{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7140179308","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2603.20570","title":"Global Cybercrime Damages: A Baseline for Frontier AI Risk Assessment","display_name":"Global Cybercrime Damages: A Baseline for Frontier AI Risk Assessment","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-03-21","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7140179308","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2603.20570"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2603.20570","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2603.20570","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2603.20570","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Luko\u0161i\u016bt\u0117, Kamil\u0117","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Luko\u0161i\u016bt\u0117, Kamil\u0117","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Halstead, John","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Halstead, John","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Righetti, Luca","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Righetti, Luca","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12519","display_name":"Cybercrime and Law Enforcement Studies","score":0.2921999990940094,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1710","display_name":"Information Systems"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12519","display_name":"Cybercrime and Law Enforcement Studies","score":0.2921999990940094,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1710","display_name":"Information Systems"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13851","display_name":"Law, AI, and Intellectual Property","score":0.13689999282360077,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10734","display_name":"Information and Cyber Security","score":0.07479999959468842,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1710","display_name":"Information Systems"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cybercrime","display_name":"Cybercrime","score":0.9584000110626221},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/damages","display_name":"Damages","score":0.7870000004768372},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/baseline","display_name":"Baseline (sea)","score":0.5479999780654907},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/law-enforcement","display_name":"Law enforcement","score":0.49140000343322754},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/societal-impact-of-nanotechnology","display_name":"Societal impact of nanotechnology","score":0.46630001068115234},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/frontier","display_name":"Frontier","score":0.42489999532699585},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/enforcement","display_name":"Enforcement","score":0.4187000095844269},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/data-breach","display_name":"Data breach","score":0.3968000113964081}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779390178","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q29137","display_name":"Cybercrime","level":3,"score":0.9584000110626221},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777381055","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q308922","display_name":"Damages","level":2,"score":0.7870000004768372},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C12725497","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q810247","display_name":"Baseline (sea)","level":2,"score":0.5479999780654907},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780262971","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q44554","display_name":"Law enforcement","level":2,"score":0.49140000343322754},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C38652104","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3510521","display_name":"Computer security","level":1,"score":0.47130000591278076},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C80783014","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1754062","display_name":"Societal impact of nanotechnology","level":2,"score":0.46630001068115234},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778571376","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1355821","display_name":"Frontier","level":2,"score":0.42489999532699585},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.42100000381469727},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779777834","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4202277","display_name":"Enforcement","level":2,"score":0.4187000095844269},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165609540","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1172486","display_name":"Data breach","level":2,"score":0.3968000113964081},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C176856949","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2001676","display_name":"Offensive","level":2,"score":0.3921999931335449},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778755073","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q10858537","display_name":"Scale (ratio)","level":2,"score":0.390500009059906},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162118730","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128453","display_name":"Actuarial science","level":1,"score":0.37119999527931213},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781198186","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q701521","display_name":"Collusion","level":2,"score":0.335999995470047},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C188897","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5333508","display_name":"Economic impact analysis","level":2,"score":0.326200008392334},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.3248000144958496},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.31150001287460327},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C183469790","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q333501","display_name":"Crash","level":2,"score":0.2924000024795532},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C60643870","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1949683","display_name":"Deterrence theory","level":2,"score":0.2802000045776367},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.26930001378059387},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3017944768","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1450463","display_name":"Poison control","level":2,"score":0.26930001378059387},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C175291020","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1156822","display_name":"Offset (computer science)","level":2,"score":0.2671000063419342},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C10138342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43015","display_name":"Finance","level":1,"score":0.26429998874664307},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C541664917","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q14001","display_name":"Malware","level":2,"score":0.2619999945163727},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C108827166","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q175975","display_name":"Internet privacy","level":1,"score":0.25429999828338623}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2603.20570","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2603.20570","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2603.20570","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2603.20570","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.8342804908752441,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16","display_name":"Peace, Justice and strong institutions"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"AI":[0,9,205],"companies":[1,181],"and":[2,64,88,109,112,131,143,201],"governments":[3],"are":[4],"increasingly":[5],"concerned":[6],"about":[7,170,232],"frontier":[8],"systems":[10],"enabling":[11],"cybercrime,":[12],"yet":[13],"defining":[14],"meaningful":[15],"capability":[16],"thresholds":[17,179],"requires":[18],"knowing":[19],"the":[20,103,113],"scale":[21],"of":[22,27,34,38,40,46,117,169,204,220],"cybercrime":[23,29,150,188,234],"today.":[24],"Current":[25],"estimates":[26,216],"global":[28,89,149],"damages":[30,125,151],"vary":[31],"from":[32,69,99,217],"tens":[33,37],"billions":[35],"to":[36,197,222],"trillions":[39],"dollars,":[41],"with":[42],"little":[43],"systematic":[44],"evaluation":[45],"their":[47,62],"reliability.":[48],"We":[49,120,146],"establish":[50],"a":[51,66,73,223,228],"more":[52,224],"rigorous":[53],"baseline":[54],"by":[55],"surveying":[56],"27":[57],"existing":[58],"estimates,":[59],"critically":[60],"evaluating":[61],"methodologies,":[63],"constructing":[65],"composite":[67],"estimate":[68,147],"three":[70],"independent":[71],"sources:":[72],"nationally":[74],"representative":[75],"UK":[76],"business":[77],"victimization":[78,84,94],"survey":[79],"scaled":[80,86],"globally,":[81,87],"US":[82],"individual":[83],"data":[85,189],"cybersecurity":[90],"spending":[91,133],"figures.":[92],"Large-sample":[93],"surveys":[95],"capture":[96],"losses":[97],"directly":[98,199],"victims,":[100],"avoiding":[101],"both":[102],"reporting":[104],"bias":[105],"in":[106],"law":[107],"enforcement":[108],"industry":[110],"databases":[111],"heavy":[114],"modeling":[115],"assumptions":[116],"macroeconomic":[118],"approaches.":[119],"focus":[121],"on":[122],"quantifiable":[123],"economic":[124],"--":[126,134],"direct":[127],"losses,":[128],"response":[129],"costs,":[130],"defense":[132],"excluding":[135],"harder-to-measure":[136],"costs":[137],"such":[138,194],"as":[139,183],"intellectual":[140],"property":[141],"theft":[142],"reputational":[144],"damage.":[145],"total":[148],"at":[152],"approximately":[153],"\\$500":[154],"billion":[155,175],"USD":[156],"annually":[157],"(90%":[158],"CI:":[159],"\\$100":[160,174],"billion-\\$1":[161],"trillion).":[162],"At":[163],"this":[164],"baseline,":[165,226],"an":[166],"AI-driven":[167],"increase":[168],"20%":[171],"would":[172],"add":[173],"or":[176],"more,":[177],"reaching":[178],"some":[180],"identify":[182],"warranting":[184],"additional":[185],"mitigations.":[186],"However,":[187],"remains":[190],"too":[191],"incomplete":[192],"for":[193,230],"incremental":[195],"increases":[196],"be":[198],"detectable,":[200],"defensive":[202],"applications":[203],"may":[206],"partially":[207],"offset":[208],"offensive":[209],"gains.":[210],"Our":[211],"methodology":[212],"narrows":[213],"plausible":[214],"damage":[215],"multiple":[218],"orders":[219],"magnitude":[221],"confident":[225],"providing":[227],"foundation":[229],"decision-making":[231],"AI-related":[233],"risk.":[235]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-04-25T08:17:42.794288","created_date":"2026-03-25T00:00:00"}
