{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7147024730","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2603.27056","title":"Persona-Based Simulation of Human Opinion at Population Scale","display_name":"Persona-Based Simulation of Human Opinion at Population Scale","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-03-28","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7147024730","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2603.27056"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2603.27056","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2603.27056","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2603.27056","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5132605758","display_name":"Mao Li","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Li, Mao","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5028869415","display_name":"Frederick G. Conrad","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1933-3273"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Conrad, Frederick G.","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14074","display_name":"Persona Design and Applications","score":0.958899974822998,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1709","display_name":"Human-Computer Interaction"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14074","display_name":"Persona Design and Applications","score":0.958899974822998,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1709","display_name":"Human-Computer Interaction"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10664","display_name":"Sentiment Analysis and Opinion Mining","score":0.0015999999595806003,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12488","display_name":"Mental Health via Writing","score":0.0015999999595806003,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3207","display_name":"Social Psychology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/32","display_name":"Psychology"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/persona","display_name":"Persona","score":0.8959000110626221},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/respondent","display_name":"Respondent","score":0.7020000219345093},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/personality","display_name":"Personality","score":0.5638999938964844},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/function","display_name":"Function (biology)","score":0.546500027179718},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/inference","display_name":"Inference","score":0.5358999967575073},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/population","display_name":"Population","score":0.5347999930381775},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/narrative","display_name":"Narrative","score":0.5131000280380249},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/public-opinion","display_name":"Public opinion","score":0.42340001463890076}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C313442","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q778556","display_name":"Persona","level":2,"score":0.8959000110626221},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776640315","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7315941","display_name":"Respondent","level":2,"score":0.7020000219345093},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C187288502","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q641118","display_name":"Personality","level":2,"score":0.5638999938964844},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C14036430","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3736076","display_name":"Function (biology)","level":2,"score":0.546500027179718},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776214188","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q408386","display_name":"Inference","level":2,"score":0.5358999967575073},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.5347999930381775},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199033989","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1318295","display_name":"Narrative","level":2,"score":0.5131000280380249},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77805123","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q161272","display_name":"Social psychology","level":1,"score":0.47290000319480896},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.46880000829696655},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.4307999908924103},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2522767166","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2374463","display_name":"Data science","level":1,"score":0.4262000024318695},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134698397","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17946","display_name":"Public opinion","level":3,"score":0.42340001463890076},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778755073","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q10858537","display_name":"Scale (ratio)","level":2,"score":0.396699994802475},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11192451","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2032038","display_name":"Stylometry","level":2,"score":0.3959999978542328},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126349790","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q905036","display_name":"Computational sociology","level":2,"score":0.3831000030040741},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C518677369","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q202833","display_name":"Social media","level":2,"score":0.3596999943256378},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C198531522","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q485146","display_name":"Sample (material)","level":2,"score":0.34619998931884766},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.3165000081062317},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.3133000135421753},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C117035363","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3769299","display_name":"Human behavior","level":2,"score":0.3034999966621399},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C25908422","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q271716","display_name":"Personality psychology","level":3,"score":0.2994000017642975},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C27415008","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7256382","display_name":"Psychological intervention","level":2,"score":0.28839999437332153},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C180747234","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23373","display_name":"Cognitive psychology","level":1,"score":0.2849999964237213},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2865642","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q378132","display_name":"Big Five personality traits","level":3,"score":0.27399998903274536},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781162219","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q26250693","display_name":"Replicate","level":2,"score":0.250900000333786}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2603.27056","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2603.27056","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2603.27056","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2603.27056","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"What":[0],"does":[1],"it":[2],"mean":[3],"to":[4,10,18,133,144],"model":[5],"a":[6,90,150],"person,":[7],"not":[8,41],"merely":[9],"predict":[11],"isolated":[12],"responses,":[13],"preferences,":[14],"or":[15,142],"behaviors,":[16],"but":[17,48],"simulate":[19],"how":[20],"an":[21],"individual":[22],"interprets":[23],"events,":[24],"forms":[25],"opinions,":[26],"makes":[27],"judgments,":[28],"and":[29,44,52,85,116,125,171,195],"acts":[30],"consistently":[31],"across":[32],"contexts?":[33],"This":[34],"question":[35],"matters":[36],"because":[37],"social":[38,107],"science":[39],"requires":[40],"only":[42],"observing":[43],"predicting":[45],"human":[46],"outcomes,":[47],"also":[49],"simulating":[50],"interventions":[51],"their":[53],"consequences.":[54],"Although":[55],"large":[56],"language":[57],"models":[58],"(LLMs)":[59],"can":[60,184],"generate":[61],"human-like":[62,173],"answers,":[63],"most":[64],"existing":[65],"approaches":[66],"remain":[67],"predictive,":[68],"relying":[69],"on":[70],"demographic":[71,169],"correlations":[72],"rather":[73,96],"than":[74,97,168],"representations":[75],"of":[76,155],"individuals":[77,137],"themselves.":[78],"We":[79,178],"introduce":[80],"SPIRIT":[81,99],"(Semi-structured":[82],"Persona":[83],"Inference":[84],"Reasoning":[86],"for":[87,94,190],"Individualized":[88],"Trajectories),":[89],"framework":[91],"designed":[92],"explicitly":[93],"simulation":[95],"prediction.":[98],"infers":[100],"psychologically":[101],"grounded,":[102],"semi-structured":[103],"personas":[104,129],"from":[105],"public":[106,197],"media":[108],"posts,":[109],"integrating":[110],"structured":[111],"attributes":[112],"(e.g.,":[113],"personality":[114],"traits":[115],"world":[117],"beliefs)":[118],"with":[119],"unstructured":[120],"narrative":[121],"text":[122],"reflecting":[123],"values":[124],"lived":[126],"experience.":[127],"These":[128],"prompt":[130],"LLM-based":[131],"agents":[132],"act":[134],"as":[135,186],"specific":[136],"when":[138],"answering":[139],"survey":[140],"questions":[141],"responding":[143],"events.":[145],"Using":[146],"the":[147],"Ipsos":[148],"KnowledgePanel,":[149],"nationally":[151],"representative":[152],"probability":[153],"sample":[154],"U.S.":[156],"adults,":[157],"we":[158],"show":[159],"that":[160,181],"SPIRIT-conditioned":[161],"simulations":[162],"recover":[163],"self-reported":[164],"responses":[165],"more":[166],"faithfully":[167],"persona":[170,182],"reproduce":[172],"heterogeneity":[174],"in":[175],"response":[176],"patterns.":[177],"further":[179],"demonstrate":[180],"banks":[183],"function":[185],"virtual":[187],"respondent":[188],"panels":[189],"studying":[191],"both":[192],"stable":[193],"attitudes":[194],"time-sensitive":[196],"opinion.":[198]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-07-01T06:00:48.157686","created_date":"2026-04-02T00:00:00"}
