{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7128372175","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2602.06791","title":"Rare Event Analysis of Large Language Models","display_name":"Rare Event Analysis of Large Language Models","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-02-06","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7128372175","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2602.06791"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"pmh:doi:10.48550/arxiv.2602.06791","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":null,"pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4406922384","display_name":"Open MIND","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Article"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5125429457","display_name":"Jake McAllister Dorman","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Dorman, Jake McAllister","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5125395064","display_name":"Edward Gillman","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Gillman, Edward","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5011036793","display_name":"D. C. Rose","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5390-8635"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Rose, Dominic C.","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5086280406","display_name":"Jamie F. Mair","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1694-8694"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mair, Jamie F.","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5125404527","display_name":"Juan P. Garrahan","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Garrahan, Juan P.","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":5,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5125429457"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10028","display_name":"Topic Modeling","score":0.23559999465942383,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10028","display_name":"Topic Modeling","score":0.23559999465942383,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10181","display_name":"Natural Language Processing Techniques","score":0.15299999713897705,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12090","display_name":"Language and cultural evolution","score":0.09529999643564224,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3316","display_name":"Cultural Studies"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/rare-events","display_name":"Rare events","score":0.7455999851226807},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/generality","display_name":"Generality","score":0.7020000219345093},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/event","display_name":"Event (particle physics)","score":0.6212000250816345},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-logic","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","score":0.5979999899864197},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/inference","display_name":"Inference","score":0.5616000294685364},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/language-model","display_name":"Language model","score":0.5555999875068665},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/scale","display_name":"Scale (ratio)","score":0.429500013589859},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistical-model","display_name":"Statistical model","score":0.42719998955726624}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.7519999742507935},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777317252","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q18393516","display_name":"Rare events","level":2,"score":0.7455999851226807},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780767217","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5532421","display_name":"Generality","level":2,"score":0.7020000219345093},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779662365","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5416694","display_name":"Event (particle physics)","level":2,"score":0.6212000250816345},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.5979999899864197},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776214188","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q408386","display_name":"Inference","level":2,"score":0.5616000294685364},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C137293760","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3621696","display_name":"Language model","level":2,"score":0.5555999875068665},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.4456999897956848},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778755073","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q10858537","display_name":"Scale (ratio)","level":2,"score":0.429500013589859},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C114289077","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3284399","display_name":"Statistical model","level":2,"score":0.42719998955726624},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C143017306","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3318133","display_name":"Probabilistic relevance model","level":4,"score":0.4169999957084656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204321447","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q30642","display_name":"Natural language processing","level":1,"score":0.40529999136924744},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.3393000066280365},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2987896495","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5416716","display_name":"Event data","level":3,"score":0.3314000070095062},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.3231000006198883},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C141218545","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7521336","display_name":"Simulation language","level":2,"score":0.288100004196167},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C179603123","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1941921","display_name":"Modeling language","level":3,"score":0.2806999981403351},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C184337299","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1437428","display_name":"Semantics (computer science)","level":2,"score":0.2793999910354614},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C67186912","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q367664","display_name":"Data modeling","level":2,"score":0.27140000462532043},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134261354","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q938438","display_name":"Statistical inference","level":2,"score":0.2694999873638153},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C195324797","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q33742","display_name":"Natural language","level":2,"score":0.2671999931335449},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C160234255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812535","display_name":"Bayesian inference","level":3,"score":0.26019999384880066},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C96250715","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q965330","display_name":"Estimation","level":2,"score":0.2587999999523163},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149441793","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q200726","display_name":"Probability distribution","level":2,"score":0.2513999938964844}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:doi:10.48550/arxiv.2602.06791","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":null,"pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4406922384","display_name":"Open MIND","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Article"},{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2602.06791","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2602.06791","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:doi:10.48550/arxiv.2602.06791","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":null,"pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4406922384","display_name":"Open MIND","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Being":[0],"probabilistic":[1],"models,":[2],"during":[3,42],"inference":[4],"large":[5],"language":[6],"models":[7,94],"(LLMs)":[8],"display":[9],"rare":[10,24,62],"events:":[11],"behaviour":[12],"that":[13,38],"is":[14],"far":[15],"from":[16],"typical":[17],"but":[18,30],"highly":[19],"significant.":[20],"By":[21],"definition":[22],"all":[23],"events":[25,39,63],"are":[26,44],"hard":[27],"to":[28,46,92],"see,":[29],"the":[31,58,98,101],"enormous":[32],"scale":[33],"of":[34,61,100],"LLM":[35],"usage":[36],"means":[37],"completely":[40],"unobserved":[41],"development":[43],"likely":[45],"become":[47],"prominent":[48],"in":[49,64],"deployment.":[50],"Here":[51],"we":[52,82],"present":[53],"an":[54],"end-to-end":[55],"framework":[56],"for":[57],"systematic":[59],"analysis":[60],"LLMs.":[65],"We":[66,87],"provide":[67],"a":[68],"practical":[69],"implementation":[70],"spanning":[71],"theory,":[72],"efficient":[73],"generation":[74],"strategies,":[75],"probability":[76],"estimation":[77],"and":[78,90,95,103],"error":[79],"analysis,":[80],"which":[81],"illustrate":[83],"with":[84],"concrete":[85],"examples.":[86],"outline":[88],"extensions":[89],"applications":[91],"other":[93],"contexts,":[96],"highlighting":[97],"generality":[99],"concepts":[102],"techniques":[104],"presented":[105],"here.":[106]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-04-04T16:13:02.066488","created_date":"2026-02-10T00:00:00"}
