{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7160869423","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.07671","title":"The Endogeneity of Miscalibration: Impossibility and Escape in Scored Reporting","display_name":"The Endogeneity of Miscalibration: Impossibility and Escape in Scored Reporting","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-05-08","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7160869423","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.07671"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.07671","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.07671","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.07671","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5135828819","display_name":"Lauri Lov\u00e9n","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Lov\u00e9n, Lauri","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5054443906","display_name":"Sasu Tarkoma","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4220-3650"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Tarkoma, Sasu","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11182","display_name":"Auction Theory and Applications","score":0.7786999940872192,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11182","display_name":"Auction Theory and Applications","score":0.7786999940872192,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11031","display_name":"Game Theory and Applications","score":0.061900001019239426,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10991","display_name":"Game Theory and Voting Systems","score":0.03869999945163727,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/impossibility","display_name":"Impossibility","score":0.7511000037193298},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/endogeneity","display_name":"Endogeneity","score":0.5115000009536743},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/scoring-rule","display_name":"Scoring rule","score":0.4799000024795532},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/principal","display_name":"Principal (computer security)","score":0.46239998936653137},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/equivalence","display_name":"Equivalence (formal languages)","score":0.44929999113082886},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/logical-equivalence","display_name":"Logical equivalence","score":0.4415000081062317},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/welfare","display_name":"Welfare","score":0.41029998660087585},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/constructive","display_name":"Constructive","score":0.39730000495910645}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776261394","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q315562","display_name":"Impossibility","level":2,"score":0.7511000037193298},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C610760","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1340706","display_name":"Endogeneity","level":2,"score":0.5115000009536743},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C63002673","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2260590","display_name":"Scoring rule","level":2,"score":0.4799000024795532},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144237770","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q747534","display_name":"Mathematical economics","level":1,"score":0.47029998898506165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144559511","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2986279","display_name":"Principal (computer security)","level":2,"score":0.46239998936653137},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780069185","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7977945","display_name":"Equivalence (formal languages)","level":2,"score":0.44929999113082886},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C70846408","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q220433","display_name":"Logical equivalence","level":3,"score":0.4415000081062317},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.42239999771118164},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C100243477","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12002092","display_name":"Welfare","level":2,"score":0.41029998660087585},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.39800000190734863},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778701210","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q28130034","display_name":"Constructive","level":3,"score":0.39730000495910645},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C184898388","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1435712","display_name":"Pairwise comparison","level":2,"score":0.349700003862381},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C181622380","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q26911","display_name":"Profit (economics)","level":2,"score":0.3409000039100647},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C145097563","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1148747","display_name":"Payment","level":2,"score":0.33390000462532043},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781466463","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q621695","display_name":"Blame","level":2,"score":0.3296000063419342},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C14036430","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3736076","display_name":"Function (biology)","level":2,"score":0.32409998774528503},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153083717","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6535263","display_name":"Leverage (statistics)","level":2,"score":0.3059999942779541},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C108650721","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1783253","display_name":"Counterfactual thinking","level":2,"score":0.302700012922287},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C34388435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2267362","display_name":"Bounded function","level":2,"score":0.30169999599456787},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127705205","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5748245","display_name":"Heuristics","level":2,"score":0.2840999960899353},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C92757383","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q382497","display_name":"Affine transformation","level":2,"score":0.2815999984741211},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.28139999508857727},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C142696051","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q33481","display_name":"Arrow's impossibility theorem","level":3,"score":0.2721000015735626},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.263700008392334},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C35405484","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4967066","display_name":"Brier score","level":2,"score":0.2531999945640564}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.07671","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.07671","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.07671","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.07671","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Eliciting":[0],"truthful":[1,82,221],"reports":[2,222],"from":[3,31,223],"autonomous":[4,40],"agents":[5],"is":[6,61,91,169,180,214],"a":[7,14,21,35,70,112,120,140,158,224],"core":[8],"problem":[9],"in":[10,50],"scalable":[11],"AI":[12,195,212],"oversight:":[13],"principal":[15,94],"scores":[16],"the":[17,27,32,64,86,97,134,145,149,153,193,230],"agent's":[18,135],"report":[19,33],"using":[20],"strictly":[22,107,129],"proper":[23,108,130],"scoring":[24,109,131],"rule,":[25,132],"but":[26],"agent":[28,196],"also":[29],"benefits":[30],"through":[34],"non-accuracy":[36],"channel":[37],"(approval":[38],"for":[39,105,127,186,211],"action,":[41],"allocation":[42],"share,":[43],"downstream":[44],"control).":[45],"The":[46,93,209],"same":[47],"structure":[48],"appears":[49],"classical":[51],"mechanism-design":[52,207],"settings":[53],"such":[54],"as":[55],"marketplace":[56,203],"operation.":[57],"Our":[58],"main":[59],"result":[60],"an":[62],"endogeneity:":[63],"principal's":[65],"optimal":[66],"oversight":[67,179,197,218],"necessarily":[68],"uses":[69],"non-affine":[71,79],"approval":[72,80,122],"function":[73],"to":[74,171],"screen":[75],"types,":[76],"yet":[77],"any":[78],"makes":[81],"reporting":[83],"suboptimal":[84],"under":[85,176],"combined":[87],"objective":[88],"whenever":[89],"deviation":[90],"undetectable.":[92],"cannot":[95,219],"avoid":[96],"perturbation":[98,114],"that":[99],"undermines":[100],"calibration.":[101],"This":[102],"impossibility":[103],"holds":[104],"all":[106],"rules,":[110],"with":[111],"closed-form":[113],"formula.":[115],"A":[116],"constructive":[117],"escape":[118],"exists:":[119],"step-function":[121],"threshold":[123,142],"achieves":[124],"first-best":[125],"screening":[126],"every":[128,187],"because":[133],"binary":[136],"inflate-or-not":[137],"choice":[138],"creates":[139],"type-space":[141],"regardless":[143],"of":[144],"generator's":[146],"curvature.":[147],"Under":[148],"Brier":[150,172],"score":[151],"specifically,":[152],"type-independent":[154],"inflation":[155],"cost":[156],"yields":[157],"welfare":[159,174],"equivalence":[160,168],"between":[161],"second-best":[162],"and":[163,202],"first-best;":[164],"we":[165],"prove":[166],"this":[167],"unique":[170],"(the":[173,198],"gap":[175],"smooth":[177,216],"$C^1$":[178],"bounded":[181],"below":[182],"by":[183],"$\u03a9(\\text{Var}(1/G'')":[184],"(\u03b3/\u03b2)^2)$":[185],"non-Brier":[188],"rule).":[189],"Two":[190],"instances":[191],"develop":[192],"framework:":[194],"lead":[199],"motivating":[200],"setting)":[201],"operation":[204],"(a":[205],"parallel":[206],"domain).":[208],"message":[210],"alignment":[213],"direct:":[215],"scoring-based":[217],"elicit":[220],"strategic":[225],"agent;":[226],"sharp":[227],"thresholds":[228],"are":[229],"calibration-preserving":[231],"design.":[232]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-07-01T06:00:48.157686","created_date":"2026-05-12T00:00:00"}
