{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3112102355","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/info12030109","title":"Analysis and Prediction of COVID-19 Using SIR, SEIQR, and Machine Learning Models: Australia, Italy, and UK Cases","display_name":"Analysis and Prediction of COVID-19 Using SIR, SEIQR, and Machine Learning Models: Australia, Italy, and UK Cases","publication_year":2021,"publication_date":"2021-03-03","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3112102355","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/info12030109","mag":"3112102355"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/info12030109","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/info12030109","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2078-2489/12/3/109/pdf?version=1615875195","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210219776","display_name":"Information","issn_l":"2078-2489","issn":["2078-2489"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Information","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2078-2489/12/3/109/pdf?version=1615875195","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5080512572","display_name":"Iman Rahimi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3780-4726"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I130343225","display_name":"Universiti Putra Malaysia","ror":"https://ror.org/02e91jd64","country_code":"MY","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I130343225"]}],"countries":["MY"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Iman Rahimi","raw_affiliation_strings":["Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang 43400, Malaysia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang 43400, Malaysia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I130343225"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5039341855","display_name":"Amir H. Gandomi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2798-0104"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I114017466","display_name":"University of Technology Sydney","ror":"https://ror.org/03f0f6041","country_code":"AU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I114017466"]}],"countries":["AU"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Amir H. Gandomi","raw_affiliation_strings":["Data Science Institute, University of Technology Sydney, Ultimo 2007, Australia"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2798-0104","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Data Science Institute, University of Technology Sydney, Ultimo 2007, Australia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I114017466"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5074051723","display_name":"Panagiotis G. Asteris","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7142-4981"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I254421610","display_name":"School of Pedagogical and Technological Education","ror":"https://ror.org/04v3r9z94","country_code":"GR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I254421610"]}],"countries":["GR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Panagiotis G. Asteris","raw_affiliation_strings":["Computational Mechanics Laboratory, School of Pedagogical and Technological Education, 15122 Athens, Greece"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7142-4981","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Computational Mechanics Laboratory, School of Pedagogical and Technological Education, 15122 Athens, Greece","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I254421610"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5004662910","display_name":"Chen Fang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9425-5626"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I114017466","display_name":"University of Technology Sydney","ror":"https://ror.org/03f0f6041","country_code":"AU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I114017466"]}],"countries":["AU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Fang Chen","raw_affiliation_strings":["Data Science Institute, University of Technology Sydney, Ultimo 2007, Australia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Data Science Institute, University of Technology Sydney, Ultimo 2007, Australia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I114017466"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":3,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5039341855"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I114017466"],"apc_list":{"value":1400,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":1515},"apc_paid":{"value":1400,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":1515},"fwci":6.5708,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":81,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.97535121,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":98,"max":100},"biblio":{"volume":"12","issue":"3","first_page":"109","last_page":"109"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9998000264167786,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9998000264167786,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10118","display_name":"SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research","score":0.9966999888420105,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2725","display_name":"Infectious Diseases"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10041","display_name":"COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies","score":0.9591000080108643,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2725","display_name":"Infectious Diseases"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/context","display_name":"Context (archaeology)","score":0.6969457864761353},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/coronavirus-disease-2019","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","score":0.5787055492401123},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.5699816942214966},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/broyden\u2013fletcher\u2013goldfarb\u2013shanno-algorithm","display_name":"Broyden\u2013Fletcher\u2013Goldfarb\u2013Shanno algorithm","score":0.5176284909248352},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.4875640273094177},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/logistic-function","display_name":"Logistic function","score":0.4775315523147583},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/logistic-regression","display_name":"Logistic regression","score":0.4758688807487488},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/pandemic","display_name":"Pandemic","score":0.4655758738517761},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/machine-learning","display_name":"Machine learning","score":0.44105058908462524},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.3517221510410309},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/algorithm","display_name":"Algorithm","score":0.3402314782142639},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/operations-research","display_name":"Operations research","score":0.3263202905654907},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/geography","display_name":"Geography","score":0.29887133836746216},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.22412309050559998},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/disease","display_name":"Disease","score":0.212936669588089},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/medicine","display_name":"Medicine","score":0.18213796615600586},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/infectious-disease","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","score":0.09593862295150757}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779343474","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3109175","display_name":"Context (archaeology)","level":2,"score":0.6969457864761353},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3008058167","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q84263196","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","level":4,"score":0.5787055492401123},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5699816942214966},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132721684","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2877013","display_name":"Broyden\u2013Fletcher\u2013Goldfarb\u2013Shanno algorithm","level":3,"score":0.5176284909248352},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.4875640273094177},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C180802074","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1052379","display_name":"Logistic function","level":2,"score":0.4775315523147583},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151956035","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1132755","display_name":"Logistic regression","level":2,"score":0.4758688807487488},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C89623803","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12184","display_name":"Pandemic","level":5,"score":0.4655758738517761},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.44105058908462524},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.3517221510410309},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11413529","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8366","display_name":"Algorithm","level":1,"score":0.3402314782142639},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42475967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194292","display_name":"Operations research","level":1,"score":0.3263202905654907},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.29887133836746216},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.22412309050559998},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779134260","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12136","display_name":"Disease","level":2,"score":0.212936669588089},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.18213796615600586},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C524204448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q788926","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","level":3,"score":0.09593862295150757},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C31258907","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1301371","display_name":"Computer network","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151319957","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q752739","display_name":"Asynchronous communication","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166957645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23498","display_name":"Archaeology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C142724271","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7208","display_name":"Pathology","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.3390/info12030109","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/info12030109","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2078-2489/12/3/109/pdf?version=1615875195","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210219776","display_name":"Information","issn_l":"2078-2489","issn":["2078-2489"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Information","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:9666658712ca4178811660f1ade8621d","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/9666658712ca4178811660f1ade8621d","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Information, Vol 12, Iss 3, p 109 (2021)","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:mdpi.com:/2078-2489/12/3/109/","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/info12030109","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400947","display_name":"MDPI (MDPI AG)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4210097602","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (Switzerland)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210097602"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Information; Volume 12; Issue 3; Pages: 109","raw_type":"Text"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/info12030109","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/info12030109","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2078-2489/12/3/109/pdf?version=1615875195","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210219776","display_name":"Information","issn_l":"2078-2489","issn":["2078-2489"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Information","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.7799999713897705,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","display_name":"Good health and well-being"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3112102355.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3112102355.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":40,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W888141997","https://openalex.org/W1574923579","https://openalex.org/W1969733464","https://openalex.org/W1991038590","https://openalex.org/W2000359198","https://openalex.org/W2077658674","https://openalex.org/W2089450265","https://openalex.org/W2114642789","https://openalex.org/W2171074980","https://openalex.org/W2747599906","https://openalex.org/W2796948497","https://openalex.org/W2969558179","https://openalex.org/W2982545415","https://openalex.org/W3007602081","https://openalex.org/W3012186721","https://openalex.org/W3014804276","https://openalex.org/W3015156876","https://openalex.org/W3016049706","https://openalex.org/W3016450632","https://openalex.org/W3017051018","https://openalex.org/W3018219276","https://openalex.org/W3020596360","https://openalex.org/W3024647574","https://openalex.org/W3029558740","https://openalex.org/W3037997555","https://openalex.org/W3049701554","https://openalex.org/W3084584045","https://openalex.org/W3085464968","https://openalex.org/W3089649493","https://openalex.org/W3090525986","https://openalex.org/W3090711554","https://openalex.org/W3092136142","https://openalex.org/W3115894432","https://openalex.org/W3122264681","https://openalex.org/W3122270335","https://openalex.org/W3123821786","https://openalex.org/W4210379526","https://openalex.org/W6624099699","https://openalex.org/W6775805797","https://openalex.org/W6782485502"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2016852760","https://openalex.org/W1972403393","https://openalex.org/W3078710903","https://openalex.org/W2787890441","https://openalex.org/W2050511877","https://openalex.org/W3114286735","https://openalex.org/W2960088919","https://openalex.org/W3128946703","https://openalex.org/W2061411662","https://openalex.org/W805945170"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0,36,144,170],"novel":[1],"coronavirus":[2],"disease,":[3],"also":[4],"known":[5],"as":[6,182,184,210,212],"COVID-19,":[7],"is":[8,34,232,277],"a":[9,18,25,244,254],"disease":[10,62],"outbreak":[11],"that":[12,52,228,281],"was":[13,199],"first":[14],"identified":[15],"in":[16,48,53,63,92,179,240,257,273],"Wuhan,":[17],"Central":[19],"Chinese":[20],"city.":[21],"In":[22],"this":[23,274],"report,":[24],"short":[26],"analysis":[27,37],"focusing":[28],"on":[29,70,108],"Australia,":[30],"Italy,":[31],"and":[32,40,43,55,57,73,77,82,105,126,134,141,150,167,192,218,249],"UK":[33,219],"conducted.":[35],"includes":[38],"confirmed":[39],"recovered":[41,74,83],"cases":[42,76,85,220],"deaths,":[44],"the":[45,58,61,93,97,100,132,135,139,147,164,173,185,189,196,207,229,241,258,262,265],"growth":[46],"rate":[47],"Australia":[49],"compared":[50,154],"with":[51,155,236],"Italy":[54,217],"UK,":[56],"trend":[59,239,271],"of":[60,99,103,138,146,157,176,188,243,247,261,267],"different":[64,174,180],"Australian":[65,223],"regions.":[66],"Mathematical":[67],"approaches":[68],"based":[69],"susceptible,":[71,78],"infected,":[72,80],"(SIR)":[75],"exposed,":[79],"quarantined,":[81],"(SEIQR)":[84],"models":[86,152],"are":[87,128],"proposed":[88,129],"to":[89,130,201],"predict":[90],"epidemiology":[91],"above-mentioned":[94],"countries.":[95],"Since":[96],"performance":[98,187,205,215],"classic":[101],"forms":[102],"SIR":[104,140,149,191,248],"SEIQR":[106,142,151,193,250],"depends":[107],"parameter":[109],"settings,":[110],"some":[111],"optimization":[112],"algorithms,":[113,162],"namely":[114],"Broyden\u2013Fletcher\u2013Goldfarb\u2013Shanno":[115],"(BFGS),":[116],"conjugate":[117],"gradients":[118],"(CG),":[119],"limited":[120],"memory":[121],"bound":[122],"constrained":[123],"BFGS":[124],"(L-BFGS-B),":[125],"Nelder\u2013Mead,":[127],"optimize":[131],"parameters":[133,252],"predictive":[136],"capabilities":[137],"models.":[143,194,263],"results":[145,171],"optimized":[148],"were":[153],"those":[156],"two":[158],"well-known":[159],"machine":[160],"learning":[161],"i.e.,":[163],"Prophet":[165,197,230],"algorithm":[166,198,231,280],"logistic":[168,208],"function.":[169],"demonstrate":[172],"behaviors":[175],"these":[177],"algorithms":[178,269],"countries":[181],"well":[183,211],"better":[186,203,213],"improved":[190],"Moreover,":[195],"found":[200],"provide":[202],"prediction":[204,214,259],"than":[206,221],"function,":[209],"for":[216,222,234,270,285],"cases.":[224,287],"Therefore,":[225],"it":[226],"seems":[227],"suitable":[233],"data":[235],"an":[237],"increasing":[238],"context":[242],"pandemic.":[245],"Optimization":[246],"model":[251],"yielded":[253],"significant":[255],"improvement":[256],"accuracy":[260],"Despite":[264],"availability":[266],"several":[268],"predictions":[272],"pandemic,":[275],"there":[276],"no":[278],"single":[279],"would":[282],"be":[283],"optimal":[284],"all":[286]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":19},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":15},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":25},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":13}],"updated_date":"2026-05-21T06:26:12.895304","created_date":"2020-12-21T00:00:00"}
