{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7151965985","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2604.06032","title":"Ensemble-Based Dirichlet Modeling for Predictive Uncertainty and Selective Classification","display_name":"Ensemble-Based Dirichlet Modeling for Predictive Uncertainty and Selective Classification","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-04-07","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7151965985","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2604.06032"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2604.06032","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2604.06032","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2604.06032","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5074614133","display_name":"Courtney N Franzen","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Franzen, Courtney","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5133021913","display_name":"Farhad Pourkamali-Anaraki","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Pourkamali-Anaraki, Farhad","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5074614133"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11689","display_name":"Adversarial Robustness in Machine Learning","score":0.9355000257492065,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11689","display_name":"Adversarial Robustness in Machine Learning","score":0.9355000257492065,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12026","display_name":"Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)","score":0.014399999752640724,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10775","display_name":"Generative Adversarial Networks and Image Synthesis","score":0.011800000444054604,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1707","display_name":"Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/softmax-function","display_name":"Softmax function","score":0.7843000292778015},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/estimator","display_name":"Estimator","score":0.5902000069618225},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/stability","display_name":"Stability (learning theory)","score":0.5012000203132629},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/reliability","display_name":"Reliability (semiconductor)","score":0.4986000061035156},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/uncertainty-quantification","display_name":"Uncertainty quantification","score":0.47920000553131104},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/dirichlet-distribution","display_name":"Dirichlet distribution","score":0.4684999883174896},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-neural-network","display_name":"Artificial neural network","score":0.4602000117301941},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/class","display_name":"Class (philosophy)","score":0.36899998784065247}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C188441871","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7554146","display_name":"Softmax function","level":3,"score":0.7843000292778015},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185429906","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1130160","display_name":"Estimator","level":2,"score":0.5902000069618225},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5716999769210815},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.5331000089645386},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.5152000188827515},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112972136","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7595718","display_name":"Stability (learning theory)","level":2,"score":0.5012000203132629},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43214815","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7310987","display_name":"Reliability (semiconductor)","level":3,"score":0.4986000061035156},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C32230216","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7882499","display_name":"Uncertainty quantification","level":2,"score":0.47920000553131104},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C169214877","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q981016","display_name":"Dirichlet distribution","level":3,"score":0.4684999883174896},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C50644808","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q192776","display_name":"Artificial neural network","level":2,"score":0.4602000117301941},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777212361","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5127848","display_name":"Class (philosophy)","level":2,"score":0.36899998784065247},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.3377000093460083},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.3172999918460846},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C45804977","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7239673","display_name":"Predictive modelling","level":2,"score":0.29490000009536743},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778136018","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q10350689","display_name":"Predictive power","level":2,"score":0.29350000619888306},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153180895","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7148389","display_name":"Pattern recognition (psychology)","level":2,"score":0.2883000075817108},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C96250715","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q965330","display_name":"Estimation","level":2,"score":0.2799000144004822},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C156201811","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5418360","display_name":"Evidential reasoning approach","level":4,"score":0.2759999930858612},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C136389625","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q334384","display_name":"Supervised learning","level":3,"score":0.27390000224113464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C63479239","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7353546","display_name":"Robustness (evolution)","level":3,"score":0.26499998569488525},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177769412","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q278090","display_name":"Prior probability","level":3,"score":0.25769999623298645},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C130648207","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6007562","display_name":"Imprecise probability","level":3,"score":0.2551000118255615}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2604.06032","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2604.06032","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2604.06032","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2604.06032","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Neural":[0],"network":[1],"classifiers":[2],"trained":[3],"with":[4,109],"cross-entropy":[5,134],"loss":[6,80,125],"achieve":[7],"strong":[8],"predictive":[9,18,139,151],"accuracy":[10],"but":[11,70],"lack":[12],"the":[13,34,46,122,130,147],"capability":[14],"to":[15,25,58,76,104],"provide":[16],"inherent":[17],"uncertainty":[19,64,119,152],"estimates,":[20],"thus":[21],"requiring":[22],"external":[23],"techniques":[24],"obtain":[26],"these":[27,60,155],"estimates.":[28],"In":[29],"addition,":[30],"softmax":[31,107],"scores":[32],"for":[33],"true":[35],"class":[36],"can":[37],"vary":[38],"substantially":[39],"across":[40],"independent":[41],"training":[42,72],"runs,":[43],"which":[44],"limits":[45],"reliability":[47],"of":[48,101,106,132,154],"uncertainty-based":[49],"decisions":[50],"in":[51,66,163],"downstream":[52,164],"tasks.":[53],"Evidential":[54],"Deep":[55],"Learning":[56],"aims":[57],"address":[59],"limitations":[61],"by":[62,97],"producing":[63,136],"estimates":[65,158],"a":[67,99],"single":[68],"pass,":[69],"evidential":[71,124],"is":[73],"highly":[74],"sensitive":[75],"design":[77,126],"choices":[78],"including":[79],"formulation,":[81],"prior":[82],"regularization,":[83],"and":[84,150,172],"activation":[85],"functions.":[86],"Therefore,":[87],"this":[88],"work":[89],"introduces":[90],"an":[91,110],"alternative":[92],"Dirichlet":[93,138,157],"parameter":[94],"estimation":[95,120],"strategy":[96],"applying":[98],"method":[100],"moments":[102],"estimator":[103],"ensembles":[105],"outputs,":[108],"optional":[111],"maximum-likelihood":[112],"refinement":[113],"step.":[114],"This":[115],"ensemble-based":[116],"construction":[117],"decouples":[118],"from":[121],"fragile":[123],"while":[127],"also":[128],"mitigating":[129],"variability":[131],"single-run":[133],"training,":[135],"explicit":[137],"distributions.":[140],"Across":[141],"multiple":[142],"datasets,":[143],"we":[144],"show":[145],"that":[146],"improved":[148],"stability":[149],"behavior":[153],"ensemble-derived":[156],"translate":[159],"into":[160],"stronger":[161],"performance":[162],"uncertainty-guided":[165],"applications":[166],"such":[167],"as":[168],"prediction":[169],"confidence":[170],"scoring":[171],"selective":[173],"classification.":[174]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-04-09T06:13:59.934233","created_date":"2026-04-09T00:00:00"}
