{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7140203545","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2603.20229","title":"Characterizing the ability of LLMs to recapitulate Americans' distributional responses to public opinion polling questions across political issues","display_name":"Characterizing the ability of LLMs to recapitulate Americans' distributional responses to public opinion polling questions across political issues","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-03-06","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7140203545","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2603.20229"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2603.20229","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2603.20229","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2603.20229","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Gong, Eric","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Gong, Eric","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Sanders, Nathan E.","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Sanders, Nathan E.","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Schneier, Bruce","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Schneier, Bruce","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11539","display_name":"Survey Methodology and Nonresponse","score":0.21649999916553497,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11539","display_name":"Survey Methodology and Nonresponse","score":0.21649999916553497,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13274","display_name":"Expert finding and Q&A systems","score":0.1281999945640564,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1710","display_name":"Information Systems"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11704","display_name":"Mobile Crowdsensing and Crowdsourcing","score":0.07840000092983246,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1706","display_name":"Computer Science Applications"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/polling","display_name":"Polling","score":0.9681000113487244},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/politics","display_name":"Politics","score":0.6068999767303467},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/demographics","display_name":"Demographics","score":0.5906999707221985},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/public-opinion","display_name":"Public opinion","score":0.5662000179290771},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/population","display_name":"Population","score":0.5192000269889832},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/variety","display_name":"Variety (cybernetics)","score":0.4961000084877014},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/key","display_name":"Key (lock)","score":0.38499999046325684}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204854418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1362921","display_name":"Polling","level":2,"score":0.9681000113487244},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C94625758","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7163","display_name":"Politics","level":2,"score":0.6068999767303467},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780084366","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demographics","level":2,"score":0.5906999707221985},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134698397","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17946","display_name":"Public opinion","level":3,"score":0.5662000179290771},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.5192000269889832},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C136197465","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1729295","display_name":"Variety (cybernetics)","level":2,"score":0.4961000084877014},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.4009999930858612},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2522767166","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2374463","display_name":"Data science","level":1,"score":0.3937999904155731},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C26517878","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q228039","display_name":"Key (lock)","level":2,"score":0.38499999046325684},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779530757","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1207505","display_name":"Quality (philosophy)","level":2,"score":0.3824999928474426},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C100001284","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2248246","display_name":"Public economics","level":1,"score":0.37619999051094055},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776325391","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6917865","display_name":"Motivated reasoning","level":3,"score":0.3743000030517578},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C158154518","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7310970","display_name":"Relevance (law)","level":2,"score":0.3635999858379364},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C110121322","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q865811","display_name":"Distribution (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.3571999967098236},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39549134","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q133080","display_name":"Public relations","level":1,"score":0.33730000257492065},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.31630000472068787},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204323151","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q905424","display_name":"Range (aeronautics)","level":2,"score":0.2784999907016754},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.27810001373291016},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C198477413","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7647069","display_name":"Survey data collection","level":2,"score":0.2667999863624573},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C118084267","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q26110","display_name":"Positive economics","level":1,"score":0.2644999921321869},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777766161","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5195069","display_name":"Current Population Survey","level":3,"score":0.25380000472068787},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C555826173","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7174","display_name":"Democracy","level":3,"score":0.2524000108242035}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2603.20229","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2603.20229","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2603.20229","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2603.20229","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Traditional":[0],"survey-based":[1],"political":[2,65],"issue":[3,66,88],"polling":[4,50,67,183],"is":[5,196],"becoming":[6],"less":[7],"tractable":[8],"due":[9],"to":[10,44,74,82,126,135,184],"increasing":[11],"costs":[12],"and":[13,22,31,54,85,112,170,174],"risk":[14],"of":[15,25,78,90,103,110,117,162],"bias":[16],"associated":[17],"with":[18],"growing":[19],"non-response":[20],"rates":[21],"declining":[23],"coverage":[24],"key":[26],"demographic":[27],"groups.":[28],"With":[29],"researchers":[30],"pollsters":[32],"seeking":[33],"alternatives,":[34],"Large":[35],"Language":[36],"Models":[37],"have":[38],"drawn":[39],"attention":[40],"for":[41,59,179],"their":[42],"potential":[43],"augment":[45],"human":[46,61],"population":[47],"studies":[48],"in":[49],"contexts.":[51],"We":[52,139],"propose":[53],"implement":[55],"a":[56,76,83,108,115,194],"new":[57],"framework":[58,105,124,143,165],"anticipating":[60],"responses":[62],"on":[63,114],"multiple-choice":[64],"questions":[68,113],"by":[69],"directly":[70],"prompting":[71],"an":[72],"LLM":[73],"predict":[75],"distribution":[77],"responses.":[79],"By":[80],"comparison":[81],"large":[84],"high":[86],"quality":[87],"poll":[89],"the":[91,94,101,141,160,163],"US":[92],"population,":[93],"Cooperative":[95],"Election":[96],"Study,":[97],"we":[98,158],"evaluate":[99],"how":[100,122],"accuracy":[102],"this":[104,123],"varies":[106,166],"across":[107,172],"range":[109],"demographics":[111,173],"variety":[116],"topics,":[118],"as":[119,121],"well":[120],"compares":[125],"previously":[127],"proposed":[128,142,164],"frameworks":[129],"where":[130],"LLMs":[131],"are":[132],"repeatedly":[133],"queried":[134],"simulate":[136],"individual":[137,150],"respondents.":[138],"find":[140,159],"consistently":[144],"exhibits":[145],"more":[146,168],"accurate":[147],"predictions":[148],"than":[149],"querying":[151],"at":[152],"significantly":[153],"lower":[154],"cost.":[155],"In":[156],"addition,":[157],"performance":[161,188],"much":[167],"systematically":[169],"predictably":[171],"questions,":[175],"making":[176],"it":[177],"possible":[178],"those":[180],"performing":[181],"AI":[182],"better":[185],"anticipate":[186],"model":[187],"using":[189],"only":[190],"information":[191],"available":[192],"before":[193],"query":[195],"issued.":[197]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-04-25T08:17:42.794288","created_date":"2026-03-25T00:00:00"}
