{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7160990669","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.10960","title":"Two Hebrew folk meteorological proverbs tested: rainfall on Rosh Chodesh and Shabbat Mevarechim as predictors of monthly precipitation (Israel, 1950-2024)","display_name":"Two Hebrew folk meteorological proverbs tested: rainfall on Rosh Chodesh and Shabbat Mevarechim as predictors of monthly precipitation (Israel, 1950-2024)","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-05-06","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7160990669","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.10960"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.10960","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.10960","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.10960","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5135464640","display_name":"Abraham Itzhak Weinberg","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Weinberg, Abraham Itzhak","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5135464640"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11594","display_name":"Tree-ring climate responses","score":0.642799973487854,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11594","display_name":"Tree-ring climate responses","score":0.642799973487854,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":0.14790000021457672,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11186","display_name":"Hydrology and Drought Analysis","score":0.0203000009059906,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/precipitation","display_name":"Precipitation","score":0.7142000198364258},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/lag","display_name":"Lag","score":0.4916999936103821},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/wet-season","display_name":"Wet season","score":0.4375},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mediterranean-climate","display_name":"Mediterranean climate","score":0.40119999647140503},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/hebrew","display_name":"Hebrew","score":0.3269999921321869}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107054158","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25257","display_name":"Precipitation","level":2,"score":0.7142000198364258},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C75778745","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q342626","display_name":"Lag","level":2,"score":0.4916999936103821},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C52322663","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3117517","display_name":"Wet season","level":2,"score":0.4375},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.4027999937534332},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C4646841","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q13996","display_name":"Mediterranean climate","level":2,"score":0.40119999647140503},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49204034","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52139","display_name":"Climatology","level":1,"score":0.3587999939918518},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.32710000872612},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C91304198","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9288","display_name":"Hebrew","level":2,"score":0.3269999921321869},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132651083","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Climate change","level":2,"score":0.3199000060558319},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.30390000343322754},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C136996986","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q42967","display_name":"Monsoon","level":2,"score":0.2935999929904938},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2986587452","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q938438","display_name":"Statistical analysis","level":2,"score":0.2791000008583069},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C100970517","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52107","display_name":"Physical geography","level":1,"score":0.2766999900341034}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.10960","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.10960","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.10960","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.10960","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Climate action","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","score":0.8314522504806519}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Folk":[0],"meteorological":[1,236],"proverbs":[2,13,231],"encode":[3,232],"centuries":[4],"of":[5,95,127],"empirical":[6],"observation":[7],"by":[8,61,167],"agricultural":[9],"communities.":[10],"Two":[11],"Hebrew":[12,56],"link":[14],"lunar":[15],"calendar":[16],"anchor":[17],"days":[18],"to":[19,63,133,169],"monthly":[20],"winter":[21,116],"rainfall:":[22],"(i)":[23],"\"If":[24,36],"Rosh":[25,59,122,165],"Chodesh":[26,60,123,166],"is":[27,32,45,49,69,240],"rainy,":[28],"the":[29,42,50,72,115,125],"whole":[30,43],"month":[31,44,130],"rainy\"":[33],"and":[34,110,177,204],"(ii)":[35],"it":[37],"rains":[38],"on":[39],"Shabbat":[40,47,150],"Mevarechim,":[41],"rainy.\"":[46],"Mevarechim":[48,151],"last":[51],"Saturday":[52],"before":[53],"each":[54],"new":[55],"month,":[57],"preceding":[58,164],"one":[62],"seven":[64,100,170],"days.":[65,171],"The":[66,172],"first":[67],"proverb":[68],"widely":[70],"known;":[71],"second":[73],"circulates":[74],"in":[75],"Hasidic":[76],"oral":[77],"tradition":[78],"with":[79,175,193,222],"no":[80],"identified":[81],"written":[82],"source.":[83],"Both":[84,230],"have":[85],"never":[86],"been":[87],"formally":[88],"tested.":[89],"We":[90],"analyse":[91],"75":[92],"years":[93],"(1950-2024)":[94],"daily":[96,179],"precipitation":[97,224],"data":[98],"from":[99,131],"Israeli":[101],"cities":[102],"across":[103],"three":[104],"climatic":[105],"regions,":[106],"comprising":[107],"191,758":[108],"station-days":[109],"2,422":[111],"Hebrew-month":[112],"observations":[113],"during":[114],"rainy":[117,121,129,149],"season":[118],"(Marcheshvan-Adar).":[119],"A":[120,148,197],"increases":[124],"probability":[126],"a":[128,153,205],"22.2%":[132],"38.6%":[134],"(lift":[135,156],"+16.4":[136],"percentage":[137,158,214],"points;":[138],"chi-square":[139],"=":[140,143,161,183],"57.8,":[141],"p":[142,160,218],"2.9e-14;":[144],"Bayes":[145],"factor":[146],"1.81).":[147],"produces":[152],"similar":[154],"effect":[155,173],"+16.5":[157],"points,":[159],"8.0e-13),":[162],"despite":[163],"up":[168],"decays":[174],"lag":[176,186,190],"mirrors":[178],"rainfall":[180],"autocorrelation":[181],"(r":[182],"0.35-0.44":[184],"at":[185,189],"1;":[187],"~0":[188],"7),":[191],"consistent":[192,221],"Mediterranean":[194],"cyclone":[195],"persistence.":[196],"bootstrap":[198],"permutation":[199],"test":[200],"(p":[201],"&lt;":[202,219],"1e-4)":[203],"15-year":[206],"rolling":[207],"analysis":[208],"show":[209],"declining":[210],"predictive":[211],"power":[212],"(-0.20":[213],"points":[215],"per":[216],"year,":[217],"0.001),":[220],"shortening":[223],"events":[225],"under":[226],"warming":[227],"climate":[228],"conditions.":[229],"real":[233],"but":[234],"probabilistic":[235],"signals":[237],"whose":[238],"reliability":[239],"decreasing":[241],"over":[242],"time.":[243]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-07-01T06:00:48.157686","created_date":"2026-05-14T00:00:00"}
