{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7160043529","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.00226","title":"Why Do LLMs Struggle in Strategic Play? Broken Links Between Observations, Beliefs, and Actions","display_name":"Why Do LLMs Struggle in Strategic Play? Broken Links Between Observations, Beliefs, and Actions","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-04-30","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7160043529","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.00226"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.00226","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.00226","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.00226","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5135130690","display_name":"Jan Sobotka","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Sobotka, Jan","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5135112481","display_name":"Mustafa O. Karabag","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Karabag, Mustafa O.","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5135211644","display_name":"Ufuk Topcu","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Topcu, Ufuk","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12026","display_name":"Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)","score":0.12150000035762787,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12026","display_name":"Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)","score":0.12150000035762787,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10456","display_name":"Multi-Agent Systems and Negotiation","score":0.07079999893903732,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12031","display_name":"Speech and dialogue systems","score":0.06040000170469284,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/negotiation","display_name":"Negotiation","score":0.5508999824523926},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/warrant","display_name":"Warrant","score":0.49480000138282776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/coherence","display_name":"Coherence (philosophical gambling strategy)","score":0.4887000024318695},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/game-theory","display_name":"Game theory","score":0.3723999857902527},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-inference","display_name":"Bayesian inference","score":0.30889999866485596},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/vulnerability","display_name":"Vulnerability (computing)","score":0.305400013923645}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199776023","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q202875","display_name":"Negotiation","level":2,"score":0.5508999824523926},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776916960","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q637156","display_name":"Warrant","level":2,"score":0.49480000138282776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781181686","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4226068","display_name":"Coherence (philosophical gambling strategy)","level":2,"score":0.4887000024318695},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77805123","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q161272","display_name":"Social psychology","level":1,"score":0.453000009059906},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C118084267","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q26110","display_name":"Positive economics","level":1,"score":0.3824000060558319},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.37709999084472656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177142836","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q44455","display_name":"Game theory","level":2,"score":0.3723999857902527},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138921699","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q47555","display_name":"Political economy","level":1,"score":0.3528999984264374},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C180747234","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23373","display_name":"Cognitive psychology","level":1,"score":0.3458000123500824},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.3240000009536743},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.32350000739097595},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C160234255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812535","display_name":"Bayesian inference","level":3,"score":0.30889999866485596},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C95713431","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q631425","display_name":"Vulnerability (computing)","level":2,"score":0.305400013923645},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C113336015","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q574010","display_name":"Complete information","level":2,"score":0.2777999937534332},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39549134","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q133080","display_name":"Public relations","level":1,"score":0.27570000290870667},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776325391","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6917865","display_name":"Motivated reasoning","level":3,"score":0.2743000090122223},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C26760741","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160402","display_name":"Perception","level":2,"score":0.2736000120639801},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C48243021","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q932522","display_name":"Strategic planning","level":2,"score":0.2529999911785126}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.00226","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.00226","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.00226","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.00226","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Peace, Justice and strong institutions","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16","score":0.8165778517723083}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Large":[0],"language":[1],"models":[2,64],"(LLMs)":[3],"are":[4,33,83,95],"increasingly":[5],"tasked":[6],"with":[7,62,103],"strategic":[8,170],"decision-making":[9,53],"under":[10],"incomplete":[11],"information,":[12],"such":[13,25],"as":[14],"in":[15,30,47,56,140,169],"negotiation":[16],"and":[17,68,108,111],"policymaking.":[18],"While":[19],"LLMs":[20,55,74,168],"can":[21,159],"excel":[22],"at":[23],"many":[24],"tasks,":[26],"they":[27],"also":[28],"fail":[29],"ways":[31],"that":[32,82,135,163],"poorly":[34],"understood.":[35],"We":[36],"shed":[37],"light":[38],"on":[39],"these":[40,93],"failures":[41],"by":[42,60],"uncovering":[43],"two":[44],"fundamental":[45],"gaps":[46],"the":[48,52,99,137,141],"internal":[49,76,128,157],"mechanisms":[50],"underlying":[51],"of":[54,127,136],"incomplete-information":[57],"games,":[58],"supported":[59],"experiments":[61],"open-weight":[63],"Llama":[65],"3.1,":[66],"Qwen3,":[67],"gpt-oss.":[69],"First,":[70],"an":[71],"observation-belief":[72],"gap:":[73,123],"encode":[75],"beliefs":[77,94,129,138],"about":[78],"latent":[79],"game":[80,149],"states":[81],"substantially":[84],"more":[85],"accurate":[86],"than":[87,134],"their":[88],"own":[89],"verbal":[90],"reports,":[91],"yet":[92,143],"brittle.":[96],"In":[97],"particular,":[98],"belief":[100],"accuracy":[101],"degrades":[102],"multi-hop":[104],"reasoning,":[105],"exhibits":[106],"primacy":[107],"recency":[109],"biases,":[110],"drifts":[112],"away":[113],"from":[114],"Bayesian":[115],"coherence":[116],"over":[117],"extended":[118],"interactions.":[119],"Second,":[120],"a":[121],"belief-action":[122],"The":[124],"implicit":[125],"conversion":[126],"into":[130],"actions":[131],"is":[132],"weaker":[133],"externalized":[139],"prompt,":[142],"neither":[144],"belief-conditioning":[145],"consistently":[146],"achieves":[147],"higher":[148],"payoffs.":[150],"These":[151],"results":[152],"show":[153],"how":[154],"analyzing":[155],"LLMs'":[156],"processes":[158],"expose":[160],"systematic":[161],"vulnerabilities":[162],"warrant":[164],"caution":[165],"before":[166],"deploying":[167],"domains":[171],"without":[172],"robust":[173],"guardrails.":[174]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-06-11T09:08:48.828518","created_date":"2026-05-05T00:00:00"}
