{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7159623511","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2604.27694","title":"The Satoshi Overhang: Why the Bear Case is Bounded","display_name":"The Satoshi Overhang: Why the Bear Case is Bounded","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-04-30","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7159623511","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2604.27694"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2604.27694","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2604.27694","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2604.27694","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5040079549","display_name":"Karl T. Ulrich","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0000-4781-9230"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Ulrich, Karl T.","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5040079549"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10270","display_name":"Blockchain Technology Applications and Security","score":0.8565999865531921,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1710","display_name":"Information Systems"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10270","display_name":"Blockchain Technology Applications and Security","score":0.8565999865531921,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1710","display_name":"Information Systems"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11437","display_name":"Digital Platforms and Economics","score":0.025299999862909317,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1408","display_name":"Strategy and Management"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11496","display_name":"Credit Risk and Financial Regulations","score":0.005100000184029341,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bounded-function","display_name":"Bounded function","score":0.7019000053405762},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/imperfect","display_name":"Imperfect","score":0.5712000131607056},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/preference","display_name":"Preference","score":0.4657999873161316},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/position","display_name":"Position (finance)","score":0.4609000086784363},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/identity","display_name":"Identity (music)","score":0.4302999973297119},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ideology","display_name":"Ideology","score":0.4180999994277954},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/range","display_name":"Range (aeronautics)","score":0.38190001249313354},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/action","display_name":"Action (physics)","score":0.37209999561309814}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C34388435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2267362","display_name":"Bounded function","level":2,"score":0.7019000053405762},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780310539","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12547192","display_name":"Imperfect","level":2,"score":0.5712000131607056},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.4677000045776367},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781249084","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q908656","display_name":"Preference","level":2,"score":0.4657999873161316},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C198082294","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3399648","display_name":"Position (finance)","level":2,"score":0.4609000086784363},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144237770","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q747534","display_name":"Mathematical economics","level":1,"score":0.4341000020503998},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778355321","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17079427","display_name":"Identity (music)","level":2,"score":0.4302999973297119},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C158071213","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7257","display_name":"Ideology","level":3,"score":0.4180999994277954},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.3847000002861023},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204323151","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q905424","display_name":"Range (aeronautics)","level":2,"score":0.38190001249313354},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780791683","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q846785","display_name":"Action (physics)","level":2,"score":0.37209999561309814},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.35359999537467957},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C28901747","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q177571","display_name":"Decision theory","level":2,"score":0.34209999442100525},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71139939","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q910194","display_name":"Modal","level":2,"score":0.3086000084877014},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C110121322","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q865811","display_name":"Distribution (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.301800012588501},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C98184364","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1780131","display_name":"Argument (complex analysis)","level":2,"score":0.2971000075340271},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C192209626","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q190909","display_name":"Focus (optics)","level":2,"score":0.2863999903202057},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778572836","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q380933","display_name":"Space (punctuation)","level":2,"score":0.2831000089645386},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C157660682","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q419793","display_name":"Accommodation","level":2,"score":0.27399998903274536},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C91229774","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q193885","display_name":"Infinitesimal","level":2,"score":0.27070000767707825},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.2685000002384186},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779664074","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3518405","display_name":"Terminal (telecommunication)","level":2,"score":0.2678999900817871},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.2653000056743622},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C118084267","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q26110","display_name":"Positive economics","level":1,"score":0.2621999979019165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C37736160","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1801315","display_name":"Adversarial system","level":2,"score":0.2621000111103058},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C114614502","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q76592","display_name":"Combinatorics","level":1,"score":0.2565000057220459},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149441793","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q200726","display_name":"Probability distribution","level":2,"score":0.25600001215934753},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C196083921","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7915758","display_name":"Variance (accounting)","level":2,"score":0.25099998712539673}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2604.27694","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2604.27694","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2604.27694","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2604.27694","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Peace, Justice and strong institutions","score":0.6774319410324097,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Renewed":[0],"attention":[1],"to":[2,126,130,145,236],"the":[3,15,37,46,52,56,75,83,100,139,146,156,161,165,175,179,190,215,224,231,256,259],"identity":[4],"of":[5,44,63,85,103,199,210],"Bitcoin's":[6],"pseudonymous":[7],"creator":[8],"has":[9],"revived":[10],"an":[11,208],"old":[12],"worry:":[13],"that":[14,36,107],"roughly":[16],"1.148":[17],"million":[18],"BTC":[19],"mined":[20],"by":[21,155,178],"Satoshi":[22],"and":[23,55,99,164,188,230],"never":[24],"moved":[25],"represent":[26],"a":[27,86,96,114,119,131,142,149,202],"major":[28],"tail":[29],"risk":[30],"for":[31,69,239],"bitcoin.":[32],"This":[33],"paper":[34],"argues":[35],"worry":[38],"is":[39,48,228],"overstated.":[40],"The":[41,134,243],"mechanical":[42,225],"downside":[43,140],"selling":[45],"position":[47,76],"bounded":[49,154],"well":[50],"below":[51],"feared":[53],"collapse,":[54],"outcomes":[57,233],"most":[58],"consistent":[59],"with":[60,118],"sixteen":[61],"years":[62],"observed":[64],"behavior":[65],"are":[66,153,234],"not":[67,246],"bearish":[68],"bitcoin's":[70,108,240],"effective":[71,241],"supply.":[72,242],"We":[73],"analyze":[74],"in":[77],"two":[78],"ways.":[79],"First,":[80],"we":[81,173],"model":[82],"case":[84,163,167,227],"purely":[87],"financial":[88],"holder.":[89],"Multiple":[90],"sale":[91,117,144,206],"scenarios,":[92],"checked":[93],"against":[94],"both":[95,152,169,222],"square-root-law":[97],"estimate":[98],"historical":[101],"record":[102,216],"large":[104],"sales,":[105],"suggest":[106],"current":[109],"market":[110],"liquidity":[111],"could":[112],"absorb":[113],"patient":[115],"multi-year":[116],"cumulative":[120],"price":[121],"impact":[122],"centered":[123],"around":[124],"10":[125],"13":[127],"percent":[128],"relative":[129],"no-sale":[132],"case.":[133],"same":[135,157],"arithmetic":[136],"also":[137],"links":[138],"from":[141,148],"surprise":[143],"upside":[147],"confirmed":[150],"burn:":[151],"effective-supply":[158],"adjustment,":[159],"so":[160],"doom":[162],"burn-rally":[166],"cannot":[168],"be":[170],"large.":[171],"Second,":[172],"consider":[174],"preferences":[176],"implied":[177],"sixteen-year":[180],"record.":[181],"Ideological":[182],"restraint,":[183],"privacy,":[184],"already":[185],"having":[186],"enough,":[187],"preserving":[189],"myth":[191],"all":[192],"point":[193],"toward":[194],"further":[195],"dormancy,":[196],"permanent":[197],"loss":[198],"access,":[200],"or":[201,207,251],"deliberate":[203],"burn.":[204],"A":[205],"act":[209],"sabotage":[211],"remains":[212],"possible,":[213],"but":[214],"supports":[217],"it":[218,254],"less":[219],"strongly.":[220],"Under":[221],"approaches,":[223],"bear":[226],"bounded,":[229],"likeliest":[232],"neutral":[235],"mildly":[237],"positive":[238],"argument":[244],"does":[245],"rule":[247],"out":[248],"transient":[249],"overshoot":[250],"leverage-driven":[252],"amplification;":[253],"bounds":[255],"durable":[257],"repricing":[258],"coins":[260],"themselves":[261],"can":[262],"cause.":[263]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-07-09T05:49:46.723101","created_date":"2026-05-02T00:00:00"}
