counseling)","score":0.5575000047683716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/low-confidence","display_name":"Low Confidence","score":0.47279998660087585},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/psychological-intervention","display_name":"Psychological intervention","score":0.4316999912261963},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/calibration","display_name":"Calibration","score":0.3978999853134155},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/upstream","display_name":"Upstream (networking)","score":0.37400001287460327}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C51110983","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q16503490","display_name":"Overconfidence effect","level":2,"score":0.8568000197410583},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44249647","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q208498","display_name":"Confidence interval","level":2,"score":0.5978000164031982},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780665704","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q959298","display_name":"Intervention (counseling)","level":2,"score":0.5575000047683716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2909755999","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4751126","display_name":"Low Confidence","level":2,"score":0.47279998660087585},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C27415008","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7256382","display_name":"Psychological intervention","level":2,"score":0.4316999912261963},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165838908","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q736777","display_name":"Calibration","level":2,"score":0.3978999853134155},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C191172861","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7899321","display_name":"Upstream (networking)","level":2,"score":0.37400001287460327},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C183115368","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q856577","display_name":"Weighting","level":2,"score":0.34869998693466187},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.34290000796318054},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C140529851","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5160083","display_name":"Confidence and prediction bands","level":3,"score":0.33820000290870667},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780312720","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5689100","display_name":"Head (geology)","level":2,"score":0.30480000376701355},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.28850001096725464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205606062","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5249645","display_name":"Decoupling (probability)","level":2,"score":0.2770000100135803},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777381055","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q308922","display_name":"Damages","level":2,"score":0.27570000290870667},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C63479239","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7353546","display_name":"Robustness (evolution)","level":3,"score":0.26010000705718994},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C13662513","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5160087","display_name":"Confidence distribution","level":3,"score":0.2563999891281128}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2606.09876","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.09876","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2606.09876","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.09876","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16","display_name":"Peace, Justice and strong institutions","score":0.4931139647960663}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Large":[0],"language":[1],"models":[2],"often":[3],"express":[4],"high":[5],"confidence":[6,25,32,62,73,82,144],"in":[7],"answers":[8],"that":[9,45,126],"are":[10,118],"wrong.":[11],"Standard":[12],"calibration":[13],"remedies":[14],"typically":[15],"act":[16],"globally":[17],"or":[18],"at":[19],"the":[20,140,146],"score":[21],"level,":[22],"reducing":[23],"unwarranted":[24,143],"but":[26],"also":[27,111],"risking":[28],"erosion":[29],"of":[30,79,104,142,148],"warranted":[31,149],"on":[33,113],"correct":[34],"answers.":[35],"We":[36],"introduce":[37],"Probe-Conditioned":[38],"Head":[39],"Intervention":[40],"(PCHI),":[41],"an":[42],"inference-time":[43],"method":[44],"uses":[46],"a":[47,70,87],"frozen":[48],"probe":[49],"to":[50,84,98],"detect":[51],"likely":[52],"wrong-but-confident":[53],"responses":[54],"and":[55,100,120],"conditionally":[56,134],"rescales":[57],"downstream":[58],"attention-head":[59],"outputs":[60],"during":[61],"generation.":[63],"On":[64],"Qwen3-4B-Instruct":[65],"solving":[66],"OpenMathInstruct":[67],"problems":[68],"with":[69],"structured":[71],"binary":[72],"field,":[74],"readout-token":[75,109],"PCHI":[76],"converts":[77],"82.2%":[78],"originally":[80,105],"wrong-yes":[81],"readouts":[83],"$\\texttt{no}$,":[85],"while":[86],"joint":[88],"intervention":[89],"across":[90],"upstream":[91,116],"confidence-template":[92],"tokens":[93],"reduces":[94],"ECE":[95],"from":[96,145],"21.9%":[97],"9.2%":[99],"damages":[101],"only":[102],"5.1%":[103],"correct-yes":[106],"readouts.":[107],"The":[108],"effect":[110],"appears":[112],"Gemma3-4B,":[114],"though":[115],"interventions":[117],"weaker":[119],"more":[121],"mask-dependent.":[122],"These":[123],"results":[124],"show":[125],"verbalized":[127],"overconfidence":[128],"can":[129],"be":[130],"selectively":[131],"reduced":[132],"through":[133],"applied":[135],"internal":[136],"intervention,":[137],"partially":[138],"decoupling":[139],"suppression":[141],"loss":[147],"confidence.":[150]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-07-01T06:00:48.157686","created_date":"2026-06-11T00:00:00"}
