{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7156645014","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2604.22766","title":"Artificial General Intelligence Forecasting and Scenario Analysis: State of the Field, Methodological Gaps, and Strategic Implications","display_name":"Artificial General Intelligence Forecasting and Scenario Analysis: State of the Field, Methodological Gaps, and Strategic Implications","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-03-24","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7156645014","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2604.22766"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2604.22766","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2604.22766","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2604.22766","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5047979219","display_name":"Gopal Sarma","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9413-6202"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Sarma, Gopal P.","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5134806218","display_name":"Sunny D. Bhatt","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Bhatt, Sunny D.","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5134801904","display_name":"Michael Jacob","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jacob, Michael","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5134759485","display_name":"Rachel Steratore","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Steratore, Rachel","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10883","display_name":"Ethics and Social Impacts of AI","score":0.11800000071525574,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3311","display_name":"Safety Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10883","display_name":"Ethics and Social Impacts of AI","score":0.11800000071525574,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3311","display_name":"Safety Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13910","display_name":"Computational and Text Analysis Methods","score":0.07150000333786011,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3300","display_name":"General Social Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11636","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare and Education","score":0.05889999866485596,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2718","display_name":"Health Informatics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/state","display_name":"State (computer science)","score":0.486299991607666},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/key","display_name":"Key (lock)","score":0.3596000075340271},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/technology-forecasting","display_name":"Technology forecasting","score":0.3231000006198883},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/demand-forecasting","display_name":"Demand forecasting","score":0.29739999771118164},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-general-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial general intelligence","score":0.26919999718666077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/iterative-and-incremental-development","display_name":"Iterative and incremental development","score":0.25690001249313354}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.6403999924659729},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.5038999915122986},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C48103436","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q599031","display_name":"State (computer science)","level":2,"score":0.486299991607666},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42475967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194292","display_name":"Operations research","level":1,"score":0.39010000228881836},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C539667460","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2414942","display_name":"Management science","level":1,"score":0.37290000915527344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C26517878","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q228039","display_name":"Key (lock)","level":2,"score":0.3596000075340271},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C161657586","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1203326","display_name":"Technology forecasting","level":2,"score":0.3231000006198883},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.29980000853538513},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C193809577","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3409300","display_name":"Demand forecasting","level":2,"score":0.29739999771118164},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162027153","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2264109","display_name":"Artificial general intelligence","level":2,"score":0.26919999718666077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2522767166","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2374463","display_name":"Data science","level":1,"score":0.2669000029563904},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C143587482","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1543216","display_name":"Iterative and incremental development","level":2,"score":0.25690001249313354},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C50644808","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q192776","display_name":"Artificial neural network","level":2,"score":0.2556000053882599},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C108583219","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q197536","display_name":"Deep learning","level":2,"score":0.2526000142097473},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163068380","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3409313","display_name":"Economic forecasting","level":2,"score":0.25189998745918274}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2604.22766","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2604.22766","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2604.22766","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2604.22766","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/9","score":0.6217369437217712,"display_name":"Industry, innovation and infrastructure"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"In":[0],"this":[1,86],"report,":[2],"we":[3],"review":[4],"the":[5,12,23,92],"current":[6],"state":[7],"of":[8,14,70,91],"methodologies":[9],"to":[10,79],"forecast":[11,57],"arrival":[13],"artificial":[15,82],"general":[16],"intelligence,":[17],"assess":[18],"their":[19],"reliability,":[20],"and":[21,27,40,81,105,117],"analyze":[22],"implications":[24],"for":[25,45,65,85],"strategy":[26],"policy.":[28],"We":[29,73],"synthesize":[30],"diverse":[31],"forecasting":[32,48],"approaches,":[33],"document":[34],"significant":[35],"limitations":[36],"in":[37],"existing":[38],"methods,":[39],"propose":[41],"a":[42,55,63],"research":[43],"agenda":[44],"developing":[46],"more-robust":[47],"infrastructure.":[49],"The":[50,88],"report":[51],"does":[52],"not":[53],"endorse":[54],"specific":[56],"or":[58],"scenario":[59],"but":[60],"rather":[61],"provides":[62],"framework":[64],"interpreting":[66],"forecasts":[67],"under":[68],"conditions":[69],"deep":[71],"uncertainty.":[72],"experimented":[74],"with":[75,109],"an":[76],"iterative":[77],"approach":[78],"human":[80,110],"intelligence":[83],"collaboration":[84],"report.":[87],"primary":[89],"drafting":[90],"text":[93],"was":[94],"performed":[95],"by":[96],"large":[97],"language":[98],"models":[99],"(GPT":[100],"5.1,":[101],"Gemini":[102],"3":[103],"Pro,":[104],"Claude":[106],"4.5":[107],"Opus),":[108],"researchers":[111],"providing":[112],"direction,":[113],"peer":[114],"review,":[115],"fact-checking,":[116],"revision.":[118]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-07-28T07:46:37.118299","created_date":"2026-04-29T00:00:00"}
