{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7160895443","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.10298","title":"Set Prediction for Next-Day Active Fire Forecasting","display_name":"Set Prediction for Next-Day Active Fire Forecasting","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-05-11","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7160895443","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.10298"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.10298","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.10298","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.10298","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5125644354","display_name":"Yuchen Bai","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Bai, Yuchen","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5129277152","display_name":"Georgios Athanasiou","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Athanasiou, Georgios","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5135921632","display_name":"Xin Yu","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7431-7383"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Yu, Xin","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5129202972","display_name":"Diogenis Antonopoulos","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Antonopoulos, Diogenis","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5102851038","display_name":"Ioannis Papoutsis","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2845-9791"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Papoutsis, Ioannis","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5135982317","display_name":"Stijn Hantson","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Hantson, Stijn","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5135923177","display_name":"Nuno Carvalhais","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Carvalhais, Nuno","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10555","display_name":"Fire effects on ecosystems","score":0.9610000252723694,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10555","display_name":"Fire effects on ecosystems","score":0.9610000252723694,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12597","display_name":"Fire Detection and Safety Systems","score":0.019600000232458115,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2213","display_name":"Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10535","display_name":"Landslides and related hazards","score":0.0019000000320374966,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2308","display_name":"Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/benchmark","display_name":"Benchmark (surveying)","score":0.64410001039505},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/weighting","display_name":"Weighting","score":0.5881999731063843},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/set","display_name":"Set (abstract data type)","score":0.522599995136261},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/matching","display_name":"Matching (statistics)","score":0.46209999918937683},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/random-forest","display_name":"Random forest","score":0.42989999055862427},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/warning-system","display_name":"Warning system","score":0.420199990272522},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/fire-detection","display_name":"Fire detection","score":0.36500000953674316},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/data-set","display_name":"Data set","score":0.3644999861717224}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185798385","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1161707","display_name":"Benchmark (surveying)","level":2,"score":0.64410001039505},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C183115368","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q856577","display_name":"Weighting","level":2,"score":0.5881999731063843},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5404000282287598},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177264268","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1514741","display_name":"Set (abstract data type)","level":2,"score":0.522599995136261},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165064840","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1321061","display_name":"Matching (statistics)","level":2,"score":0.46209999918937683},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C169258074","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q245748","display_name":"Random forest","level":2,"score":0.42989999055862427},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C29825287","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1427940","display_name":"Warning system","level":2,"score":0.420199990272522},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780836893","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q19922674","display_name":"Fire detection","level":2,"score":0.36500000953674316},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C58489278","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1172284","display_name":"Data set","level":2,"score":0.3644999861717224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C19269812","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q26540","display_name":"Satellite","level":2,"score":0.36149999499320984},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C73555534","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q622825","display_name":"Cluster analysis","level":2,"score":0.32519999146461487},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776133958","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7918366","display_name":"Vegetation (pathology)","level":2,"score":0.32510000467300415},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C557531904","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q897825","display_name":"Firefighting","level":2,"score":0.3246999979019165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.3172000050544739},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77967617","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4677561","display_name":"Active learning (machine learning)","level":2,"score":0.31279999017715454},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C169903167","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3985153","display_name":"Test set","level":2,"score":0.3100999891757965},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.3034999966621399},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.2913999855518341},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C164866538","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q367351","display_name":"Cluster (spacecraft)","level":2,"score":0.28940001130104065},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.28349998593330383},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C147947694","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q837552","display_name":"Numerical weather prediction","level":2,"score":0.2809000015258789},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C187691185","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2020720","display_name":"Grid","level":2,"score":0.2797999978065491},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18762648","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q42213","display_name":"Work (physics)","level":2,"score":0.2759999930858612},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C68387754","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7271585","display_name":"Schedule","level":2,"score":0.26109999418258667},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C108010975","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q500094","display_name":"Pruning","level":2,"score":0.2578999996185303}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.10298","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.10298","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.10298","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.10298","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","score":0.8113144636154175,"display_name":"Climate action"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Accurate":[0],"next-day":[1,65],"active":[2,66,95],"fire":[3,33,51,67,85,96,158,177,182],"forecasts":[4],"can":[5],"support":[6],"early":[7],"warning,":[8],"disaster":[9],"response,":[10],"forest":[11],"risk":[12],"assessment,":[13],"and":[14,84,128,138,186,209],"downstream":[15],"estimation":[16],"of":[17,75,93,121,176,189],"fire-related":[18],"carbon":[19],"emissions.":[20],"Existing":[21],"machine":[22],"learning":[23],"approaches":[24],"to":[25,116],"wildfire":[26,30,207],"forecasting":[27,68,208],"typically":[28],"predict":[29],"danger":[31],"or":[32],"probability":[34],"on":[35,99],"kilometre-scale":[36],"daily":[37],"grids,":[38],"which":[39],"is":[40,110],"useful":[41],"for":[42,149,170,205,213],"regional":[43],"warning":[44],"but":[45],"does":[46],"not":[47],"directly":[48],"represent":[49],"localized":[50],"events.":[52],"We":[53,140],"propose":[54],"Wildfire":[55],"Ignition":[56],"Set":[57],"Predictor":[58],"(WISP),":[59],"a":[60,89,100,143,153,202,211],"query-based":[61],"model":[62,109],"that":[63],"reformulates":[64],"as":[69,201],"point-set":[70],"prediction.":[71],"From":[72],"48":[73],"hours":[74],"covariates":[76],"including":[77],"meteorology,":[78],"satellite":[79],"vegetation":[80],"products,":[81],"static":[82],"land,":[83],"history,":[86],"WISP":[87,163],"predicts":[88],"fixed-size":[90],"ranked":[91,171],"set":[92,156,199],"future":[94,214],"cluster":[97,178],"centres":[98],"375":[101],"m":[102],"grid":[103],"across":[104],"globally":[105,144],"distributed":[106],"regions.":[107],"The":[108],"trained":[111],"end-to-end":[112],"with":[113],"Hungarian":[114],"matching;":[115],"address":[117],"the":[118,122,161],"conflicting":[119],"roles":[120],"classification":[123],"score":[124],"in":[125,136,216],"assignment,":[126],"ranking,":[127],"query":[129],"activation,":[130],"we":[131],"use":[132],"asymmetric":[133],"classification-localization":[134],"weighting":[135],"matching":[137],"loss.":[139],"further":[141],"construct":[142],"distributed,":[145],"hourly,":[146],"multi-source":[147],"benchmark":[148,212],"this":[150,217],"task.":[151],"On":[152],"held-out":[154],"test":[155],"spanning":[157],"regions":[159],"worldwide,":[160],"best":[162],"variant":[164],"achieves":[165],"38.2%":[166],"average":[167],"precision":[168],"(AP)":[169],"fire-centre":[172],"detections,":[173],"covers":[174],"53.4%":[175],"mass":[179],"weighted":[180],"by":[181],"radiative":[183],"power":[184],"(FRP),":[185],"localizes":[187],"54.1%":[188],"observed":[190],"clusters":[191],"within":[192],"5":[193],"km.":[194],"These":[195],"results":[196],"establish":[197],"sparse":[198],"prediction":[200],"viable":[203],"formulation":[204],"high-resolution":[206],"provide":[210],"work":[215],"regime.":[218]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-07-01T06:00:48.157686","created_date":"2026-05-13T00:00:00"}