{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7134065943","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2603.05488","title":"Reasoning Theater: Disentangling Model Beliefs from Chain-of-Thought","display_name":"Reasoning Theater: Disentangling Model Beliefs from Chain-of-Thought","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-03-05","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7134065943","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2603.05488"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"pmh:doi:10.48550/arxiv.2603.05488","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":null,"pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4406922384","display_name":"Open MIND","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Article"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5128261556","display_name":"Siddharth Boppana","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Boppana, Siddharth","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5128269397","display_name":"Annabel Ma","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ma, Annabel","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5128257393","display_name":"Max Loeffler","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Loeffler, Max","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5082174299","display_name":"Rapha\u00ebl Sarfati","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4944-0632"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Sarfati, Raphael","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5128235462","display_name":"Eric Bigelow","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Bigelow, Eric","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5002577142","display_name":"Atticus Geiger","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9170-506X"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Geiger, Atticus","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5128239812","display_name":"Owen Lewis","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Lewis, Owen","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5062612448","display_name":"Jack Merullo","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0005-9673-6809"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Merullo, Jack","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":8,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11883","display_name":"Embodied and Extended Cognition","score":0.31150001287460327,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2805","display_name":"Cognitive Neuroscience"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/28","display_name":"Neuroscience"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/1","display_name":"Life Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11883","display_name":"Embodied and Extended Cognition","score":0.31150001287460327,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2805","display_name":"Cognitive Neuroscience"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/28","display_name":"Neuroscience"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/1","display_name":"Life Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10656","display_name":"Child and Animal Learning Development","score":0.18870000541210175,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3204","display_name":"Developmental and Educational Psychology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/32","display_name":"Psychology"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13219","display_name":"Mind wandering and attention","score":0.03460000082850456,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2805","display_name":"Cognitive Neuroscience"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/28","display_name":"Neuroscience"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/1","display_name":"Life Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/task","display_name":"Task (project management)","score":0.6769999861717224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/performative-utterance","display_name":"Performative utterance","score":0.5825999975204468},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/contrast","display_name":"Contrast (vision)","score":0.4251999855041504},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/deductive-reasoning","display_name":"Deductive reasoning","score":0.30880001187324524},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/task-analysis","display_name":"Task analysis","score":0.288100004196167},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/adaptation","display_name":"Adaptation (eye)","score":0.2752000093460083}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780451532","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q759676","display_name":"Task (project management)","level":2,"score":0.6769999861717224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134141054","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q965415","display_name":"Performative utterance","level":2,"score":0.5825999975204468},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5601000189781189},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C180747234","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23373","display_name":"Cognitive psychology","level":1,"score":0.4580000042915344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776502983","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q690182","display_name":"Contrast (vision)","level":2,"score":0.4251999855041504},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.4108000099658966},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.34130001068115234},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C97364631","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q484284","display_name":"Deductive reasoning","level":2,"score":0.30880001187324524},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C188147891","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q147638","display_name":"Cognitive science","level":1,"score":0.29919999837875366},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C175154964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q380077","display_name":"Task analysis","level":3,"score":0.288100004196167},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139807058","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q352374","display_name":"Adaptation (eye)","level":2,"score":0.2752000093460083},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159403335","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q207857","display_name":"Inflection","level":2,"score":0.27079999446868896},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C26517878","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q228039","display_name":"Key (lock)","level":2,"score":0.2662999927997589},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C169900460","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2200417","display_name":"Cognition","level":2,"score":0.2508000135421753}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:doi:10.48550/arxiv.2603.05488","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":null,"pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4406922384","display_name":"Open MIND","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Article"},{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2603.05488","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2603.05488","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:doi:10.48550/arxiv.2603.05488","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":null,"pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4406922384","display_name":"Open MIND","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/10","score":0.4632938504219055,"display_name":"Reduced inequalities"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"We":[0,80],"provide":[1],"evidence":[2],"of":[3],"performative":[4,149],"chain-of-thought":[5],"(CoT)":[6],"in":[7,16,65,86,102],"reasoning":[8,85,150],"models,":[9],"where":[10,104],"a":[11,38,68],"model":[12],"becomes":[13],"strongly":[14],"confident":[15],"its":[17,26],"final":[18,57],"answer,":[19],"but":[20],"continues":[21],"generating":[22],"tokens":[23,126],"without":[24],"revealing":[25],"internal":[27],"belief.":[28],"Our":[29],"analysis":[30],"compares":[31],"activation":[32],"probing,":[33],"early":[34,123],"forced":[35],"answering,":[36],"and":[37,50,133,151],"CoT":[39,66],"monitor":[40,69],"across":[41],"two":[42],"large":[43,107],"models":[44],"(DeepSeek-R1":[45],"671B":[46],"&":[47],"GPT-OSS":[48],"120B)":[49],"find":[51],"task":[52],"difficulty-specific":[53],"differences:":[54],"The":[55],"model's":[56],"answer":[58],"is":[59,70],"decodable":[60],"from":[61],"activations":[62],"far":[63],"earlier":[64],"than":[67,117],"able":[71],"to":[72,129],"say,":[73],"especially":[74],"for":[75,147],"easy":[76],"recall-based":[77],"MMLU":[78,132],"questions.":[79,90],"contrast":[81],"this":[82],"with":[83,137],"genuine":[84,114],"difficult":[87],"multihop":[88],"GPQA-Diamond":[89,136],"Despite":[91],"this,":[92],"inflection":[93],"points":[94],"(e.g.,":[95],"backtracking,":[96],"'aha'":[97],"moments)":[98],"occur":[99],"almost":[100],"exclusively":[101],"responses":[103],"probes":[105],"show":[106],"belief":[108],"shifts,":[109],"suggesting":[110],"these":[111],"behaviors":[112],"track":[113],"uncertainty":[115],"rather":[116],"learned":[118],"\"reasoning":[119],"theater.\"":[120],"Finally,":[121],"probe-guided":[122],"exit":[124],"reduces":[125],"by":[127],"up":[128],"80%":[130],"on":[131,135],"30%":[134],"similar":[138],"accuracy,":[139],"positioning":[140],"attention":[141],"probing":[142],"as":[143],"an":[144],"efficient":[145],"tool":[146],"detecting":[148],"enabling":[152],"adaptive":[153],"computation.":[154]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-06-11T09:08:48.828518","created_date":"2026-03-07T00:00:00"}