{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4413402227","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/systems13080720","title":"Research on Dynamic Measurement and Early Warning of Systemic Financial Risk in China Based on TVP-FAVAR and Deep Learning Model","display_name":"Research on Dynamic Measurement and Early Warning of Systemic Financial Risk in China Based on TVP-FAVAR and Deep Learning Model","publication_year":2025,"publication_date":"2025-08-21","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4413402227","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/systems13080720"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/systems13080720","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/systems13080720","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2079-8954/13/8/720/pdf?version=1755739739","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210219410","display_name":"Systems","issn_l":"2079-8954","issn":["2079-8954"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Systems","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2079-8954/13/8/720/pdf?version=1755739739","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5035690587","display_name":"Hufang Yang","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I41198531","display_name":"Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications","ror":"https://ror.org/043bpky34","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I41198531"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Hufang Yang","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Economics, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210023, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Economics, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210023, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I41198531"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Luyi Liu","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I41198531","display_name":"Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications","ror":"https://ror.org/043bpky34","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I41198531"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Luyi Liu","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Economics, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210023, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Economics, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210023, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I41198531"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Jieyang Cui","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I41198531","display_name":"Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications","ror":"https://ror.org/043bpky34","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I41198531"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jieyang Cui","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Economics, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210023, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Economics, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210023, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I41198531"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5082558111","display_name":"Wenbin Wu","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I41198531","display_name":"Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications","ror":"https://ror.org/043bpky34","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I41198531"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Wenbin Wu","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Computer Science, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210023, China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0000-3414-2144","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Computer Science, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210023, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I41198531"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5113076724","display_name":"Yuyang Gao","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I137056471","display_name":"Nanjing University of Finance and Economics","ror":"https://ror.org/031y8am81","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I137056471"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Yuyang Gao","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Economics, Nanjing University of Finance & Economics, Nanjing 210023, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Economics, Nanjing University of Finance & Economics, Nanjing 210023, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I137056471"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":5,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5113076724"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I137056471"],"apc_list":{"value":1600,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":1732},"apc_paid":{"value":1600,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":1732},"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.23624951,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"13","issue":"8","first_page":"720","last_page":"720"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11326","display_name":"Stock Market Forecasting Methods","score":0.9783999919891357,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11326","display_name":"Stock Market Forecasting Methods","score":0.9783999919891357,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11052","display_name":"Energy Load and Power Forecasting","score":0.9754999876022339,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11059","display_name":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","score":0.9656000137329102,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/systemic-risk","display_name":"Systemic risk","score":0.7381788492202759},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/warning-system","display_name":"Warning system","score":0.6156620979309082},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/china","display_name":"China","score":0.5944137573242188},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/financial-crisis","display_name":"Financial crisis","score":0.3609451651573181},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.20034918189048767},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economics","display_name":"Economics","score":0.19824007153511047},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/political-science","display_name":"Political science","score":0.15196144580841064},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/macroeconomics","display_name":"Macroeconomics","score":0.042174845933914185}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144587487","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1369234","display_name":"Systemic risk","level":3,"score":0.7381788492202759},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C29825287","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1427940","display_name":"Warning system","level":2,"score":0.6156620979309082},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C191935318","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q148","display_name":"China","level":2,"score":0.5944137573242188},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778300220","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q114380","display_name":"Financial crisis","level":2,"score":0.3609451651573181},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.20034918189048767},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.19824007153511047},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.15196144580841064},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139719470","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39680","display_name":"Macroeconomics","level":1,"score":0.042174845933914185},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C76155785","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q418","display_name":"Telecommunications","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.3390/systems13080720","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/systems13080720","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2079-8954/13/8/720/pdf?version=1755739739","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210219410","display_name":"Systems","issn_l":"2079-8954","issn":["2079-8954"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Systems","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:1822abb5f5934da8a763e2c7d32cca84","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/1822abb5f5934da8a763e2c7d32cca84","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Systems, Vol 13, Iss 8, p 720 (2025)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/systems13080720","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/systems13080720","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2079-8954/13/8/720/pdf?version=1755739739","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210219410","display_name":"Systems","issn_l":"2079-8954","issn":["2079-8954"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Systems","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G1583456161","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"NYY222024","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320336573","funder_display_name":"Humanities and Social Sciences Youth Foundation, Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G4604723335","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"23YJCZH261","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320336573","funder_display_name":"Humanities and Social Sciences Youth Foundation, Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320323268","display_name":"Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications","ror":"https://ror.org/043bpky34"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320324852","display_name":"Nanjing University","ror":"https://ror.org/01rxvg760"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320336573","display_name":"Humanities and Social Sciences Youth Foundation, Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China","ror":null}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4413402227.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4413402227.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":48,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W67609593","https://openalex.org/W2032170121","https://openalex.org/W2038168460","https://openalex.org/W2064675550","https://openalex.org/W2069832953","https://openalex.org/W2108175353","https://openalex.org/W2112639894","https://openalex.org/W2131288139","https://openalex.org/W2132527237","https://openalex.org/W2133073622","https://openalex.org/W2308665812","https://openalex.org/W2465346083","https://openalex.org/W2795114264","https://openalex.org/W2938229039","https://openalex.org/W3036675179","https://openalex.org/W3121326409","https://openalex.org/W3121664163","https://openalex.org/W3123085324","https://openalex.org/W3126678629","https://openalex.org/W3166610708","https://openalex.org/W3176196997","https://openalex.org/W4230327943","https://openalex.org/W4246715751","https://openalex.org/W4317254293","https://openalex.org/W4378648695","https://openalex.org/W4385245566","https://openalex.org/W4386565722","https://openalex.org/W4387233917","https://openalex.org/W4388914224","https://openalex.org/W4389993524","https://openalex.org/W4391962827","https://openalex.org/W4393253253","https://openalex.org/W4399122827","https://openalex.org/W4401406828","https://openalex.org/W4404351592","https://openalex.org/W4406322733","https://openalex.org/W4407344503","https://openalex.org/W4407587918","https://openalex.org/W4409593344","https://openalex.org/W4410432065","https://openalex.org/W4411764176","https://openalex.org/W6602777439","https://openalex.org/W6676138739","https://openalex.org/W6676849024","https://openalex.org/W6679512934","https://openalex.org/W6739901393","https://openalex.org/W6861407986","https://openalex.org/W6877372042"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W613889982","https://openalex.org/W2892044735","https://openalex.org/W2347071282","https://openalex.org/W348488691","https://openalex.org/W3124300971","https://openalex.org/W2953117877","https://openalex.org/W4301357666","https://openalex.org/W3124654348","https://openalex.org/W3083992059","https://openalex.org/W3206284067"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"With":[0],"the":[1,14,35,45,68,76,87,96,100,116,129,132,139,143,147,154,165,176,208],"accelerated":[2],"development":[3],"of":[4,9,21,79,131,142],"economic":[5],"globalization,":[6],"it":[7],"is":[8,63,105,118],"great":[10],"significance":[11],"to":[12,16,51,74,107,120,171],"strengthen":[13],"ability":[15],"measure,":[17],"evaluate,":[18],"and":[19,27,65,115,151,162,186,201],"warn":[20],"systemic":[22,55,133],"financial":[23,29,56,69,83,92,110,134,197,209],"risks":[24],"for":[25,196,206],"preventing":[26],"defusing":[28],"risks.":[30,84],"Thus,":[31],"this":[32],"research":[33],"established":[34],"Time-Varying":[36],"Parameter":[37],"Factor-Augmented":[38],"Vector":[39],"Autoregression":[40],"model":[41,104,145,156,178],"(TVP-FAVAR),":[42],"combined":[43],"with":[44],"Markov":[46],"Regime":[47],"Switching":[48],"Autoregressive":[49],"Model,":[50],"dynamically":[52],"measure":[53],"China\u2019s":[54],"risk.":[57],"The":[58,123],"network":[59],"public":[60,157],"opinion":[61,158],"index":[62,136,159],"constructed":[64],"introduced":[66],"into":[67],"risk":[70,111,135,198],"early":[71,112,199],"warning":[72,113,200],"system":[73],"capture":[75],"dynamic":[77,140],"impact":[78],"market":[80],"sentiment":[81],"on":[82,95,138],"After":[85],"testing":[86],"nonlinear":[88,166],"causal":[89],"relationship":[90,167],"between":[91,168],"indicators":[93],"based":[94,137],"transfer":[97],"entropy":[98],"method,":[99],"Transformer":[101,155,177],"deep":[102],"learning":[103,174],"applied":[106],"build":[108],"a":[109,192],"system,":[114],"performance":[117],"compared":[119],"traditional":[121,172],"methods.":[122],"experimental":[124],"results":[125],"showed":[126],"that":[127,152],"(1)":[128],"trend":[130],"measurement":[141],"TVP-FAVAR":[144],"fitted":[146],"actual":[148],"situation":[149],"well":[150],"(2)":[153],"could":[160],"fully":[161],"effectively":[163],"mine":[164],"data.":[169],"Compared":[170],"machine":[173],"methods,":[175],"has":[179,202],"significant":[180],"advantages":[181],"in":[182],"stronger":[183],"prediction":[184],"accuracy":[185],"generalization":[187],"ability.":[188],"This":[189],"study":[190],"provided":[191],"new":[193],"technical":[194],"path":[195],"important":[203],"reference":[204],"value":[205],"improving":[207],"regulatory":[210],"system.":[211]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-05-21T06:26:12.895304","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
