{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2531326175","doi":"https://doi.org/10.4018/ijkbo.2017010103","title":"Towards a New Model for Causal Reasoning in Expert Systems","display_name":"Towards a New Model for Causal Reasoning in Expert Systems","publication_year":2016,"publication_date":"2016-10-12","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2531326175","doi":"https://doi.org/10.4018/ijkbo.2017010103","mag":"2531326175"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.4018/ijkbo.2017010103","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.4018/ijkbo.2017010103","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210171617","display_name":"International Journal of Knowledge-Based Organizations","issn_l":"2155-6393","issn":["2155-6393","2155-6407"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320424","host_organization_name":"IGI Global","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320424"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["IGI Global"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Knowledge-Based Organizations","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5085397764","display_name":"Melissa Wright","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1011-4795"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I16277215","display_name":"University of Houston - Downtown","ror":"https://ror.org/05mj6fy81","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I16277215"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"M. Keith Wright","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Houston Downtown, Houston, TX, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Houston Downtown, Houston, TX, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I16277215"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5085397764"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I16277215"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.4331,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":1,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.79480007,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":90,"max":94},"biblio":{"volume":"7","issue":"1","first_page":"32","last_page":"63"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11303","display_name":"Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference","score":0.9970999956130981,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11303","display_name":"Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference","score":0.9970999956130981,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10906","display_name":"AI-based Problem Solving and Planning","score":0.982699990272522,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11010","display_name":"Logic, Reasoning, and Knowledge","score":0.9785000085830688,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/causal-model","display_name":"Causal model","score":0.7308798432350159},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/conditional-probability","display_name":"Conditional probability","score":0.7120041847229004},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-logic","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","score":0.6083143949508667},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/normative","display_name":"Normative","score":0.6016477346420288},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/causal-inference","display_name":"Causal inference","score":0.5788706541061401},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.5595340132713318},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.469561368227005},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/causal-structure","display_name":"Causal structure","score":0.45674198865890503},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/chain-rule","display_name":"Chain rule (probability)","score":0.43103355169296265},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/machine-learning","display_name":"Machine learning","score":0.41254866123199463},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probability-theory","display_name":"Probability theory","score":0.410832941532135},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.30688154697418213},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/posterior-probability","display_name":"Posterior probability","score":0.27698856592178345},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/law-of-total-probability","display_name":"Law of total probability","score":0.21926012635231018},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.2159201204776764},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/epistemology","display_name":"Epistemology","score":0.15834015607833862},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.14584195613861084},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-probability","display_name":"Bayesian probability","score":0.14058330655097961}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11671645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5054567","display_name":"Causal model","level":2,"score":0.7308798432350159},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44492722","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q327069","display_name":"Conditional probability","level":2,"score":0.7120041847229004},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.6083143949508667},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44725695","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q288156","display_name":"Normative","level":2,"score":0.6016477346420288},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C158600405","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5054566","display_name":"Causal inference","level":2,"score":0.5788706541061401},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5595340132713318},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.469561368227005},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163504300","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2364925","display_name":"Causal structure","level":2,"score":0.45674198865890503},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33825631","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17004731","display_name":"Chain rule (probability)","level":5,"score":0.43103355169296265},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.41254866123199463},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C122203268","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5862903","display_name":"Probability theory","level":2,"score":0.410832941532135},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.30688154697418213},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C57830394","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q278079","display_name":"Posterior probability","level":3,"score":0.27698856592178345},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49698424","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1989192","display_name":"Law of total probability","level":4,"score":0.21926012635231018},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.2159201204776764},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111472728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9471","display_name":"Epistemology","level":1,"score":0.15834015607833862},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.14584195613861084},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.14058330655097961},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62520636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q944","display_name":"Quantum mechanics","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.4018/ijkbo.2017010103","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.4018/ijkbo.2017010103","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210171617","display_name":"International Journal of Knowledge-Based Organizations","issn_l":"2155-6393","issn":["2155-6393","2155-6407"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320424","host_organization_name":"IGI Global","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320424"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["IGI Global"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Knowledge-Based Organizations","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:igg:jkbo00:v:7:y:2017:i:1:p:32-63","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://services.igi-global.com/resolvedoi/resolve.aspx?doi=10.4018/IJKBO.2017010103","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":38,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W188378287","https://openalex.org/W197602000","https://openalex.org/W374791039","https://openalex.org/W1530854995","https://openalex.org/W1574396325","https://openalex.org/W1970858414","https://openalex.org/W1974559974","https://openalex.org/W1976724302","https://openalex.org/W1988660927","https://openalex.org/W1989450197","https://openalex.org/W1994942306","https://openalex.org/W1995732126","https://openalex.org/W2000820958","https://openalex.org/W2015071685","https://openalex.org/W2016377072","https://openalex.org/W2035782089","https://openalex.org/W2044044384","https://openalex.org/W2047836425","https://openalex.org/W2050336856","https://openalex.org/W2059975159","https://openalex.org/W2062592934","https://openalex.org/W2062991217","https://openalex.org/W2063760437","https://openalex.org/W2076441302","https://openalex.org/W2076520559","https://openalex.org/W2078449204","https://openalex.org/W2084630014","https://openalex.org/W2084840427","https://openalex.org/W2091867472","https://openalex.org/W2112533090","https://openalex.org/W2136977162","https://openalex.org/W2168158137","https://openalex.org/W2180162134","https://openalex.org/W2318251225","https://openalex.org/W2396130432","https://openalex.org/W2989666889","https://openalex.org/W3035258717","https://openalex.org/W3139535682"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2136165559","https://openalex.org/W2960903350","https://openalex.org/W2161504683","https://openalex.org/W2285782125","https://openalex.org/W2477954850","https://openalex.org/W2004039065","https://openalex.org/W2531326175","https://openalex.org/W2028130438","https://openalex.org/W2090735589","https://openalex.org/W2175833819"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"This":[0,40,84,103],"paper":[1,41,85,104,130],"presents":[2,115],"ideas":[3],"for":[4,134],"improved":[5,10],"conditional":[6,53,82,127],"probability":[7,111],"assessment":[8],"and":[9,37,44,77,110,113],"expert":[11],"systems":[12],"consultations.":[13],"It":[14],"cautions":[15],"that":[16,87,120,137],"knowledge":[17,138],"engineers":[18,139],"may":[19,32,140],"sometimes":[20],"be":[21,90],"imprecise":[22],"when":[23],"capturing":[24],"causal":[25,36,74,96,100,109,123,145],"information":[26],"from":[27],"experts:":[28],"their":[29],"elicitation":[30,135],"questions":[31,136],"not":[33,80],"distinguish":[34],"between":[35],"correlational":[38],"expertise.":[39],"shows":[42],"why":[43],"how":[45],"such":[46],"models":[47],"cannot":[48],"support":[49],"normative":[50],"inferencing":[51,118],"over":[52],"probabilities":[54,71,98,124],"as":[55,92],"if":[56,93],"they":[57,94],"were":[58,95],"all":[59],"based":[60,150],"on":[61,108],"frequencies":[62],"in":[63],"the":[64,106],"long":[65],"run.":[66],"In":[67],"some":[68],"cases,":[69],"these":[70,88],"are":[72,79],"instead":[73],"theory-based":[75,122,146],"judgments,":[76],"therefore":[78],"traditional":[81],"probabilities.":[83,102,128],"argues":[86],"should":[89],"processed":[91],"strength":[97],"or":[99],"propensity":[101],"reviews":[105],"literature":[107],"judgment,":[112],"then":[114],"a":[116],"probabilistic":[117],"model":[119],"integrates":[121],"with":[125,148],"frequency-based":[126],"The":[129],"also":[131],"proposes":[132],"guidelines":[133],"use":[141],"to":[142],"avoid":[143],"conflating":[144],"judgment":[147],"frequency":[149],"judgment.":[151]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-06-11T06:19:23.411458","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
