{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7162436925","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.24038","title":"Aurora Hunter: A Two-Stage Framework for Probabilistic Visibility Forecasting","display_name":"Aurora Hunter: A Two-Stage Framework for Probabilistic Visibility Forecasting","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-05-21","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7162436925","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.24038"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.24038","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.24038","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.24038","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5113106883","display_name":"Zongyuan Ge","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ge, Zongyuan","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5121583023","display_name":"Chenwaner Zhang","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Zhang, Chenwaner","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5137064584","display_name":"Haoyang Li","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Li, Haoyang","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5137036052","display_name":"Hantai Zhang","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Zhang, Hantai","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5137084192","display_name":"Wenxin Gu","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Zhou, Wei","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5137038993","display_name":"Wei Zhou","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Gu, Wenxin","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5137081354","display_name":"Zhaoming Wang","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Wang, Zhaoming","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10159","display_name":"Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics","score":0.8935999870300293,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3103","display_name":"Astronomy and Astrophysics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/31","display_name":"Physics and Astronomy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10159","display_name":"Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics","score":0.8935999870300293,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3103","display_name":"Astronomy and Astrophysics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/31","display_name":"Physics and Astronomy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11963","display_name":"Impact of Light on Environment and Health","score":0.033399999141693115,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11320","display_name":"Atmospheric Ozone and Climate","score":0.007300000172108412,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/visibility","display_name":"Visibility","score":0.838100016117096},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cascade","display_name":"Cascade","score":0.6553000211715698},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-logic","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","score":0.5242999792098999},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cloud-cover","display_name":"Cloud cover","score":0.48840001225471497},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/stage","display_name":"Stage (stratigraphy)","score":0.4645000100135803},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cloud-computing","display_name":"Cloud computing","score":0.4250999987125397},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/baseline","display_name":"Baseline (sea)","score":0.36500000953674316}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C123403432","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q654068","display_name":"Visibility","level":2,"score":0.838100016117096},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C34146451","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5048094","display_name":"Cascade","level":2,"score":0.6553000211715698},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.5497999787330627},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.5242999792098999},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C206887242","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q830457","display_name":"Cloud cover","level":3,"score":0.48840001225471497},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.4830000102519989},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C146357865","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1123245","display_name":"Stage (stratigraphy)","level":2,"score":0.4645000100135803},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62649853","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q199687","display_name":"Remote sensing","level":1,"score":0.4569000005722046},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C79974875","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q483639","display_name":"Cloud computing","level":2,"score":0.4250999987125397},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.38679999113082886},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.3686000108718872},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C12725497","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q810247","display_name":"Baseline (sea)","level":2,"score":0.36500000953674316},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21001229","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q182868","display_name":"Weather forecasting","level":2,"score":0.3467000126838684},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151956035","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1132755","display_name":"Logistic regression","level":2,"score":0.3264000117778778},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C83546350","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1139051","display_name":"Regression","level":2,"score":0.27810001373291016},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18555067","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8375051","display_name":"Joint (building)","level":2,"score":0.27469998598098755},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C122282355","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7246855","display_name":"Probabilistic forecasting","level":3,"score":0.27219998836517334},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C188198153","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1613840","display_name":"Limiting","level":2,"score":0.2711000144481659},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2987469573","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q182868","display_name":"Weather prediction","level":2,"score":0.26969999074935913},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C114289077","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3284399","display_name":"Statistical model","level":2,"score":0.2648000121116638},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.25600001215934753}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.24038","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.24038","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.24038","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.24038","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/8","score":0.6066299676895142,"display_name":"Decent work and economic growth"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Forecasting":[0],"aurora":[1,10,25],"borealis":[2],"visibility":[3],"matters":[4],"for":[5],"space":[6],"weather":[7],"research":[8],"and":[9,16,34,45,101,118,145],"tourism.":[11],"Visibility":[12],"at":[13],"a":[14,52,124],"site":[15],"night":[17],"depends":[18],"on":[19,70,106],"two":[20],"distinct":[21],"factors:":[22],"(1)":[23],"whether":[24,36],"is":[26],"physically":[27],"occurring,":[28],"driven":[29],"by":[30,127],"solar":[31],"wind-magnetosphere":[32],"coupling,":[33],"(2)":[35],"observing":[37],"conditions":[38],"allow":[39],"naked-eye":[40],"detection,":[41],"mainly":[42],"cloud":[43],"cover":[44],"lunar":[46],"illumination.":[47],"We":[48],"present":[49],"Aurora":[50],"Hunter,":[51],"two-stage":[53],"cascade":[54,110],"that":[55],"decouples":[56],"these":[57],"factors.":[58],"Stage":[59,88],"1":[60],"predicts":[61,90],"P(occurring)":[62],"with":[63,79,95],"XGBoost":[64],"using":[65,98],"51":[66],"physics-driven":[67],"features":[68,103],"trained":[69,104],"joint":[71],"Tromso+Kiruna":[72],"data":[73,131],"(about":[74],"16,600":[75],"hourly":[76],"samples,":[77],"2015-2023)":[78],"labels":[80],"from":[81],"the":[82,138],"Tromso":[83],"AI":[84],"all-sky":[85],"image":[86],"classifier.":[87],"2":[89],"P(clear":[91],"observation":[92],"given":[93],"occurring)":[94],"logistic":[96],"regression":[97],"21":[99],"cloud-cover":[100],"lunar-illumination":[102],"only":[105],"aurora-occurring":[107],"hours.":[108],"The":[109],"P(visible)=P(occurring)*P(clear|occurring)":[111],"reaches":[112],"ROC-AUC":[113],"0.937":[114],"(Tromso":[115],"test,":[116],"2019-2020)":[117],"0.905":[119],"(independent":[120],"Kiruna,":[121],"2024),":[122],"improving":[123],"single-stage":[125],"baseline":[126],"+0.087.":[128],"Held-out":[129],"Skibotn":[130],"(2022-2025)":[132],"confirm":[133],"cross-site":[134],"generalization.":[135],"SHAP":[136],"identifies":[137],"Kp":[139],"x":[140],"nightside":[141],"interaction,":[142],"MLT":[143],"position,":[144],"auroral":[146],"oval":[147],"distance":[148],"as":[149],"dominant":[150],"predictors":[151],"(39%":[152],"combined).":[153],"Prototype:":[154],"https://aurora-hunter.onrender.com.":[155]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-07-01T06:00:48.157686","created_date":"2026-05-27T00:00:00"}
