{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7154991824","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2604.15674","title":"Can LLMs Help Decentralized Dispute Arbitration? A Case Study of UMA-Resolved Markets on Polymarket","display_name":"Can LLMs Help Decentralized Dispute Arbitration? A Case Study of UMA-Resolved Markets on Polymarket","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-04-17","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7154991824","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2604.15674"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2604.15674","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2604.15674","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2604.15674","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5134089086","display_name":"Junhao Wen","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Wen, Junhao","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5134040179","display_name":"Juncen Zhou","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Zhou, Juncen","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5134051671","display_name":"Junjie Huang","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Huang, Junjie","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.5099999904632568,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.5099999904632568,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12026","display_name":"Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)","score":0.04820000007748604,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13643","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence in Law","score":0.03359999880194664,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3320","display_name":"Political Science and International Relations"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/quality","display_name":"Quality (philosophy)","score":0.5177000164985657},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/voting","display_name":"Voting","score":0.49000000953674316},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/event","display_name":"Event (particle physics)","score":0.4625000059604645},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/process","display_name":"Process (computing)","score":0.4156000018119812},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/outcome","display_name":"Outcome (game theory)","score":0.39750000834465027}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779530757","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1207505","display_name":"Quality (philosophy)","level":2,"score":0.5177000164985657},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C520049643","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q189760","display_name":"Voting","level":3,"score":0.49000000953674316},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779662365","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5416694","display_name":"Event (particle physics)","level":2,"score":0.4625000059604645},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C98045186","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q205663","display_name":"Process (computing)","level":2,"score":0.4156000018119812},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.40720000863075256},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C148220186","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7111912","display_name":"Outcome (game theory)","level":2,"score":0.39750000834465027},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.361299991607666},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779304628","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3503480","display_name":"Face (sociological concept)","level":2,"score":0.3569999933242798},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780021719","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q282283","display_name":"Prediction market","level":2,"score":0.3452000021934509},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127576917","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q624630","display_name":"Competitor analysis","level":2,"score":0.31439998745918274},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C190253527","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q295354","display_name":"Law and economics","level":1,"score":0.30660000443458557},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.28450000286102295},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162118730","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128453","display_name":"Actuarial science","level":1,"score":0.2741999924182892}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2604.15674","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2604.15674","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2604.15674","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2604.15674","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16","display_name":"Peace, Justice and strong institutions","score":0.7492877840995789}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Web3":[0],"prediction":[1,29],"markets,":[2],"exemplified":[3],"by":[4],"Polymarket,":[5],"have":[6],"gained":[7],"prominence":[8],"for":[9,58],"leveraging":[10],"collective":[11],"intelligence":[12],"to":[13,37,107,121],"forecast":[14],"a":[15,90,133],"wide":[16],"range":[17],"of":[18,28,84],"social,":[19],"political,":[20],"and":[21,60,95,146],"sports":[22],"events.":[23],"However,":[24],"among":[25],"the":[26,45,55,81],"thousands":[27],"market":[30,40,103],"events,":[31],"consensus":[32],"disputes":[33,110],"still":[34],"arise":[35],"due":[36],"imperfections":[38],"in":[39,129],"mechanisms.":[41],"On":[42],"Polymarket":[43],"alone,":[44],"trading":[46],"volume":[47],"involving":[48],"disputed":[49,128],"events":[50,104,125],"has":[51,92],"reached":[52],"$972,370,804.71,":[53],"underscoring":[54],"critical":[56],"need":[57],"objective":[59],"efficient":[61],"dispute":[62,91,134],"resolution.":[63],"In":[64],"this":[65],"study,":[66],"we":[67],"introduce":[68],"large":[69],"language":[70],"models":[71],"(LLMs)":[72],"to:":[73],"(1)":[74],"evaluate":[75],"whether":[76],"web-enabled":[77,137],"LLMs":[78,118,138],"can":[79],"reproduce":[80],"decision":[82],"quality":[83],"UMA's":[85,143],"on-chain":[86],"voting":[87],"process":[88],"once":[89,132],"been":[93],"raised,":[94],"(2)":[96],"predict,":[97],"based":[98],"on":[99],"event":[100],"rules,":[101],"which":[102,124],"are":[105,119],"likely":[106],"face":[108],"future":[109],"before":[111],"they":[112],"occur.":[113],"Our":[114],"findings":[115],"show":[116],"that":[117],"unable":[120],"reliably":[122],"predict":[123],"will":[126],"become":[127],"advance;":[130],"however,":[131],"is":[135],"initiated,":[136],"achieve":[139],"89.58%":[140],"agreement":[141],"with":[142],"final":[144],"resolutions":[145],"demonstrate":[147],"strong":[148],"stability.":[149]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-07-01T06:00:48.157686","created_date":"2026-04-21T00:00:00"}
