{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7160158787","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.00466","title":"PAMod: Modeling Cyclical Shifts via Phase-Amplitude Modulation for Non-stationary Time Series Forecasting","display_name":"PAMod: Modeling Cyclical Shifts via Phase-Amplitude Modulation for Non-stationary Time Series Forecasting","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-05-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7160158787","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.00466"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.00466","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.00466","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.00466","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5040821130","display_name":"Yingbo Zhou","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6034-9667"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Zhou, Yingbo","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5135188561","display_name":"Yutong Ye","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ye, Yutong","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5135154411","display_name":"Shuhao Li","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Li, Shuhao","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5112698575","display_name":"Rui Qian","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0009-2324-0887"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Qian, Rui","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5135215007","display_name":"Qiang Huang","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Huang, Qiang","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5135154844","display_name":"Lemao Liu","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Liu, Lemao","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5135109894","display_name":"Li Sun","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Sun, Li","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5135109800","display_name":"Dejing Dou","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Dou, Dejing","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12205","display_name":"Time Series Analysis and Forecasting","score":0.6992999911308289,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1711","display_name":"Signal Processing"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12205","display_name":"Time Series Analysis and Forecasting","score":0.6992999911308289,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1711","display_name":"Signal Processing"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11344","display_name":"Traffic Prediction and Management Techniques","score":0.06289999932050705,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2215","display_name":"Building and Construction"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.05609999969601631,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/normalization","display_name":"Normalization (sociology)","score":0.635699987411499},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/modulation","display_name":"Modulation (music)","score":0.6327999830245972},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/series","display_name":"Series (stratigraphy)","score":0.5957000255584717},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/variance","display_name":"Variance (accounting)","score":0.5889000296592712},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/representation","display_name":"Representation (politics)","score":0.5016999840736389},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/time-series","display_name":"Time series","score":0.4596000015735626},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/distribution","display_name":"Distribution (mathematics)","score":0.445499986410141},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/feature","display_name":"Feature (linguistics)","score":0.3573000133037567}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C136886441","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q926129","display_name":"Normalization (sociology)","level":2,"score":0.635699987411499},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C123079801","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q750240","display_name":"Modulation (music)","level":2,"score":0.6327999830245972},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C143724316","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q312468","display_name":"Series (stratigraphy)","level":2,"score":0.5957000255584717},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C196083921","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7915758","display_name":"Variance (accounting)","level":2,"score":0.5889000296592712},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5277000069618225},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776359362","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2145286","display_name":"Representation (politics)","level":3,"score":0.5016999840736389},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.4596000015735626},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C110121322","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q865811","display_name":"Distribution (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.445499986410141},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11413529","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8366","display_name":"Algorithm","level":1,"score":0.37529999017715454},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.36579999327659607},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776401178","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12050496","display_name":"Feature (linguistics)","level":2,"score":0.3573000133037567},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C180205008","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q159190","display_name":"Amplitude","level":2,"score":0.3513000011444092},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C96834759","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q750463","display_name":"Phase modulation","level":3,"score":0.3379000127315521},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C96146094","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q609057","display_name":"Unification","level":2,"score":0.33570000529289246},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151342819","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q62542","display_name":"Phase space","level":2,"score":0.323199987411499},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121864883","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q677916","display_name":"Statistical physics","level":1,"score":0.3149000108242035},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11930861","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q181417","display_name":"Frequency modulation","level":3,"score":0.31439998745918274},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C201905106","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q183755","display_name":"Amplitude modulation","level":4,"score":0.27959999442100525},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778572836","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q380933","display_name":"Space (punctuation)","level":2,"score":0.27649998664855957},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44280652","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q104837","display_name":"Phase (matter)","level":2,"score":0.26460000872612},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C47446073","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5165890","display_name":"Control theory (sociology)","level":3,"score":0.26350000500679016},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.2558000087738037},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112633086","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q381287","display_name":"White noise","level":2,"score":0.2556999921798706}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.00466","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.00466","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.00466","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.00466","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Real-world":[0],"time":[1],"series":[2],"forecasting":[3,166],"faces":[4],"the":[5,37,89],"fundamental":[6],"challenge":[7],"of":[8,131],"non-stationary":[9],"statistical":[10],"properties,":[11],"including":[12],"shifts":[13,55,84],"in":[14,50,88,118],"mean":[15,103],"and":[16,31,42,66,134],"variance":[17,110],"over":[18],"time.":[19],"While":[20],"reversible":[21],"instance":[22],"normalization":[23],"(RevIN)":[24],"has":[25],"shown":[26],"promise":[27],"by":[28],"stationarizing":[29],"inputs":[30],"denormalizing":[32],"outputs,":[33],"it":[34],"relies":[35],"on":[36,139],"strong":[38],"assumption":[39],"that":[40,49,59,80,116,144],"historical":[41],"future":[43],"distributions":[44],"remain":[45],"identical.":[46],"We":[47],"observe":[48],"many":[51],"practical":[52],"applications,":[53],"distribution":[54,83,132],"follow":[56],"cyclical":[57,82],"patterns":[58],"correlate":[60],"with":[61,149,168],"periodic":[62,95],"positions":[63],"(e.g.,":[64],"seasonal":[65],"holiday":[67],"volatility).":[68],"To":[69],"this":[70],"end,":[71],"we":[72,113],"propose":[73],"PAMod,":[74],"a":[75,158],"lightweight":[76],"yet":[77],"powerful":[78],"framework":[79],"models":[81],"via":[85],"Phase-Amplitude":[86],"Modulation":[87],"normalized":[90,119],"feature":[91],"space.":[92],"PAMod":[93,145],"learns":[94],"embeddings":[96],"to":[97,109,123],"modulate":[98],"representations:":[99],"phase":[100],"modulation":[101,107,155],"captures":[102],"shifts,":[104],"while":[105],"amplitude":[106],"adapts":[108],"changes.":[111],"Crucially,":[112],"prove":[114],"mathematically":[115],"modulating":[117],"space":[120],"is":[121],"equivalent":[122],"applying":[124],"dynamic":[125],"denormalization,":[126],"offering":[127],"an":[128],"elegant":[129],"unification":[130],"adaptation":[133],"representation":[135],"learning.":[136],"Extensive":[137],"experiments":[138],"twelve":[140],"real-world":[141],"benchmarks":[142],"demonstrate":[143],"achieves":[146],"state-of-the-art":[147],"performance":[148],"fewer":[150],"computational":[151],"resources.":[152],"Furthermore,":[153],"our":[154],"mechanism,":[156],"as":[157],"novel":[159],"plug-and-play":[160],"technique,":[161],"can":[162],"improve":[163],"existing":[164],"time-series":[165],"methods":[167],"simple":[169],"integration.":[170]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-07-01T06:00:48.157686","created_date":"2026-05-05T00:00:00"}