{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7124434406","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2601.10137","title":"Step-by-Step Causality: Transparent Causal Discovery with Multi-Agent Tree-Query and Adversarial Confidence Estimation","display_name":"Step-by-Step Causality: Transparent Causal Discovery with Multi-Agent Tree-Query and Adversarial Confidence Estimation","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-01-15","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7124434406","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2601.10137"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2601.10137","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2601.10137","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2601.10137","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5123223622","display_name":"Ziyi Ding","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Ding, Ziyi","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5123175392","display_name":"Chenfei Ye-Hao","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ye-Hao, Chenfei","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5123195333","display_name":"Zheyuan Wang","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Wang, Zheyuan","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5123237522","display_name":"Xiao-Ping Zhang","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Zhang, Xiao-Ping","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5123223622"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11303","display_name":"Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference","score":0.9631999731063843,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11303","display_name":"Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference","score":0.9631999731063843,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12026","display_name":"Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)","score":0.005900000222027302,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11010","display_name":"Logic, Reasoning, and Knowledge","score":0.004900000058114529,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/identifiability","display_name":"Identifiability","score":0.7627999782562256},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/identifiability","display_name":"Identifiability","score":0.7627999782562256},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/complement","display_name":"Complement (music)","score":0.6898000240325928},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/complement","display_name":"Complement (music)","score":0.6898000240325928},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/pairwise-comparison","display_name":"Pairwise comparison","score":0.633400022983551},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/pairwise-comparison","display_name":"Pairwise comparison","score":0.633400022983551},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/causal-model","display_name":"Causal model","score":0.5940999984741211},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/causal-model","display_name":"Causal model","score":0.5940999984741211},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/causal-inference","display_name":"Causal inference","score":0.5803999900817871},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/causal-inference","display_name":"Causal inference","score":0.5803999900817871},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/causality","display_name":"Causality (physics)","score":0.44209998846054077}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C122770356","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1656753","display_name":"Identifiability","level":2,"score":0.7627999782562256},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C122770356","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1656753","display_name":"Identifiability","level":2,"score":0.7627999782562256},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112313634","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7886648","display_name":"Complement (music)","level":5,"score":0.6898000240325928},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112313634","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7886648","display_name":"Complement (music)","level":5,"score":0.6898000240325928},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C184898388","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1435712","display_name":"Pairwise comparison","level":2,"score":0.633400022983551},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C184898388","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1435712","display_name":"Pairwise comparison","level":2,"score":0.633400022983551},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11671645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5054567","display_name":"Causal model","level":2,"score":0.5940999984741211},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11671645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5054567","display_name":"Causal model","level":2,"score":0.5940999984741211},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C158600405","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5054566","display_name":"Causal inference","level":2,"score":0.5803999900817871},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C158600405","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5054566","display_name":"Causal inference","level":2,"score":0.5803999900817871},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5235999822616577},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5235999822616577},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C64357122","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1149766","display_name":"Causality (physics)","level":2,"score":0.44209998846054077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C64357122","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1149766","display_name":"Causality (physics)","level":2,"score":0.44209998846054077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.4375999867916107},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.4375999867916107},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177769412","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q278090","display_name":"Prior probability","level":3,"score":0.4372999966144562},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177769412","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q278090","display_name":"Prior probability","level":3,"score":0.4372999966144562},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.40630000829696655},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.40630000829696655},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C94966114","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q29256","display_name":"Black box","level":2,"score":0.3849000036716461},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C94966114","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q29256","display_name":"Black box","level":2,"score":0.3849000036716461},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779662365","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5416694","display_name":"Event (particle physics)","level":2,"score":0.37599998712539673},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779662365","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5416694","display_name":"Event (particle physics)","level":2,"score":0.37599998712539673},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778112365","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3511065","display_name":"Sequence (biology)","level":2,"score":0.3707999885082245},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778112365","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3511065","display_name":"Sequence (biology)","level":2,"score":0.3707999885082245},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163504300","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2364925","display_name":"Causal structure","level":2,"score":0.3635999858379364},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163504300","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2364925","display_name":"Causal structure","level":2,"score":0.3635999858379364},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.35280001163482666},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.35280001163482666},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.34940001368522644},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.34940001368522644},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781045450","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q254569","display_name":"Backdoor","level":2,"score":0.34439998865127563},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781045450","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q254569","display_name":"Backdoor","level":2,"score":0.34439998865127563},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33724603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812540","display_name":"Bayesian network","level":2,"score":0.3343000113964081},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33724603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812540","display_name":"Bayesian network","level":2,"score":0.3343000113964081},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C37736160","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1801315","display_name":"Adversarial system","level":2,"score":0.32670000195503235},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C37736160","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1801315","display_name":"Adversarial system","level":2,"score":0.32670000195503235},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.31349998712539673},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.31349998712539673}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2601.10137","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2601.10137","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2601.10137","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2601.10137","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Causal":[0],"discovery":[1,44],"aims":[2],"to":[3,45,117],"recover":[4],"``what":[5],"causes":[6],"what'',":[7],"but":[8],"classical":[9],"constraint-based":[10],"methods":[11],"(e.g.,":[12],"PC,":[13],"FCI)":[14],"suffer":[15],"from":[16,82,122],"error":[17],"propagation,":[18],"and":[19,57,86,98,106],"recent":[20],"LLM-based":[21],"causal":[22,43,58,88,109,120,129],"oracles":[23],"often":[24],"behave":[25],"as":[26],"opaque,":[27],"confidence-free":[28],"black":[29],"boxes.":[30],"This":[31],"paper":[32],"introduces":[33],"Tree-Query,":[34],"a":[35,46,99,114],"tree-structured,":[36],"multi-expert":[37],"LLM":[38,96],"framework":[39],"that":[40,124],"reduces":[41],"pairwise":[42,76],"short":[47],"sequence":[48],"of":[49,74],"queries":[50],"about":[51],"backdoor":[52],"paths,":[53],"(in)dependence,":[54],"latent":[55],"confounding,":[56],"direction,":[59],"yielding":[60],"interpretable":[61],"judgments":[62],"with":[63],"robustness-aware":[64],"confidence":[65],"scores.":[66],"Theoretical":[67],"guarantees":[68],"are":[69],"provided":[70],"for":[71],"asymptotic":[72],"identifiability":[73],"four":[75],"relations.":[77],"On":[78],"data-free":[79,119],"benchmarks":[80],"derived":[81],"Mooij":[83],"et":[84],"al.":[85],"UCI":[87],"graphs,":[89],"Tree-Query":[90,111],"improves":[91],"structural":[92],"metrics":[93],"over":[94],"direct":[95],"baselines,":[97],"diet--weight":[100],"case":[101],"study":[102],"illustrates":[103],"confounder":[104],"screening":[105],"stable,":[107],"high-confidence":[108],"conclusions.":[110],"thus":[112],"offers":[113],"principled":[115],"way":[116],"obtain":[118],"priors":[121],"LLMs":[123],"can":[125],"complement":[126],"downstream":[127],"data-driven":[128],"discovery.":[130],"Code":[131],"is":[132],"available":[133],"at":[134],"https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Repo-9B3E-4F96.":[135]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-01-17T23:15:25.596738","created_date":"2026-01-17T00:00:00"}
