{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7160830141","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.07208","title":"FAME: Forecasting Academic Impact via Continuous-Time Manifold Evolution","display_name":"FAME: Forecasting Academic Impact via Continuous-Time Manifold Evolution","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-05-08","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7160830141","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.07208"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.07208","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.07208","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.07208","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5135829129","display_name":"Jianrong Ding","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ding, Jianrong","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5135905799","display_name":"Jianyuan Zhong","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Zhong, Jianyuan","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5135861891","display_name":"Zhengyan Shi","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Shi, Zhengyan","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5135854862","display_name":"Qiang Xu","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Xu, Qiang","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13910","display_name":"Computational and Text Analysis Methods","score":0.25690001249313354,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3300","display_name":"General Social Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13910","display_name":"Computational and Text Analysis Methods","score":0.25690001249313354,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3300","display_name":"General Social Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10028","display_name":"Topic Modeling","score":0.09529999643564224,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10102","display_name":"scientometrics and bibliometrics research","score":0.09269999712705612,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1804","display_name":"Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/proxy","display_name":"Proxy (statistics)","score":0.5892000198364258},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/leaps","display_name":"LEAPS","score":0.5131000280380249},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/brainstorming","display_name":"Brainstorming","score":0.4309999942779541},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/benchmark","display_name":"Benchmark (surveying)","score":0.3978999853134155},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/verifiable-secret-sharing","display_name":"Verifiable secret sharing","score":0.373199999332428},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/momentum","display_name":"Momentum (technical analysis)","score":0.36550000309944153}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780148112","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1432581","display_name":"Proxy (statistics)","level":2,"score":0.5892000198364258},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5218999981880188},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.5205000042915344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777705401","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6457570","display_name":"LEAPS","level":2,"score":0.5131000280380249},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.48820000886917114},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C150672426","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q191183","display_name":"Brainstorming","level":2,"score":0.4309999942779541},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2522767166","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2374463","display_name":"Data science","level":1,"score":0.42739999294281006},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185798385","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1161707","display_name":"Benchmark (surveying)","level":2,"score":0.3978999853134155},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C85847156","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q59015987","display_name":"Verifiable secret sharing","level":3,"score":0.373199999332428},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C60718061","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1414747","display_name":"Momentum (technical analysis)","level":2,"score":0.36550000309944153},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42475967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194292","display_name":"Operations research","level":1,"score":0.34360000491142273},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C78780964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7233193","display_name":"Position paper","level":2,"score":0.3319999873638153},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C198082294","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3399648","display_name":"Position (finance)","level":2,"score":0.30959999561309814},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.30809998512268066},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778571376","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1355821","display_name":"Frontier","level":2,"score":0.2971000075340271},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C539667460","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2414942","display_name":"Management science","level":1,"score":0.26170000433921814},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153083717","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6535263","display_name":"Leverage (statistics)","level":2,"score":0.25920000672340393},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780586970","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1357284","display_name":"Popularity","level":2,"score":0.25870001316070557},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C120524526","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1709148","display_name":"Reboot","level":2,"score":0.25029999017715454}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.07208","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.07208","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.07208","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.07208","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.5520612001419067,"display_name":"Quality Education","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/4"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Large":[0],"Language":[1],"Models":[2],"(LLMs)":[3],"are":[4],"increasingly":[5],"used":[6],"to":[7,31,61],"brainstorm":[8],"and":[9,116,148,184],"evaluate":[10],"research":[11],"ideas,":[12],"yet":[13],"assessing":[14],"such":[15],"judgments":[16],"is":[17,74],"fundamentally":[18],"difficult":[19],"because":[20],"the":[21,39,98,129],"true":[22],"impact":[23,40,157,176],"of":[24,42,101,132],"a":[25,46,51,93,108,117,179,188],"new":[26],"idea":[27],"may":[28],"take":[29],"years":[30],"emerge.":[32],"We":[33],"address":[34,80],"this":[35,81],"challenge":[36],"by":[37,113],"using":[38],"forecasting":[41,53,170,177],"human-authored":[43],"manuscripts":[44,127],"as":[45,178,187],"verifiable":[47],"proxy":[48,182],"task.":[49],"In":[50],"prospective":[52,155],"study,":[54],"we":[55,83],"find":[56],"that":[57,70,124,145],"frontier":[58],"LLMs":[59,166],"fail":[60],"reliably":[62],"distinguish":[63],"high-impact":[64],"papers":[65,106,139],"from":[66],"ordinary":[67],"publications,":[68],"suggesting":[69],"static":[71],"text-based":[72],"judging":[73],"insufficient":[75],"for":[76,96,192],"scientific":[77,102,194],"evaluation.":[78,195],"To":[79],"limitation,":[82],"propose":[84],"$\\textbf{FAME}$":[85],"($\\underline{\\text{F}}$orecasting":[86],"$\\underline{\\text{A}}$cademic":[87],"Impact":[88],"via":[89],"Continuous-Time":[90],"$\\underline{\\text{M}}$anifold":[91],"$\\underline{\\text{E}}$volution),":[92],"spatiotemporal":[94],"framework":[95],"modeling":[97],"dynamic":[99,109,162],"trajectories":[100],"topics.":[103],"FAME":[104,146,186],"projects":[105],"into":[107,165],"latent":[110],"space":[111],"informed":[112],"textual":[114],"features":[115],"verified":[118],"knowledge-flow":[119],"graph,":[120],"learning":[121],"geometric":[122,163],"constraints":[123],"align":[125],"impactful":[126],"with":[128],"forward":[130],"momentum":[131],"their":[133,169],"fields.":[134],"Experiments":[135],"on":[136],"3,200":[137],"arXiv":[138],"across":[140],"three":[141],"fast-evolving":[142],"subfields":[143],"show":[144],"consistently":[147],"substantially":[149],"outperforms":[150],"state-of-the-art":[151],"LLM":[152],"evaluators":[153],"in":[154],"multidimensional":[156],"forecasting.":[158],"Furthermore,":[159],"integrating":[160],"FAME's":[161],"signals":[164],"significantly":[167],"improves":[168],"performance.":[171],"These":[172],"results":[173],"support":[174],"manuscript":[175],"useful,":[180],"measurable":[181],"benchmark":[183],"position":[185],"strong,":[189],"trajectory-aware":[190],"foundation":[191],"automated":[193]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-06-11T09:08:48.828518","created_date":"2026-05-12T00:00:00"}
