{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4417446086","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2512.11909","title":"Causal Strengths and Leaky Beliefs: Interpreting LLM Reasoning via Noisy-OR Causal Bayes Nets","display_name":"Causal Strengths and Leaky Beliefs: Interpreting LLM Reasoning via Noisy-OR Causal Bayes Nets","publication_year":2025,"publication_date":"2025-12-10","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4417446086","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2512.11909"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2512.11909","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/abs/2512.11909","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2512.11909","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4393918464","display_name":"ArXiv.org","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["arxiv","datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2512.11909","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5133361500","display_name":"Hanna Dettki","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0006-7237-6121"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Dettki, Hanna","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5133361500"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11303","display_name":"Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference","score":0.6822999715805054,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11303","display_name":"Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference","score":0.6822999715805054,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12026","display_name":"Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)","score":0.06129999831318855,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11010","display_name":"Logic, Reasoning, and Knowledge","score":0.04899999871850014,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/causal-reasoning","display_name":"Causal reasoning","score":0.7283999919891357},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayes-theorem","display_name":"Bayes' theorem","score":0.6171000003814697},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/task","display_name":"Task (project management)","score":0.5149999856948853},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/causal-model","display_name":"Causal model","score":0.507099986076355},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/causality","display_name":"Causality (physics)","score":0.4383000135421753},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/causation","display_name":"Causation","score":0.4242999851703644},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-network","display_name":"Bayesian network","score":0.420199990272522},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/causal-inference","display_name":"Causal inference","score":0.42010000348091125}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C115086926","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17004651","display_name":"Causal reasoning","level":3,"score":0.7283999919891357},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C207201462","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q182505","display_name":"Bayes' theorem","level":3,"score":0.6171000003814697},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780451532","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q759676","display_name":"Task (project management)","level":2,"score":0.5149999856948853},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.5091000199317932},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C180747234","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23373","display_name":"Cognitive psychology","level":1,"score":0.5073000192642212},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11671645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5054567","display_name":"Causal model","level":2,"score":0.507099986076355},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.49880000948905945},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C64357122","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1149766","display_name":"Causality (physics)","level":2,"score":0.4383000135421753},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166151441","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4923601","display_name":"Causation","level":2,"score":0.4242999851703644},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33724603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812540","display_name":"Bayesian network","level":2,"score":0.420199990272522},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C158600405","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5054566","display_name":"Causal inference","level":2,"score":0.42010000348091125},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C169900460","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2200417","display_name":"Cognition","level":2,"score":0.4129999876022339},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.40299999713897705},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C36964233","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7920942","display_name":"Verbal reasoning","level":3,"score":0.39100000262260437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C103057564","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4751139","display_name":"Analytic reasoning","level":3,"score":0.351500004529953},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132525143","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q141488","display_name":"Graph","level":2,"score":0.31769999861717224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.3109000027179718},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.3041999936103821},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C188147891","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q147638","display_name":"Cognitive science","level":1,"score":0.2987000048160553},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165064840","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1321061","display_name":"Matching (statistics)","level":2,"score":0.2827000021934509},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77805123","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q161272","display_name":"Social psychology","level":1,"score":0.27149999141693115},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C175154964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q380077","display_name":"Task analysis","level":3,"score":0.2632000148296356},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204321447","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q30642","display_name":"Natural language processing","level":1,"score":0.25589999556541443},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C183521366","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7256422","display_name":"Psychology of reasoning","level":4,"score":0.2524999976158142}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2512.11909","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/abs/2512.11909","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2512.11909","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4393918464","display_name":"ArXiv.org","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2512.11909","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2512.11909","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2512.11909","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/abs/2512.11909","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2512.11909","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4393918464","display_name":"ArXiv.org","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0],"nature":[1],"of":[2,32,55,122,129],"intelligence":[3,33],"in":[4,41],"both":[5],"humans":[6,44,69,79],"and":[7,43,59,78,127,172],"machines":[8],"is":[9,15,25],"a":[10,29,51,108,141,154,166],"longstanding":[11],"question.":[12],"While":[13],"there":[14],"no":[16],"universally":[17],"accepted":[18],"definition,":[19],"the":[20,46,71,83,160],"ability":[21],"to":[22],"reason":[23,80],"causally":[24],"often":[26],"regarded":[27],"as":[28,117],"pivotal":[30],"aspect":[31],"(Lake":[34],"et":[35],"al.,":[36],"2017).":[37],"Evaluating":[38],"causal":[39,104,144,169],"reasoning":[40,73,91],"LLMs":[42,66,77,99],"on":[45,100],"same":[47],"tasks":[48,105],"provides":[49],"hence":[50],"more":[52],"comprehensive":[53],"understanding":[54],"their":[56],"respective":[57],"strengths":[58],"weaknesses.":[60],"Our":[61],"study":[62],"asks:":[63],"(Q1)":[64],"Are":[65],"aligned":[67],"with":[68,140],"given":[70],"\\emph{same}":[72],"tasks?":[74],"(Q2)":[75],"Do":[76,87],"consistently":[81],"at":[82],"task":[84],"level?":[85],"(Q3)":[86],"they":[88],"have":[89],"distinct":[90],"signatures?":[92],"We":[93],"answer":[94],"these":[95],"by":[96,107],"evaluating":[97],"20+":[98],"eleven":[101],"semantically":[102],"meaningful":[103],"formalized":[106],"collider":[109],"graph":[110],"($C_1\\!\\to\\!E\\!\\leftarrow\\!C_2$":[111],")":[112],"under":[113],"\\emph{Direct}":[114],"(one-shot":[115],"number":[116],"response":[118],"=":[119],"probability":[120],"judgment":[121],"query":[123],"node":[124],"being":[125],"one":[126],"\\emph{Chain":[128],"Thought}":[130],"(CoT;":[131],"think":[132],"first,":[133],"then":[134],"provide":[135],"answer).":[136],"Judgments":[137],"are":[138],"modeled":[139],"leaky":[142],"noisy-OR":[143],"Bayes":[145],"net":[146],"(CBN)":[147],"whose":[148],"parameters":[149],"$\u03b8=(b,m_1,m_2,p(C))":[150],"\\in":[151],"[0,1]$":[152],"include":[153],"shared":[155],"prior":[156],"$p(C)$;":[157],"we":[158],"select":[159],"winning":[161],"model":[162],"via":[163],"AIC":[164],"between":[165],"3-parameter":[167],"symmetric":[168],"strength":[170],"($m_1{=}m_2$)":[171],"4-parameter":[173],"asymmetric":[174],"($m_1{\\neq}m_2$)":[175],"variant.":[176]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-05-04T08:30:34.212998","created_date":"2025-12-17T00:00:00"}
