{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7162795692","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.29243","title":"Wait! There's a Way Out: A Decision Mechanism for Forecasting Conversational Derailment","display_name":"Wait! There's a Way Out: A Decision Mechanism for Forecasting Conversational Derailment","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-05-28","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7162795692","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.29243"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.29243","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.29243","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.29243","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5137380057","display_name":"Laerdon Kim","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Kim, Laerdon","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5137371089","display_name":"Vivian Nguyen","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Nguyen, Vivian","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5011012964","display_name":"Cristian Danescu-Niculescu-Mizil","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8533-6627"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Danescu-Niculescu-Mizil, Cristian","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.1655000001192093,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.1655000001192093,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10028","display_name":"Topic Modeling","score":0.13339999318122864,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11704","display_name":"Mobile Crowdsensing and Crowdsourcing","score":0.032600000500679016,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1706","display_name":"Computer Science Applications"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/conversation","display_name":"Conversation","score":0.6035000085830688},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mechanism","display_name":"Mechanism (biology)","score":0.47029998898506165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/component","display_name":"Component (thermodynamics)","score":0.42410001158714294},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/decision-model","display_name":"Decision model","score":0.3903999924659729},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/derailment","display_name":"Derailment","score":0.35670000314712524},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/baseline","display_name":"Baseline (sea)","score":0.3463999927043915},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/task","display_name":"Task (project management)","score":0.3400999903678894},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/relation","display_name":"Relation (database)","score":0.30090001225471497}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777200299","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52943","display_name":"Conversation","level":2,"score":0.6035000085830688},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.541100025177002},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C89611455","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6804646","display_name":"Mechanism (biology)","level":2,"score":0.47029998898506165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C168167062","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1117970","display_name":"Component (thermodynamics)","level":2,"score":0.42410001158714294},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C59594135","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5249242","display_name":"Decision model","level":2,"score":0.3903999924659729},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C197090313","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1331380","display_name":"Derailment","level":3,"score":0.35670000314712524},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C12725497","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q810247","display_name":"Baseline (sea)","level":2,"score":0.3463999927043915},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780451532","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q759676","display_name":"Task (project management)","level":2,"score":0.3400999903678894},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C25343380","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q277521","display_name":"Relation (database)","level":2,"score":0.30090001225471497},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.2980000078678131},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.2928999960422516},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779662365","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5416694","display_name":"Event (particle physics)","level":2,"score":0.2896000146865845},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18762648","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q42213","display_name":"Work (physics)","level":2,"score":0.28690001368522644},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C64869954","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1859747","display_name":"False positive paradox","level":2,"score":0.28360000252723694},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C142853389","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q744778","display_name":"Association (psychology)","level":2,"score":0.27970001101493835},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107327155","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q330268","display_name":"Decision support system","level":2,"score":0.273499995470047},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C197640229","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2534066","display_name":"Predictability","level":2,"score":0.26919999718666077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C176777502","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4774623","display_name":"Anticipation (artificial intelligence)","level":2,"score":0.2687000036239624},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C9354725","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q286017","display_name":"Operationalization","level":2,"score":0.25850000977516174}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.29243","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.29243","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.29243","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.29243","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Peace, Justice and strong institutions","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16","score":0.766423225402832}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Forecasting":[0],"conversational":[1],"derailment":[2,66,113],"is":[3,49,78,118,150],"the":[4,9,47,62,68,74,85,108,121,198],"task":[5],"of":[6,52,65,87,96,200,207],"predicting,":[7],"as":[8,203],"conversation":[10,48],"unfolds,":[11],"whether":[12,31,168],"it":[13],"will":[14],"eventually":[15],"derail":[16],"into":[17,180],"personal":[18],"attacks.":[19],"Since":[20],"forecasting":[21,183,191,208],"models":[22],"operate":[23],"in":[24],"an":[25,34,92],"online":[26],"fashion,":[27],"they":[28,83,146],"must":[29],"decide":[30],"to":[32,40,110,143,152,166,175],"\"trigger\"":[33],"alert":[35],"after":[36],"each":[37],"utterance--for":[38],"example,":[39],"notify":[41],"participants":[42],"or":[43],"a":[44,81,104,159,169,181,204],"moderator":[45],"that":[46,73,130,148,162],"at":[50],"risk":[51],"derailing.":[53],"Existing":[54],"approaches":[55],"make":[56],"this":[57,100,126,156,178,195],"decision":[58,109,142],"solely":[59],"based":[60],"on":[61,125],"estimated":[63],"likelihood":[64,114],"given":[67],"preceding":[69],"utterances,":[70],"implicitly":[71],"assuming":[72],"conversation's":[75],"future":[76,88],"trajectory":[77],"fixed.":[79],"As":[80],"result,":[82],"ignore":[84],"possibility":[86],"recovery":[89],"and":[90],"incur":[91],"unnecessarily":[93],"high":[94],"rate":[95],"false":[97,135,187],"positives.":[98],"In":[99],"work":[101,196],"we":[102],"propose":[103],"method":[105],"for":[106],"decoupling":[107],"trigger":[111,144],"from":[112],"estimation.":[115],"Our":[116],"approach":[117],"inspired":[119],"by":[120,138],"first":[122],"human":[123],"baseline":[124],"task,":[127],"which":[128],"shows":[129],"humans":[131],"achieve":[132],"dramatically":[133],"lower":[134],"positive":[136],"rates":[137],"selectively":[139],"deferring":[140],"their":[141],"when":[145],"anticipate":[147],"tension":[149],"likely":[151],"subside.":[153],"We":[154],"operationalize":[155],"insight":[157],"with":[158],"deferral":[160],"mechanism":[161,179],"uses":[163],"forward-looking":[164],"simulations":[165],"assess":[167],"tense":[170],"moment":[171],"admits":[172],"plausible":[173],"paths":[174],"recovery.":[176],"Incorporating":[177],"state-of-the-art":[182],"model":[184],"substantially":[185],"reduces":[186],"positives":[188],"without":[189],"sacrificing":[190],"accuracy.":[192],"More":[193],"broadly,":[194],"highlights":[197],"value":[199],"treating":[201],"decision-making":[202],"first-class":[205],"component":[206],"systems.":[209]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-07-01T06:00:48.157686","created_date":"2026-05-30T00:00:00"}