{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7162424001","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.25998","title":"Causal methods for LLM development and evaluation","display_name":"Causal methods for LLM development and evaluation","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-05-25","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7162424001","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.25998"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.25998","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.25998","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.25998","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5136992355","display_name":"Dennis Frauen","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Frauen, Dennis","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5137047210","display_name":"Marie Brockschmidt","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Brockschmidt, Marie","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5035671397","display_name":"Konstantin He\u00df","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0003-8552-6588"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Hess, Konstantin","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5022782856","display_name":"Haorui Ma","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ma, Haorui","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5137003825","display_name":"Yuchen Ma","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ma, Yuchen","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5042525157","display_name":"Abdurahman Maarouf","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0000-9174-8230"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Maarouf, Abdurahman","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5137029404","display_name":"Maresa Schr\u00f6der","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Schr\u00f6der, Maresa","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5137007296","display_name":"Jonas Schweisthal","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Schweisthal, Jonas","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5137023897","display_name":"Yuxin Wang","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Wang, Yuxin","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5137051747","display_name":"Athiya Deviyani","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Deviyani, Athiya","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5025828990","display_name":"Sonali Parbhoo","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8400-3732"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Parbhoo, Sonali","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5073514348","display_name":"Rahul G. Krishnan","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7955-3956"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Krishnan, Rahul G.","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5137028529","display_name":"Stefan Feuerriegel","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Feuerriegel, Stefan","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":13,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13910","display_name":"Computational and Text Analysis Methods","score":0.27379998564720154,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3300","display_name":"General Social Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13910","display_name":"Computational and Text Analysis Methods","score":0.27379998564720154,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3300","display_name":"General Social Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10028","display_name":"Topic Modeling","score":0.2578999996185303,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10181","display_name":"Natural Language Processing Techniques","score":0.1720999926328659,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/causal-inference","display_name":"Causal inference","score":0.7688000202178955},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/psychological-intervention","display_name":"Psychological intervention","score":0.48350000381469727},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/causal-model","display_name":"Causal model","score":0.4465000033378601},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/identification","display_name":"Identification (biology)","score":0.4327000081539154},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/causality","display_name":"Causality (physics)","score":0.3921999931335449},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/inference","display_name":"Inference","score":0.3734999895095825},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/causation","display_name":"Causation","score":0.3529999852180481},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/software-deployment","display_name":"Software deployment","score":0.34860000014305115},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/empirical-research","display_name":"Empirical research","score":0.3287999927997589}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C158600405","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5054566","display_name":"Causal inference","level":2,"score":0.7688000202178955},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5727999806404114},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C27415008","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7256382","display_name":"Psychological intervention","level":2,"score":0.48350000381469727},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11671645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5054567","display_name":"Causal model","level":2,"score":0.4465000033378601},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C116834253","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2039217","display_name":"Identification (biology)","level":2,"score":0.4327000081539154},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C64357122","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1149766","display_name":"Causality (physics)","level":2,"score":0.3921999931335449},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112930515","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4389547","display_name":"Risk analysis (engineering)","level":1,"score":0.3855000138282776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2522767166","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2374463","display_name":"Data science","level":1,"score":0.384799987077713},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776214188","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q408386","display_name":"Inference","level":2,"score":0.3734999895095825},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166151441","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4923601","display_name":"Causation","level":2,"score":0.3529999852180481},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105339364","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2297740","display_name":"Software deployment","level":2,"score":0.34860000014305115},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C539667460","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2414942","display_name":"Management science","level":1,"score":0.3443000018596649},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C120936955","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2155640","display_name":"Empirical research","level":2,"score":0.3287999927997589},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162919384","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6883388","display_name":"Development theory","level":2,"score":0.3273000121116638},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.30979999899864197},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C93360035","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17055852","display_name":"Impact evaluation","level":2,"score":0.3021000027656555},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C195094911","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q14167904","display_name":"Process management","level":1,"score":0.2994999885559082},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C116860108","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5054575","display_name":"Causal theory of reference","level":2,"score":0.29510000348091125},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780791683","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q846785","display_name":"Action (physics)","level":2,"score":0.2937999963760376},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77350462","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1125472","display_name":"Confounding","level":2,"score":0.2906999886035919},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C5395021","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1061410","display_name":"Program evaluation","level":2,"score":0.28780001401901245},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C36503486","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11235244","display_name":"Domain (mathematical analysis)","level":2,"score":0.2815000116825104},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C96250715","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q965330","display_name":"Estimation","level":2,"score":0.2712000012397766},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2987525970","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q96374569","display_name":"Causal analysis","level":2,"score":0.26809999346733093},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777855551","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12310021","display_name":"Subject (documents)","level":2,"score":0.267300009727478},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780665704","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q959298","display_name":"Intervention (counseling)","level":2,"score":0.267300009727478},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.26249998807907104},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776542497","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5266672","display_name":"Development (topology)","level":2,"score":0.26170000433921814},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C28719098","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q44946","display_name":"Point (geometry)","level":2,"score":0.2540999948978424}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.25998","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.25998","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.25998","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.25998","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Large":[0],"language":[1],"model":[2,71],"(LLM)":[3],"development":[4,31,111,115,173,195,210],"is":[5,38,98],"currently":[6],"driven":[7],"by":[8],"large-scale":[9],"empirical":[10],"iteration":[11],"over":[12],"data":[13,44],"mixtures,":[14],"reward":[15],"models,":[16],"routing":[17],"strategies,":[18],"and":[19,32,112,127,137,149,155,181,196,211,224],"evaluation":[20,33,130,212],"pipelines.":[21],"Here,":[22],"we":[23,199],"argue":[24,200],"that":[25,201,217],"many":[26],"central":[27],"questions":[28],"in":[29,57,93,169],"LLM":[30,94,110,114,172,194,209],"are":[34,80,91,122,140,204],"inherently":[35],"causal:":[36],"What":[37],"the":[39,170,208,215],"effect":[40],"of":[41],"adding":[42],"a":[43,58,62,67,222],"domain":[45],"during":[46],"pretraining?":[47],"How":[48],"do":[49],"annotator":[50],"preferences":[51],"change":[52,87],"when":[53],"LLMs":[54],"generate":[55],"text":[56],"different":[59],"style?":[60],"Should":[61],"prompt":[63],"be":[64],"routed":[65],"to":[66,82,125],"larger":[68],"or":[69],"smaller":[70],"given":[72],"inference":[73],"cost":[74],"constraints?":[75],"In":[76],"general,":[77],"causal":[78,104,159,167,191,202],"methods":[79,105,157,168,192,203,219],"well-suited":[81],"such":[83,218],"settings":[84],"where":[85],"interventions":[86],"outcomes":[88],"but,":[89],"surprisingly,":[90],"underrepresented":[92],"development.":[95],"Our":[96],"contribution":[97],"threefold:":[99],"(1)":[100],"We":[101,162,184],"explain":[102],"how":[103],"can":[106,220],"help":[107],"develop":[108],"modern":[109],"evaluation:":[113],"relies":[116],"heavily":[117],"on":[118],"logged":[119],"data,":[120],"which":[121],"often":[123],"subject":[124],"confounding":[126],"distribution":[128],"shifts;":[129],"uses":[131],"learned":[132],"but":[133],"potentially":[134,205],"biased":[135],"judges;":[136],"deployment":[138],"environments":[139],"non-stationary.":[141],"These":[142],"conditions":[143],"make":[144],"purely":[145],"predictive":[146],"approaches":[147],"fragile":[148],"create":[150],"opportunities":[151,165,188],"for":[152,166,193,207],"principled":[153],"identification":[154],"estimation":[156],"from":[158],"inference.":[160],"(2)":[161],"further":[163],"map":[164],"entire":[171],"pipeline,":[174,213],"including":[175],"pretraining,":[176],"alignment,":[177],"routing,":[178],"agentic":[179],"workflows,":[180],"evaluation.":[182,197],"(3)":[183],"discuss":[185],"new":[186],"research":[187],"around":[189],"leveraging":[190],"Overall,":[198],"underutilized":[206],"despite":[214],"fact":[216],"ensure":[221],"reliable":[223],"scientifically":[225],"grounded":[226],"design.":[227]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-06-11T09:08:48.828518","created_date":"2026-05-27T00:00:00"}