{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7125504610","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/systems14020119","title":"Structural Capacity Constraints in Australia\u2019s Housing Crisis: A System Dynamics Analysis of the National Housing Accord\u2019s Unachievable Targets","display_name":"Structural Capacity Constraints in Australia\u2019s Housing Crisis: A System Dynamics Analysis of the National Housing Accord\u2019s Unachievable Targets","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-01-23","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7125504610","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/systems14020119"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/systems14020119","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/systems14020119","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2079-8954/14/2/119/pdf?version=1769162708","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210219410","display_name":"Systems","issn_l":"2079-8954","issn":["2079-8954"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Systems","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2079-8954/14/2/119/pdf?version=1769162708","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5062497351","display_name":"Gavin Melles","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1067-483X"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I57093077","display_name":"Swinburne University of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/031rekg67","country_code":"AU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I57093077"]}],"countries":["AU"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Gavin Melles","raw_affiliation_strings":["Faculty of Architecture and Industrial Design, Swinburne University, Hawthorn 3022, Australia"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1067-483X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Faculty of Architecture and Industrial Design, Swinburne University, Hawthorn 3022, Australia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I57093077"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5062497351"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I57093077"],"apc_list":{"value":1600,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":1732},"apc_paid":{"value":1600,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":1732},"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.09521436,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"14","issue":"2","first_page":"119","last_page":"119"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11817","display_name":"Housing, Finance, and Neoliberalism","score":0.23229999840259552,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11817","display_name":"Housing, Finance, and Neoliberalism","score":0.23229999840259552,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10395","display_name":"Construction Project Management and Performance","score":0.20489999651908875,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10632","display_name":"Housing Market and Economics","score":0.16699999570846558,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/workforce","display_name":"Workforce","score":0.6470000147819519},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/baseline","display_name":"Baseline (sea)","score":0.5960000157356262},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/productivity","display_name":"Productivity","score":0.48030000925064087},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/capacity-utilization","display_name":"Capacity utilization","score":0.459199994802475},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/population","display_name":"Population","score":0.44679999351501465},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/time-horizon","display_name":"Time horizon","score":0.4456000030040741},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/system-dynamics","display_name":"System dynamics","score":0.4447000026702881},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ceiling","display_name":"Ceiling (cloud)","score":0.3538999855518341},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/scenario-analysis","display_name":"Scenario analysis","score":0.34049999713897705}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778139618","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q13440398","display_name":"Workforce","level":2,"score":0.6470000147819519},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C12725497","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q810247","display_name":"Baseline (sea)","level":2,"score":0.5960000157356262},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204983608","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2111958","display_name":"Productivity","level":2,"score":0.48030000925064087},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C13166094","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1597271","display_name":"Capacity utilization","level":2,"score":0.459199994802475},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.44679999351501465},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C28761237","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7805321","display_name":"Time horizon","level":2,"score":0.4456000030040741},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77405623","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q598451","display_name":"System dynamics","level":2,"score":0.4447000026702881},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.4406000077724457},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.39730000495910645},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777489069","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1589822","display_name":"Ceiling (cloud)","level":2,"score":0.3538999855518341},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18785705","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1931373","display_name":"Scenario analysis","level":2,"score":0.34049999713897705},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C200941418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q273508","display_name":"Inflation (cosmology)","level":2,"score":0.33230000734329224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C63479239","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7353546","display_name":"Robustness (evolution)","level":3,"score":0.3301999866962433},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C120009192","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1936153","display_name":"Total factor productivity","level":3,"score":0.32170000672340393},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C13774568","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q439112","display_name":"Population ageing","level":3,"score":0.3174999952316284},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C120936955","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2155640","display_name":"Empirical research","level":2,"score":0.3102000057697296},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C123587114","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2101508","display_name":"Policy analysis","level":2,"score":0.30480000376701355},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.2946999967098236},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776036281","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q48769818","display_name":"Constraint (computer-aided design)","level":2,"score":0.29120001196861267},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C155663085","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1056396","display_name":"Workforce planning","level":3,"score":0.290800005197525},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779622097","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1417724","display_name":"Capacity building","level":2,"score":0.28999999165534973},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780571617","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2072185","display_name":"Workforce management","level":3,"score":0.2888000011444092},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C10138342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43015","display_name":"Finance","level":1,"score":0.2773999869823456},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21547014","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1423657","display_name":"Operations management","level":1,"score":0.27549999952316284},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781300812","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q178061","display_name":"Shock (circulatory)","level":2,"score":0.2694999873638153},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134560507","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q753291","display_name":"Environmental economics","level":1,"score":0.2694000005722046},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C70179600","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1416547","display_name":"Financial plan","level":2,"score":0.2644999921321869},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C45555294","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q28113351","display_name":"Inequality","level":2,"score":0.26080000400543213},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C89128539","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1949963","display_name":"Statistic","level":2,"score":0.26080000400543213},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C109986646","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q546113","display_name":"Public policy","level":2,"score":0.25949999690055847},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778680390","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2369019","display_name":"Population projection","level":4,"score":0.257099986076355},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780614964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q811154","display_name":"Crunch","level":2,"score":0.25270000100135803}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.3390/systems14020119","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/systems14020119","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2079-8954/14/2/119/pdf?version=1769162708","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210219410","display_name":"Systems","issn_l":"2079-8954","issn":["2079-8954"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Systems","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:335038ba1a5f47d1b6a058df4b8ba25e","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/335038ba1a5f47d1b6a058df4b8ba25e","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Systems, Vol 14, Iss 2, p 119 (2026)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/systems14020119","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/systems14020119","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2079-8954/14/2/119/pdf?version=1769162708","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210219410","display_name":"Systems","issn_l":"2079-8954","issn":["2079-8954"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Systems","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.4572753310203552,"display_name":"Industry, innovation and infrastructure","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/9"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7125504610.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7125504610.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":43,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W100464641","https://openalex.org/W1540062463","https://openalex.org/W1630317088","https://openalex.org/W1848485585","https://openalex.org/W1968936982","https://openalex.org/W1983291248","https://openalex.org/W1988550741","https://openalex.org/W1999245987","https://openalex.org/W2016292350","https://openalex.org/W2026435543","https://openalex.org/W2042893039","https://openalex.org/W2044600039","https://openalex.org/W2049743915","https://openalex.org/W2056073594","https://openalex.org/W2057106771","https://openalex.org/W2059206267","https://openalex.org/W2060756742","https://openalex.org/W2063715511","https://openalex.org/W2071358607","https://openalex.org/W2080833357","https://openalex.org/W2085763257","https://openalex.org/W2089815294","https://openalex.org/W2097693293","https://openalex.org/W2103711076","https://openalex.org/W2103843736","https://openalex.org/W2104757449","https://openalex.org/W2107816796","https://openalex.org/W2118725599","https://openalex.org/W2145736592","https://openalex.org/W2150086489","https://openalex.org/W2157982262","https://openalex.org/W2162842846","https://openalex.org/W2169872828","https://openalex.org/W2497622547","https://openalex.org/W2754978208","https://openalex.org/W3121728209","https://openalex.org/W3123547007","https://openalex.org/W3124952439","https://openalex.org/W3125116988","https://openalex.org/W3126050392","https://openalex.org/W3197118499","https://openalex.org/W4246909267","https://openalex.org/W4247989576"],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Australia\u2019s":[0],"National":[1],"Housing":[2],"Accord":[3,163],"aims":[4],"to":[5,43,117,199,213],"deliver":[6],"1.2":[7,170],"million":[8,171],"new":[9],"dwellings":[10,160],"between":[11],"mid-2024":[12],"and":[13,70,100,138,204,219],"mid-2029,":[14],"representing":[15],"240,000":[16],"annual":[17,105,146],"completions\u2014a":[18],"37%":[19],"increase":[20],"above":[21,226],"the":[22,84,153,162,169,176,216],"2024":[23,118],"baseline":[24,228],"of":[25,86,112,143,158,168,194],"175,000.":[26],"This":[27],"study":[28],"employs":[29],"a":[30,75,140],"comprehensive":[31],"system":[32,208],"dynamics":[33],"model":[34,57,154],"with":[35],"79":[36],"equations":[37],"(10":[38],"stocks,":[39],"69":[40],"auxiliary":[41],"variables)":[42],"analyze":[44],"whether":[45],"this":[46],"target":[47],"is":[48],"structurally":[49],"achievable,":[50],"given":[51],"construction":[52,64],"industry":[53],"capacity":[54,89,127,191,222],"constraints.":[55],"The":[56,230],"integrates":[58],"builder":[59,179],"population":[60],"dynamics,":[61],"workforce":[62,101,136],"capacity,":[63],"cost":[65,92],"inflation,":[66],"material":[67,134],"supply":[68,141],"constraints,":[69],"financial":[71],"market":[72],"conditions":[73],"across":[74],"ten-year":[76],"simulation":[77],"horizon":[78],"(2024.5\u20132035).":[79],"Three":[80],"policy":[81,151,256],"scenarios":[82],"test":[83],"effectiveness":[85],"interventions,":[87],"including":[88],"expansion":[90],"(\u00b110\u201315%),":[91],"inflation":[93],"management":[94],"(\u00b115\u201320%),":[95],"planning":[96],"reforms":[97],"(+5\u201315%":[98],"efficiency),":[99],"development":[102],"programs":[103],"(+1000\u20134000":[104],"graduates).":[106],"Model":[107],"validation":[108],"against":[109],"Australian":[110],"Bureau":[111],"Statistics":[113],"data":[114],"from":[115,211],"2015":[116],"demonstrates":[119],"strong":[120],"empirical":[121],"foundations.":[122],"Results":[123],"show":[124],"that":[125,233,242],"structural":[126,239],"constraints\u2014driven":[128],"by":[129,184],"three":[130],"simultaneous":[131],"bottlenecks":[132],"in":[133],"supply,":[135],"availability,":[137],"financing\u2014create":[139],"ceiling":[142],"around":[144],"180,000\u2013195,000":[145],"completions.":[147],"Even":[148],"under":[149,187],"optimistic":[150],"assumptions,":[152],"projects":[155],"cumulative":[156],"completions":[157],"880,000\u2013920,000":[159],"over":[161,215],"period,":[164,218],"falling":[165],"23\u201327%":[166],"short":[167],"target.":[172],"Critical":[173],"findings":[174],"include":[175],"following:":[177],"(1)":[178],"insolvencies":[180],"exceeding":[181],"entry":[182],"rates":[183],"15\u201325%":[185],"annually":[186],"stress":[188],"conditions,":[189],"(2)":[190],"decline":[192],"trends":[193],"0.6\u20130.8%":[195],"per":[196],"year":[197],"due":[198],"productivity":[200],"losses,":[201],"infrastructure":[202],"bottlenecks,":[203],"regulatory":[205],"burden,":[206],"(3)":[207],"efficiency":[209],"degradation":[210],"100%":[212],"96%":[214],"projection":[217],"(4)":[220],"non-linear":[221],"utilization,":[223],"showing":[224],"saturation":[225],"82%":[227],"levels.":[229],"analysis":[231],"reveals":[232],"demand-side":[234],"policies":[235],"cannot":[236],"overcome":[237],"supply-side":[238],"limits,":[240],"suggesting":[241],"policymakers":[243],"must":[244],"either":[245],"substantially":[246],"reduce":[247],"targets":[248],"or":[249],"implement":[250],"transformative":[251],"capacity-building":[252],"interventions":[253],"beyond":[254],"current":[255],"contemplation.":[257]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-06-13T06:13:01.061226","created_date":"2026-01-24T00:00:00"}
