{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7135228437","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2603.11905","title":"Risk-Based Dynamic Thermal Rating in Distribution Transformers via Probabilistic Forecasting","display_name":"Risk-Based Dynamic Thermal Rating in Distribution Transformers via Probabilistic Forecasting","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-03-12","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7135228437","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2603.11905"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2603.11905","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2603.11905","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2603.11905","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5078868171","display_name":"Scott V. Angus","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4047-8255"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Angus, Scott","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5085763147","display_name":"Jethro Browell","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5960-666X"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Browell, Jethro","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5129091373","display_name":"David Greenwood","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Greenwood, David","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5038484843","display_name":"Matthew Deakin","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1291-1317"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Deakin, Matthew","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12804","display_name":"Thermal Analysis in Power Transmission","score":0.3799999952316284,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2207","display_name":"Control and Systems Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12804","display_name":"Thermal Analysis in Power Transmission","score":0.3799999952316284,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2207","display_name":"Control and Systems Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11343","display_name":"Power Transformer Diagnostics and Insulation","score":0.33980000019073486,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11052","display_name":"Energy Load and Power Forecasting","score":0.11810000240802765,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-logic","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","score":0.6549999713897705},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/overheating","display_name":"Overheating (electricity)","score":0.5687000155448914},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/transformer","display_name":"Transformer","score":0.4819999933242798},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-forecasting","display_name":"Probabilistic forecasting","score":0.44530001282691956},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/quantile-regression","display_name":"Quantile regression","score":0.4269999861717224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/distribution-transformer","display_name":"Distribution transformer","score":0.4262000024318695},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/quantile","display_name":"Quantile","score":0.4162999987602234}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.6549999713897705},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778284599","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25340000","display_name":"Overheating (electricity)","level":2,"score":0.5687000155448914},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C200601418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2193887","display_name":"Reliability engineering","level":1,"score":0.5346999764442444},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.4966000020503998},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C66322947","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11658","display_name":"Transformer","level":3,"score":0.4819999933242798},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C122282355","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7246855","display_name":"Probabilistic forecasting","level":3,"score":0.44530001282691956},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C63817138","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3455889","display_name":"Quantile regression","level":2,"score":0.4269999861717224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C117323899","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1907989","display_name":"Distribution transformer","level":4,"score":0.4262000024318695},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C118671147","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q578714","display_name":"Quantile","level":2,"score":0.4162999987602234},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.3571000099182129},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C193809577","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3409300","display_name":"Demand forecasting","level":2,"score":0.34389999508857727},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149441793","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q200726","display_name":"Probability distribution","level":2,"score":0.33489999175071716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C114289077","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3284399","display_name":"Statistical model","level":2,"score":0.32339999079704285},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C60782215","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3333679","display_name":"Probabilistic method","level":3,"score":0.287200003862381},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C146481406","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q105131","display_name":"Hotspot (geology)","level":2,"score":0.2605000138282776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11489865","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q944806","display_name":"Operational risk","level":3,"score":0.2540999948978424},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777819126","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1326624","display_name":"Electric utility","level":2,"score":0.25099998712539673},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165064840","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1321061","display_name":"Matching (statistics)","level":2,"score":0.2508000135421753}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2603.11905","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2603.11905","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2603.11905","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2603.11905","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Low":[0],"voltage":[1],"(LV)":[2],"distribution":[3,32,138],"transformers":[4,33],"face":[5],"accelerating":[6],"demand":[7],"growth":[8],"while":[9],"replacement":[10],"lead":[11],"times":[12],"and":[13,26,36,79,152],"costs":[14],"continue":[15],"to":[16,114,141,149],"rise,":[17],"making":[18],"improved":[19],"utilisation":[20],"of":[21,41,72,144],"existing":[22],"assets":[23],"essential.":[24],"Static":[25],"conservative":[27],"protection":[28,55],"devices":[29],"(PDs)":[30],"in":[31],"are":[34],"inflexible":[35],"limit":[37],"the":[38,42,62,68,73,99,122],"available":[39],"headroom":[40],"transformer.":[43],"This":[44],"paper":[45],"presents":[46],"a":[47,108,134],"probabilistic":[48],"framework":[49],"for":[50,137],"dynamically":[51],"forecasting":[52,93],"optimal":[53],"thermal":[54,70],"settings.":[56],"The":[57],"proposed":[58],"approach":[59,136],"directly":[60,97],"predicts":[61],"day-ahead":[63],"scale":[64],"factor":[65],"which":[66],"maximises":[67],"dynamic":[69],"rating":[71],"transformer":[74],"from":[75],"historical":[76],"load,":[77],"temperature,":[78],"metadata":[80],"using":[81],"clustered":[82],"quantile":[83],"regression":[84],"models":[85],"trained":[86],"on":[87,155],"644":[88],"UK":[89],"LV":[90],"transformers.":[91],"Probabilistic":[92],"quantifies":[94],"overheating":[95],"risk":[96,120,154],"through":[98],"prediction":[100],"percentile,":[101,124],"enabling":[102],"risk-informed":[103],"operational":[104,156],"decisions.":[105],"Results":[106],"show":[107],"10--12\\%":[109],"additional":[110],"capacity":[111,151],"gain":[112],"compared":[113],"static":[115],"settings,":[116],"with":[117,146],"hotspot":[118],"temperature":[119,128],"matching":[121],"selected":[123],"including":[125],"under":[126],"realistic":[127],"forecast":[129],"errors.":[130],"These":[131],"results":[132],"demonstrate":[133],"practical":[135],"network":[139],"operators":[140],"take":[142],"advantage":[143],"PDs":[145],"adaptive":[147],"settings":[148],"maximise":[150],"manage":[153],"time":[157],"scales.":[158]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-06-11T09:08:48.828518","created_date":"2026-03-14T00:00:00"}