{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7129544936","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2602.14740","title":"AI Arms and Influence: Frontier Models Exhibit Sophisticated Reasoning in Simulated Nuclear Crises","display_name":"AI Arms and Influence: Frontier Models Exhibit Sophisticated Reasoning in Simulated Nuclear Crises","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-02-16","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7129544936","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2602.14740"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2602.14740","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2602.14740","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2602.14740","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5049012721","display_name":"Kenneth Payne","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4688-9285"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Payne, Kenneth","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5049012721"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14350","display_name":"Innovation, Sustainability, Human-Machine Systems","score":0.12880000472068787,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14350","display_name":"Innovation, Sustainability, Human-Machine Systems","score":0.12880000472068787,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11431","display_name":"Action Observation and Synchronization","score":0.06159999966621399,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3207","display_name":"Social Psychology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/32","display_name":"Psychology"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13120","display_name":"Nuclear Issues and Defense","score":0.03139999881386757,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3320","display_name":"Political Science and International Relations"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/credibility","display_name":"Credibility","score":0.6488000154495239},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/frontier","display_name":"Frontier","score":0.609499990940094},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/strategic-thinking","display_name":"Strategic thinking","score":0.4174000024795532},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/fallacy","display_name":"Fallacy","score":0.40630000829696655},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/adversary","display_name":"Adversary","score":0.3790000081062317},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/diplomacy","display_name":"Diplomacy","score":0.34380000829696655},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/heuristics","display_name":"Heuristics","score":0.3400000035762787},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/portfolio","display_name":"Portfolio","score":0.33660000562667847},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sophistication","display_name":"Sophistication","score":0.3361000120639801},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computational-model","display_name":"Computational model","score":0.3303999900817871}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780224610","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1530061","display_name":"Credibility","level":2,"score":0.6488000154495239},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778571376","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1355821","display_name":"Frontier","level":2,"score":0.609499990940094},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C152563557","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7621861","display_name":"Strategic thinking","level":3,"score":0.4174000024795532},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781035248","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186150","display_name":"Fallacy","level":2,"score":0.40630000829696655},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41065033","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2825412","display_name":"Adversary","level":2,"score":0.3790000081062317},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.37869998812675476},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.3700000047683716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111472728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9471","display_name":"Epistemology","level":1,"score":0.35749998688697815},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C557252395","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1889","display_name":"Diplomacy","level":3,"score":0.34380000829696655},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127705205","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5748245","display_name":"Heuristics","level":2,"score":0.3400000035762787},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780821815","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5340806","display_name":"Portfolio","level":2,"score":0.33660000562667847},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C168725872","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q991663","display_name":"Sophistication","level":2,"score":0.3361000120639801},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C66024118","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1122506","display_name":"Computational model","level":2,"score":0.3303999900817871},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C60643870","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1949683","display_name":"Deterrence theory","level":2,"score":0.32710000872612},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C539667460","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2414942","display_name":"Management science","level":1,"score":0.32519999146461487},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C188147891","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q147638","display_name":"Cognitive science","level":1,"score":0.3230000138282776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.32199999690055847},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.31529998779296875},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C528167355","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q258307","display_name":"National security","level":2,"score":0.3100000023841858},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778300220","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q114380","display_name":"Financial crisis","level":2,"score":0.30059999227523804},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C108650721","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1783253","display_name":"Counterfactual thinking","level":2,"score":0.2962999939918518},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780105426","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q331662","display_name":"Disarmament","level":2,"score":0.2946999967098236},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C194110935","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12802","display_name":"Nuclear weapon","level":2,"score":0.29010000824928284},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C192562157","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q316694","display_name":"Rhetorical question","level":2,"score":0.2865000069141388},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780451532","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q759676","display_name":"Task (project management)","level":2,"score":0.2865000069141388},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C48243021","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q932522","display_name":"Strategic planning","level":2,"score":0.27889999747276306},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C108578832","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7621835","display_name":"Strategic financial management","level":3,"score":0.2727999985218048},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.26930001378059387},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C511192102","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5156948","display_name":"Comprehension","level":2,"score":0.26159998774528503},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18762648","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q42213","display_name":"Work (physics)","level":2,"score":0.2599000036716461},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779267917","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q170028","display_name":"Deception","level":2,"score":0.2599000036716461},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2775922551","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7135033","display_name":"Parallels","level":2,"score":0.2590000033378601},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.25870001316070557},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C509929229","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3312693","display_name":"International security","level":2,"score":0.2556000053882599},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C56739046","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q192060","display_name":"Knowledge management","level":1,"score":0.2533999979496002},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11982227","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q201424","display_name":"Nuclear warfare","level":3,"score":0.25279998779296875},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C545171759","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q15141396","display_name":"Nuclear ethics","level":3,"score":0.25040000677108765}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2602.14740","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2602.14740","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2602.14740","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2602.14740","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.8049092292785645,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16","display_name":"Peace, Justice and strong institutions"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Today's":[0],"leading":[1],"AI":[2,99,203,243],"models":[3,69,226],"engage":[4],"in":[5,10,63,80,241],"sophisticated":[6],"behaviour":[7],"when":[8,191],"placed":[9],"strategic":[11,48,119,157,210,233,246],"competition.":[12],"They":[13],"spontaneously":[14],"attempt":[15],"deception,":[16],"signaling":[17],"intentions":[18],"they":[19,25,40],"do":[20,227,229],"not":[21,230],"intend":[22],"to":[23,53,150],"follow;":[24],"demonstrate":[26],"rich":[27],"theory":[28],"of":[29,118,198,220],"mind,":[30],"reasoning":[31,100],"about":[32,127],"adversary":[33],"beliefs":[34],"and":[35,39,114,132,181,228],"anticipating":[36],"their":[37,46],"actions;":[38],"exhibit":[41],"credible":[42],"metacognitive":[43],"self-awareness,":[44],"assessing":[45],"own":[47],"abilities":[49],"before":[50],"deciding":[51],"how":[52,224],"act.":[54],"Here":[55],"we":[56,140],"present":[57],"findings":[58,111],"from":[59],"a":[60,81,206,239],"crisis":[61,108],"simulation":[62,85,204],"which":[64,242],"three":[65],"frontier":[66,225],"large":[67],"language":[68],"(GPT-5.2,":[70],"Claude":[71],"Sonnet":[72],"4,":[73],"Gemini":[74],"3":[75],"Flash)":[76],"play":[77],"opposing":[78],"leaders":[79],"nuclear":[82,145,151,158],"crisis.":[83],"Our":[84,110],"has":[86,103],"direct":[87],"application":[88],"for":[89,124,209,238],"national":[90],"security":[91],"professionals,":[92],"but":[93,212],"also,":[94],"via":[95],"its":[96],"insights":[97],"into":[98],"under":[101,192],"uncertainty,":[102],"applications":[104],"far":[105],"beyond":[106],"international":[107],"decision-making.":[109],"both":[112],"validate":[113],"challenge":[115],"central":[116],"tenets":[117],"theory.":[120],"We":[121,200],"find":[122,142],"support":[123],"Schelling's":[125],"ideas":[126],"commitment,":[128],"Kahn's":[129],"escalation":[130,152],"framework,":[131],"Jervis's":[133],"work":[134],"on":[135],"misperception,":[136],"inter":[137],"alia.":[138],"Yet":[139],"also":[141],"that":[143,156,164,172,182,202],"the":[144],"taboo":[146],"is":[147,235],"no":[148,183],"impediment":[149],"by":[153],"our":[154],"models;":[155],"attack,":[159],"while":[160],"rare,":[161],"does":[162],"occur;":[163],"threats":[165],"more":[166],"often":[167],"provoke":[168],"counter-escalation":[169],"than":[170,178],"compliance;":[171],"high":[173],"mutual":[174],"credibility":[175],"accelerated":[176],"rather":[177],"deterred":[179],"conflict;":[180],"model":[184],"ever":[185],"chose":[186],"accommodation":[187],"or":[188],"withdrawal":[189],"even":[190],"acute":[193],"pressure,":[194],"only":[195,213],"reduced":[196],"levels":[197],"violence.":[199],"argue":[201],"represents":[205],"powerful":[207],"tool":[208],"analysis,":[211],"if":[214],"properly":[215],"calibrated":[216],"against":[217],"known":[218],"patterns":[219],"human":[221,232],"reasoning.":[222],"Understanding":[223],"imitate":[231],"logic":[234],"essential":[236],"preparation":[237],"world":[240],"increasingly":[244],"shapes":[245],"outcomes.":[247]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-02-18T06:25:47.457606","created_date":"2026-02-18T00:00:00"}