{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4391631332","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2402.03284","title":"Deal, or no deal (or who knows)? Forecasting Uncertainty in Conversations using Large Language Models","display_name":"Deal, or no deal (or who knows)? Forecasting Uncertainty in Conversations using Large Language Models","publication_year":2024,"publication_date":"2024-02-05","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4391631332","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2402.03284"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2402.03284","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/abs/2402.03284","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2402.03284","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"text"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["arxiv","datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2402.03284","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5073469194","display_name":"Anthony Sicilia","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Sicilia, Anthony","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5100330223","display_name":"Hyunwoo Kim","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4810-6333"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Kim, Hyunwoo","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5007169600","display_name":"Khyathi Raghavi Chandu","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Chandu, Khyathi Raghavi","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5025559955","display_name":"Malihe Alikhani","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1315-2228"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Alikhani, Malihe","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5043614405","display_name":"Jack Hessel","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4012-8979"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Hessel, Jack","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":5,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5073469194"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10028","display_name":"Topic Modeling","score":0.9035999774932861,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10028","display_name":"Topic Modeling","score":0.9035999774932861,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.5483414530754089},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.36868757009506226},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/natural-language-processing","display_name":"Natural language processing","score":0.36571061611175537},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.33452320098876953},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economics","display_name":"Economics","score":0.2372397780418396}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5483414530754089},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.36868757009506226},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204321447","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q30642","display_name":"Natural language processing","level":1,"score":0.36571061611175537},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.33452320098876953},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.2372397780418396}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2402.03284","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/abs/2402.03284","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2402.03284","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"text"},{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2402.03284","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2402.03284","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2402.03284","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/abs/2402.03284","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2402.03284","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320317052","display_name":"Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence","ror":"https://ror.org/05w520734"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4391631332.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4391631332.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2748952813","https://openalex.org/W2390279801","https://openalex.org/W2358668433","https://openalex.org/W2376932109","https://openalex.org/W2001405890","https://openalex.org/W2382290278","https://openalex.org/W2478288626","https://openalex.org/W2350741829","https://openalex.org/W2530322880","https://openalex.org/W3204019825"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Effective":[0],"interlocutors":[1],"account":[2],"for":[3],"the":[4,14,21,43],"uncertain":[5],"goals,":[6],"beliefs,":[7],"and":[8,79,83,109],"emotions":[9],"of":[10,23,42,49,90],"others.":[11],"But":[12],"even":[13],"best":[15],"human":[16],"conversationalist":[17],"cannot":[18],"perfectly":[19],"anticipate":[20],"trajectory":[22],"a":[24],"dialogue.":[25],"How":[26],"well":[27],"can":[28,115],"language":[29,70],"models":[30,71,119,124],"represent":[31,73],"inherent":[32],"uncertainty":[33,75],"in":[34,68],"conversations?":[35],"We":[36,64],"propose":[37,84],"FortUne":[38],"Dial,":[39],"an":[40,110],"expansion":[41],"long-standing":[44],"\"conversation":[45],"forecasting\"":[46],"task:":[47],"instead":[48],"just":[50],"accuracy,":[51],"evaluation":[52],"is":[53],"conducted":[54],"with":[55,122],"uncertainty-aware":[56],"metrics,":[57],"effectively":[58],"enabling":[59],"abstention":[60],"on":[61,94],"individual":[62],"instances.":[63],"study":[65],"two":[66],"ways":[67],"which":[69],"potentially":[72],"outcome":[74],"(internally,":[76],"using":[77,81],"scores":[78],"directly,":[80],"tokens)":[82],"fine-tuning":[85,103],"strategies":[86,104],"to":[87,120],"improve":[88],"calibration":[89],"both":[91],"representations.":[92],"Experiments":[93],"eight":[95],"difficult":[96],"negotiation":[97],"corpora":[98],"demonstrate":[99],"that":[100],"our":[101],"proposed":[102],"(a":[105],"traditional":[106],"supervision":[107],"strategy":[108],"off-policy":[111],"reinforcement":[112],"learning":[113],"strategy)":[114],"calibrate":[116],"smaller":[117],"open-source":[118],"compete":[121],"pre-trained":[123],"10x":[125],"their":[126],"size.":[127]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-03-10T16:38:18.471706","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}