{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7117966065","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2512.24661","title":"Do Large Language Models Know What They Are Capable Of?","display_name":"Do Large Language Models Know What They Are Capable Of?","publication_year":2025,"publication_date":"2025-12-31","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7117966065","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2512.24661"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2512.24661","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2512.24661","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2512.24661","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5121835052","display_name":"Casey O. Barkan","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Barkan, Casey O.","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5032649426","display_name":"Sid Black","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Black, Sid","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5121795157","display_name":"Oliver Sourbut","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Sourbut, Oliver","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5121835052"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11636","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare and Education","score":0.4036000072956085,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2718","display_name":"Health Informatics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11636","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare and Education","score":0.4036000072956085,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2718","display_name":"Health Informatics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12026","display_name":"Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)","score":0.16110000014305115,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10883","display_name":"Ethics and Social Impacts of AI","score":0.07559999823570251,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3311","display_name":"Safety Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/overconfidence-effect","display_name":"Overconfidence effect","score":0.9351999759674072},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/task","display_name":"Task (project management)","score":0.6417999863624573},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/rationality","display_name":"Rationality","score":0.39730000495910645},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/frontier","display_name":"Frontier","score":0.296099990606308},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/behavioral-economics","display_name":"Behavioral economics","score":0.2831000089645386}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C51110983","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q16503490","display_name":"Overconfidence effect","level":2,"score":0.9351999759674072},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780451532","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q759676","display_name":"Task (project management)","level":2,"score":0.6417999863624573},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C180747234","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23373","display_name":"Cognitive psychology","level":1,"score":0.4528000056743622},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.40470001101493835},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C201717286","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q938185","display_name":"Rationality","level":2,"score":0.39730000495910645},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77805123","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q161272","display_name":"Social psychology","level":1,"score":0.32519999146461487},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.3111000061035156},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162118730","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128453","display_name":"Actuarial science","level":1,"score":0.31060001254081726},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778571376","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1355821","display_name":"Frontier","level":2,"score":0.296099990606308},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.29100000858306885},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C109574028","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q647525","display_name":"Behavioral economics","level":2,"score":0.2831000089645386},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C168725872","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q991663","display_name":"Sophistication","level":2,"score":0.2773999869823456},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780791683","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q846785","display_name":"Action (physics)","level":2,"score":0.26170000433921814},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C118084267","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q26110","display_name":"Positive economics","level":1,"score":0.257099986076355},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C64357122","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1149766","display_name":"Causality (physics)","level":2,"score":0.2529999911785126}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2512.24661","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2512.24661","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2512.24661","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2512.24661","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.6950966119766235,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/10","display_name":"Reduced inequalities"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"We":[0,28,69,182],"investigate":[1,30],"whether":[2,9,18,31,43],"large":[3],"language":[4],"models":[5,85],"(LLMs)":[6],"can":[7,33],"predict":[8,62],"they":[10,23,103],"will":[11],"succeed":[12],"on":[13],"a":[14,46,89],"given":[15,149],"task":[16,47],"and":[17,73,108,195],"their":[19,63,130,150,156,174,179,190],"predictions":[20],"improve":[21],"as":[22,102],"progress":[24,104],"through":[25,105],"multi-step":[26,92],"tasks.":[27],"also":[29],"LLMs":[32,55,75,100,110,128],"learn":[34],"from":[35],"in-context":[36,120],"experiences":[37,121],"to":[38,44,113,133],"make":[39],"better":[40],"decisions":[41,145],"about":[42],"pursue":[45],"in":[48,160],"scenarios":[49],"where":[50],"failure":[51],"is":[52],"costly.":[53],"All":[54],"we":[56],"tested":[57],"are":[58,146,171],"overconfident,":[59],"but":[60,125],"most":[61],"success":[64],"with":[65],"better-than-random":[66],"discriminatory":[67,81],"power.":[68],"find":[70],"that":[71,167],"newer":[72],"larger":[74],"generally":[76],"do":[77,86,140],"not":[78,126],"have":[79],"greater":[80],"power,":[82],"though":[83],"Claude":[84],"show":[87],"such":[88],"trend.":[90],"On":[91],"agentic":[93],"tasks,":[94,107],"the":[95,106,184],"overconfidence":[96,131],"of":[97,122,153,176,178,186,189],"several":[98],"frontier":[99],"worsens":[101],"reasoning":[109],"perform":[111],"comparably":[112],"or":[114],"worse":[115],"than":[116],"non-reasoning":[117],"LLMs.":[118],"With":[119],"failure,":[123],"some":[124],"all":[127,143],"reduce":[129],"leading":[132],"significantly":[134],"improved":[135],"decision":[136,162],"making,":[137],"while":[138],"others":[139],"not.":[141],"Interestingly,":[142],"LLMs'":[144,187],"approximately":[147],"rational":[148],"estimated":[151],"probabilities":[152],"success,":[154],"yet":[155],"overly-optimistic":[157],"estimates":[158],"result":[159],"poor":[161],"making.":[163],"These":[164],"results":[165],"suggest":[166],"current":[168],"LLM":[169],"agents":[170],"hindered":[172],"by":[173],"lack":[175],"awareness":[177,188],"own":[180],"capabilities.":[181],"discuss":[183],"implications":[185],"capabilities":[191],"for":[192],"AI":[193],"misuse":[194],"misalignment":[196],"risks.":[197]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-01-02T23:15:32.796280","created_date":"2026-01-02T00:00:00"}