{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7161065248","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.11645","title":"GeomHerd: A Forward-looking Herding Quantification via Ricci Flow Geometry on Agent Interactive Simulations","display_name":"GeomHerd: A Forward-looking Herding Quantification via Ricci Flow Geometry on Agent Interactive Simulations","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-05-12","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7161065248","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.11645"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.11645","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.11645","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.11645","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5014591803","display_name":"Yang Lake","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Yang, Lake","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5136055909","display_name":"Junwei Su","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Su, Junwei","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5040274803","display_name":"Jingfeng Zeng","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Zeng, Jingfeng","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5125690187","display_name":"Wenhao Lu","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Lu, Wenhao","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5136051503","display_name":"Xingzhi Qian","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Qian, Xingzhi","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5136003510","display_name":"Weitong Zhang","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Zhang, Weitong","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5049283430","display_name":"Chuan Wu","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8784-0808"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Wu, Chuan","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5136024107","display_name":"Dunhong Jin","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jin, Dunhong","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11270","display_name":"Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis","score":0.20229999721050262,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11270","display_name":"Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis","score":0.20229999721050262,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10799","display_name":"Data Visualization and Analytics","score":0.13860000669956207,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1707","display_name":"Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12536","display_name":"Topological and Geometric Data Analysis","score":0.08709999918937683,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1703","display_name":"Computational Theory and Mathematics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/herding","display_name":"Herding","score":0.7709000110626221},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/curvature","display_name":"Curvature","score":0.5472999811172485},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/metric","display_name":"Metric (unit)","score":0.4537999927997589},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/topology","display_name":"Topology (electrical circuits)","score":0.41100001335144043},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/network-topology","display_name":"Network topology","score":0.38100001215934753},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/observability","display_name":"Observability","score":0.37439998984336853},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bounded-function","display_name":"Bounded function","score":0.3433000147342682},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/financial-market","display_name":"Financial market","score":0.3174000084400177}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177605951","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1484503","display_name":"Herding","level":2,"score":0.7709000110626221},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C195065555","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q214881","display_name":"Curvature","level":2,"score":0.5472999811172485},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5087000131607056},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C176217482","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q860554","display_name":"Metric (unit)","level":2,"score":0.4537999927997589},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C184720557","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7825049","display_name":"Topology (electrical circuits)","level":2,"score":0.41100001335144043},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199845137","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q145490","display_name":"Network topology","level":2,"score":0.38100001215934753},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C36299963","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1369844","display_name":"Observability","level":2,"score":0.37439998984336853},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C34388435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2267362","display_name":"Bounded function","level":2,"score":0.3433000147342682},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.3312999904155731},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.3239000141620636},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C19244329","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q208697","display_name":"Financial market","level":2,"score":0.3174000084400177},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C181335050","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q14915018","display_name":"Swarm behaviour","level":2,"score":0.30239999294281006},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C94915269","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1834857","display_name":"Detector","level":2,"score":0.30219998955726624},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C47446073","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5165890","display_name":"Control theory (sociology)","level":3,"score":0.299699991941452},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781220375","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q814208","display_name":"Flocking (texture)","level":2,"score":0.2955000102519989},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780791683","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q846785","display_name":"Action (physics)","level":2,"score":0.2944999933242798},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11413529","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8366","display_name":"Algorithm","level":1,"score":0.2838999927043915},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779843651","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7390335","display_name":"SIGNAL (programming language)","level":2,"score":0.2750000059604645},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C80444323","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2878974","display_name":"Theoretical computer science","level":1,"score":0.27250000834465027},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2775936607","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q466845","display_name":"Tracking (education)","level":2,"score":0.26429998874664307},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C36503486","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11235244","display_name":"Domain (mathematical analysis)","level":2,"score":0.26420000195503235},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C55689738","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q15963867","display_name":"Discrete time and continuous time","level":2,"score":0.25440001487731934},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779696439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7512811","display_name":"Signature (topology)","level":2,"score":0.2513999938964844},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C38349280","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1434290","display_name":"Flow (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.2508000135421753}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.11645","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.11645","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.11645","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.11645","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Herding":[0],"--":[1,10,76,86],"where":[2],"agents":[3],"align":[4],"their":[5],"behaviors":[6],"and":[7,18,91,185,221,232],"act":[8],"collectively":[9],"is":[11],"a":[12,48,71,82,88,128,165,173,199,222],"central":[13],"driver":[14],"of":[15,113,122,167,179,205],"market":[16,155],"fragility":[17],"systemic":[19],"risk.":[20],"Existing":[21],"approaches":[22],"to":[23,135,144,216],"quantify":[24],"herding":[25,140,151],"rely":[26],"on":[27,61,96,157,186],"price-correlation":[28],"statistics,":[29],"which":[30],"inherently":[31],"lag":[32,56],"because":[33],"they":[34],"only":[35],"detect":[36],"coordination":[37,59],"after":[38],"it":[39],"has":[40],"already":[41],"moved":[42],"realised":[43],"returns.":[44],"We":[45],"propose":[46],"GeomHerd,":[47],"forward-looking":[49],"geometric":[50,94,212],"framework":[51],"that":[52],"bypasses":[53],"this":[54],"observability":[55],"by":[57,81,195],"quantifying":[58],"directly":[60],"upstream":[62],"agent-interaction":[63],"graphs.":[64],"To":[65],"generate":[66],"these":[67,114],"graphs,":[68,116],"we":[69,126],"treat":[70],"heterogeneous":[72],"LLM-driven":[73],"multi-agent":[74],"simulator":[75],"each":[77],"financial":[78,105],"trader":[79],"instantiated":[80],"persona-conditioned":[83],"LLM":[84],"call":[85],"as":[87,102],"forecastable":[89],"world,":[90],"evaluate":[92],"the":[93,97,109,119,137,158,189,202,217],"pipeline":[95],"Cividino--Sornette":[98],"continuous-spin":[99,159],"agent-based":[100],"substrate":[101],"our":[103,132,161],"headline":[104],"testbed.":[106],"By":[107],"tracking":[108],"discrete":[110],"Ollivier--Ricci":[111],"curvature":[112],"action":[115],"GeomHerd":[117,143,149],"captures":[118],"structural":[120],"topology":[121],"emerging":[123],"coordination.":[124],"Theoretically,":[125],"establish":[127],"mean-field":[129],"bridge":[130],"mapping":[131],"graph-theoretic":[133],"metric":[134],"CSAD,":[136],"classical":[138],"macroscopic":[139],"statistic,":[141],"linking":[142],"downstream":[145],"price-dispersion":[146],"measurement.":[147],"Empirically,":[148],"anticipates":[150],"long":[152],"before":[153,170],"aggregate":[154],"baselines:":[156],"substrate,":[160],"primary":[162],"detector":[163,175],"fires":[164],"median":[166],"272":[168],"steps":[169,183],"order-parameter":[171],"onset;":[172],"contagion":[174],"($\u03b2_{-}$)":[176],"recalls":[177],"65%":[178],"critical":[180],"trajectories":[181,188],"318":[182],"early;":[184],"co-firing":[187],"agent-graph":[190],"signal":[191],"precedes":[192],"price-correlation-graph":[193],"baselines":[194],"40":[196],"steps.":[197],"As":[198],"complementary":[200],"indicator,":[201],"effective":[203],"vocabulary":[204],"agent":[206],"actions":[207],"contracts":[208],"during":[209],"cascades.":[210],"The":[211],"signature":[213],"transfers":[214],"out-of-domain":[215],"Vicsek":[218],"self-driven-particle":[219],"model,":[220],"curvature-conditioned":[223],"forecasting":[224],"head":[225],"reduces":[226],"cascade-window":[227],"log-return":[228],"MAE":[229],"over":[230],"detector-conditioned":[231],"price-only":[233],"baselines.":[234]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-07-01T06:00:48.157686","created_date":"2026-05-14T00:00:00"}
