{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4389501099","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2312.04110","title":"Small Area Estimation of Case Growths for Timely COVID-19 Outbreak Detection","display_name":"Small Area Estimation of Case Growths for Timely COVID-19 Outbreak Detection","publication_year":2023,"publication_date":"2023-12-07","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4389501099","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2312.04110"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2312.04110","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/abs/2312.04110","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2312.04110","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"text"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["arxiv","datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2312.04110","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5049064902","display_name":"Zhaowei She","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4190-7974"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"She, Zhaowei","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5100384113","display_name":"Zilong Wang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8950-6440"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Wang, Zilong","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5038177258","display_name":"Jagpreet Chhatwal","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8741-4430"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Chhatwal, Jagpreet","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5040123651","display_name":"Turgay Ayer","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8720-0280"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ayer, Turgay","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":1,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9997000098228455,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9997000098228455,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11819","display_name":"Data-Driven Disease Surveillance","score":0.965399980545044,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2713","display_name":"Epidemiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12492","display_name":"Zoonotic diseases and public health","score":0.9193000197410583,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2739","display_name":"Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/outbreak","display_name":"Outbreak","score":0.8000466823577881},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/coronavirus-disease-2019","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","score":0.7168437242507935},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/estimation","display_name":"Estimation","score":0.6450371742248535},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.5730924010276794},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.45802128314971924},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/pandemic","display_name":"Pandemic","score":0.4392143189907074},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/transfer","display_name":"Transfer (computing)","score":0.4216722846031189},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.3721134066581726},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.18470501899719238},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/engineering","display_name":"Engineering","score":0.13050955533981323},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/medicine","display_name":"Medicine","score":0.1071026623249054},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/infectious-disease","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","score":0.09786352515220642},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/virology","display_name":"Virology","score":0.0881182849407196},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/disease","display_name":"Disease","score":0.08327117562294006}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C116675565","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3241045","display_name":"Outbreak","level":2,"score":0.8000466823577881},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3008058167","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q84263196","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","level":4,"score":0.7168437242507935},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C96250715","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q965330","display_name":"Estimation","level":2,"score":0.6450371742248535},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5730924010276794},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.45802128314971924},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C89623803","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12184","display_name":"Pandemic","level":5,"score":0.4392143189907074},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776175482","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1195816","display_name":"Transfer (computing)","level":2,"score":0.4216722846031189},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.3721134066581726},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.18470501899719238},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.13050955533981323},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.1071026623249054},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C524204448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q788926","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","level":3,"score":0.09786352515220642},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159047783","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7215","display_name":"Virology","level":1,"score":0.0881182849407196},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779134260","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12136","display_name":"Disease","level":2,"score":0.08327117562294006},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C142724271","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7208","display_name":"Pathology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C173608175","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q232661","display_name":"Parallel computing","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C201995342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q682496","display_name":"Systems engineering","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2312.04110","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/abs/2312.04110","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2312.04110","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2312.04110","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.04110","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2312.04110","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2312.04110","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2312.04110","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2312.04110","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/abs/2312.04110","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2312.04110","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.5600000023841858,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","display_name":"Good health and well-being"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4389501099.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4389501099.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2373635223","https://openalex.org/W2412355096","https://openalex.org/W1990012352","https://openalex.org/W2431766951","https://openalex.org/W4385969441","https://openalex.org/W127458931","https://openalex.org/W2362266265","https://openalex.org/W3028429280","https://openalex.org/W2557977292","https://openalex.org/W3096227606"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0,22],"COVID-19":[1,23],"pandemic":[2],"has":[3],"exerted":[4],"a":[5,16,29,76,116,181,227],"profound":[6],"impact":[7],"on":[8,19,143,185],"the":[9,43,60,93,110,150,190,210],"global":[10],"economy":[11],"and":[12,35,40,54,126,146,194,218],"continues":[13],"to":[14,33,205,209],"exact":[15],"significant":[17],"toll":[18],"human":[20],"lives.":[21],"case":[24,157,182,187],"growth":[25,51,111,158,174],"rate":[26,52,112,175],"stands":[27],"as":[28],"key":[30],"epidemiological":[31],"parameter":[32],"estimate":[34,156],"monitor":[36],"for":[37,88,160],"effective":[38,90,121],"detection":[39,57,231],"containment":[41],"of":[42,45,92,192,202,216],"resurgence":[44],"outbreaks.":[46],"A":[47],"fundamental":[48],"challenge":[49],"in":[50],"estimation":[53,113,176],"hence":[55],"outbreak":[56,186,230],"is":[58],"balancing":[59],"accuracy-speed":[61,100],"tradeoff,":[62],"where":[63],"accuracy":[64],"typically":[65],"degrades":[66],"with":[67,162],"shorter":[68],"fitting":[69,139],"windows.":[70],"In":[71],"this":[72,99],"paper,":[73],"we":[74,81,103,179,225],"provide":[75],"transfer":[77,122],"learning":[78,123],"framework,":[79],"which":[80,119],"call":[82],"Transfer":[83],"Learning":[84],"Random":[85],"Forest":[86],"(TLRF),":[87],"an":[89,105],"implementation":[91],"random":[94,129],"forests":[95],"algorithm":[96],"that":[97,108,170,196,233],"balances":[98],"tradeoff.":[101],"Specifically,":[102],"develop":[104],"identification":[106],"strategy":[107],"converts":[109],"problem":[114],"into":[115],"regression":[117],"task,":[118],"enables":[120],"across":[124,246],"space":[125],"time":[127],"through":[128,136,238],"forests'":[130],"adaptive":[131],"weighting":[132],"mechanism.":[133],"As":[134],"such,":[135],"adaptively":[137],"choosing":[138],"window":[140],"sizes":[141],"based":[142,184],"relevant":[144],"day-level":[145],"county-level":[147],"features":[148],"affecting":[149],"disease":[151],"spread,":[152],"TLRF":[153,171,197],"can":[154],"accurately":[155],"rates":[159],"counties":[161],"small":[163],"sample":[164],"sizes.":[165],"Out-of-sample":[166],"prediction":[167],"analysis":[168],"shows":[169],"outperforms":[172],"established":[173],"methods.":[177],"Furthermore,":[178],"conducted":[180],"study":[183],"data":[188],"from":[189,235,244],"state":[191],"Colorado":[193],"showed":[195],"could":[198],"improve":[199],"timely":[200],"detections":[201],"outbreaks":[203],"up":[204],"224%":[206],"when":[207],"compared":[208],"decisions":[211],"made":[212],"by":[213],"Colorado's":[214],"Department":[215],"Health":[217],"Environment":[219],"(CDPHE).":[220],"To":[221],"demonstrate":[222],"practical":[223],"implementation,":[224],"developed":[226],"publicly":[228],"available":[229],"tool":[232],"operated":[234],"September":[236],"2020":[237],"March":[239],"2023,":[240],"receiving":[241],"substantial":[242],"attention":[243],"policymakers":[245],"all":[247],"50":[248],"states.":[249]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-07-01T06:00:48.157686","created_date":"2023-12-09T00:00:00"}