{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2512103537","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/rs8090690","title":"Drought Forecasting with Vegetation Temperature Condition Index Using ARIMA Models in the Guanzhong Plain","display_name":"Drought Forecasting with Vegetation Temperature Condition Index Using ARIMA Models in the Guanzhong Plain","publication_year":2016,"publication_date":"2016-08-23","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2512103537","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/rs8090690","mag":"2512103537"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/rs8090690","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/rs8090690","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/8/9/690/pdf?version=1471957339","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S43295729","display_name":"Remote Sensing","issn_l":"2072-4292","issn":["2072-4292"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Remote Sensing","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/8/9/690/pdf?version=1471957339","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5034879141","display_name":"Miao Tian","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6800-9760"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210087107","display_name":"Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences","ror":"https://ror.org/001f9e125","country_code":"CN","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210087107"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210143900","display_name":"Rural Development Institute","ror":"https://ror.org/04wtra345","country_code":"CN","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I114218197","https://openalex.org/I4210143900"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Miao Tian","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute of Agricultural Economics and Information, Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Nanjing 210014, China"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute of Agricultural Economics and Information, Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Nanjing 210014, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210087107","https://openalex.org/I4210143900"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5102940284","display_name":"Pengxin Wang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2655-6731"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I52158045","display_name":"China Agricultural University","ror":"https://ror.org/04v3ywz14","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I52158045"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Pengxin Wang","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Geographic Information Engineering, College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, East Campus, Beijing 100083, China"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Geographic Information Engineering, College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, East Campus, Beijing 100083, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I52158045"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5072240269","display_name":"Jahangir Khan","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4426-8397"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I52158045","display_name":"China Agricultural University","ror":"https://ror.org/04v3ywz14","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I52158045"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jahangir Khan","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Geographic Information Engineering, College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, East Campus, Beijing 100083, China"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Geographic Information Engineering, College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, East Campus, Beijing 100083, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I52158045"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5102940284"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I52158045"],"apc_list":{"value":2500,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":2707},"apc_paid":{"value":2500,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":2707},"fwci":2.9532,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":77,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.90104008,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":90,"max":100},"biblio":{"volume":"8","issue":"9","first_page":"690","last_page":"690"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11186","display_name":"Hydrology and Drought Analysis","score":0.9997000098228455,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11186","display_name":"Hydrology and Drought Analysis","score":0.9997000098228455,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":0.9973000288009644,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10111","display_name":"Remote Sensing in Agriculture","score":0.995199978351593,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2303","display_name":"Ecology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/autoregressive-integrated-moving-average","display_name":"Autoregressive integrated moving average","score":0.9246448278427124},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/environmental-science","display_name":"Environmental science","score":0.6152558326721191},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/advanced-very-high-resolution-radiometer","display_name":"Advanced very-high-resolution radiometer","score":0.5414339303970337},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/vegetation","display_name":"Vegetation (pathology)","score":0.4972391426563263},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/index","display_name":"Index (typography)","score":0.49689868092536926},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/pixel","display_name":"Pixel","score":0.4508861303329468},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climatology","display_name":"Climatology","score":0.4484538733959198},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/meteorology","display_name":"Meteorology","score":0.44573450088500977},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/time-series","display_name":"Time series","score":0.3553142845630646},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.26610037684440613},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/geography","display_name":"Geography","score":0.25282174348831177},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.22404420375823975},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.19162887334823608},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/geology","display_name":"Geology","score":0.09533563256263733}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C24338571","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2566298","display_name":"Autoregressive integrated moving average","level":3,"score":0.9246448278427124},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.6152558326721191},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777480484","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q300146","display_name":"Advanced very-high-resolution radiometer","level":3,"score":0.5414339303970337},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776133958","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7918366","display_name":"Vegetation (pathology)","level":2,"score":0.4972391426563263},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777382242","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6017816","display_name":"Index (typography)","level":2,"score":0.49689868092536926},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C160633673","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q355198","display_name":"Pixel","level":2,"score":0.4508861303329468},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49204034","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52139","display_name":"Climatology","level":1,"score":0.4484538733959198},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.44573450088500977},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.3553142845630646},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.26610037684440613},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.25282174348831177},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.22404420375823975},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.19162887334823608},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127313418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1069","display_name":"Geology","level":0,"score":0.09533563256263733},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C31972630","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q844240","display_name":"Computer vision","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C146978453","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3798668","display_name":"Aerospace engineering","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C136764020","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q466","display_name":"World Wide Web","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C19269812","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q26540","display_name":"Satellite","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C142724271","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7208","display_name":"Pathology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.3390/rs8090690","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/rs8090690","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/8/9/690/pdf?version=1471957339","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S43295729","display_name":"Remote Sensing","issn_l":"2072-4292","issn":["2072-4292"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Remote Sensing","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:f98484be616241538e6c46f5a4c43a8a","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/f98484be616241538e6c46f5a4c43a8a","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S112646816","display_name":"SHILAP Revista de lepidopterolog\u00eda","issn_l":"0300-5267","issn":["0300-5267","2340-4078"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Remote Sensing, Vol 8, Iss 9, p 690 (2016)","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:mdpi.com:/2072-4292/8/9/690/","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs8090690","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400947","display_name":"MDPI (MDPI AG)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4210097602","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (Switzerland)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210097602"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Remote Sensing","raw_type":"Text"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/rs8090690","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/rs8090690","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/8/9/690/pdf?version=1471957339","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S43295729","display_name":"Remote Sensing","issn_l":"2072-4292","issn":["2072-4292"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Remote Sensing","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G2959439810","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"CX(14)5073","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320309870","funder_display_name":"Jiangsu Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Fund"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G4310144509","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"41401416","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321001","funder_display_name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320309870","display_name":"Jiangsu Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Fund","ror":"https://ror.org/0335n2618"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321001","display_name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","ror":"https://ror.org/01h0zpd94"}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2512103537.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2512103537.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":56,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1938057060","https://openalex.org/W1963718895","https://openalex.org/W1978835122","https://openalex.org/W1980595709","https://openalex.org/W1984306404","https://openalex.org/W1985394156","https://openalex.org/W1985857142","https://openalex.org/W1986143844","https://openalex.org/W1987290209","https://openalex.org/W1989279348","https://openalex.org/W1990839466","https://openalex.org/W2023317055","https://openalex.org/W2024028570","https://openalex.org/W2025305089","https://openalex.org/W2026694046","https://openalex.org/W2027176053","https://openalex.org/W2032013744","https://openalex.org/W2035961696","https://openalex.org/W2037058807","https://openalex.org/W2037464623","https://openalex.org/W2040228818","https://openalex.org/W2056845648","https://openalex.org/W2060016145","https://openalex.org/W2065188920","https://openalex.org/W2068371905","https://openalex.org/W2071776755","https://openalex.org/W2073162648","https://openalex.org/W2077077296","https://openalex.org/W2079605058","https://openalex.org/W2082327374","https://openalex.org/W2084954644","https://openalex.org/W2086769157","https://openalex.org/W2087325533","https://openalex.org/W2093062312","https://openalex.org/W2104157175","https://openalex.org/W2105027753","https://openalex.org/W2107543999","https://openalex.org/W2108452937","https://openalex.org/W2110614570","https://openalex.org/W2123810914","https://openalex.org/W2136756941","https://openalex.org/W2142635246","https://openalex.org/W2147041502","https://openalex.org/W2153179024","https://openalex.org/W2154083639","https://openalex.org/W2157245283","https://openalex.org/W2161881124","https://openalex.org/W2179738695","https://openalex.org/W2232732673","https://openalex.org/W2313953460","https://openalex.org/W2367377294","https://openalex.org/W2376683337","https://openalex.org/W6657024163","https://openalex.org/W6676473774","https://openalex.org/W6678606517","https://openalex.org/W6721460529"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3175321409","https://openalex.org/W4312561791","https://openalex.org/W2389894046","https://openalex.org/W2215717369","https://openalex.org/W2146461990","https://openalex.org/W4312309719","https://openalex.org/W4391216528","https://openalex.org/W2980748541","https://openalex.org/W4399581288","https://openalex.org/W4313123484"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"This":[0],"paper":[1],"works":[2],"on":[3,22,92],"the":[4,9,23,53,57,61,80,88,93,97,102,122,139,146,153,156,159,164,170,181,187,197,203,208,216,225,232,235,246,253,259,264,269,273,280,283,289,296,302,316],"agricultural":[5],"drought":[6,27,200,221,284],"forecasting":[7,178,205,222],"in":[8,72,116,212,231,237,242,263,268,315],"Guanzhong":[10],"Plain":[11,236],"of":[12,26,30,64,79,145,180,207,224,234,252,275,282,306],"China":[13],"using":[14],"Autoregressive":[15],"Integrated":[16],"Moving":[17],"Average":[18],"(ARIMA)":[19],"models":[20,55,141,162,183,210,227,255,277,298],"based":[21],"time":[24],"series":[25],"monitoring":[28,188,201,217,247],"results":[29,179,191,206,223,293],"Vegetation":[31],"Temperature":[32],"Condition":[33],"Index":[34],"(VTCI).":[35],"About":[36],"90":[37],"VTCI":[38,199],"images":[39],"derived":[40],"from":[41,56,82],"Advanced":[42],"Very":[43],"High":[44],"Resolution":[45],"Radiometer":[46],"(AVHRR)":[47],"data":[48],"were":[49,184],"selected":[50,160],"to":[51,60,69,84,152,196,278,312],"develop":[52],"ARIMA":[54,182,209,226,297],"erecting":[58],"stage":[59,63],"maturity":[62],"winter":[65],"wheat":[66],"(early":[67],"March":[68],"late":[70],"May":[71],"each":[73,117],"year":[74],"at":[75,109],"a":[76],"ten-day":[77],"interval)":[78],"years":[81],"2000":[83],"2009.":[85],"We":[86],"take":[87],"study":[89,98,103],"area":[90,104,148],"overlying":[91],"administration":[94],"map":[95],"around":[96],"area,":[99],"and":[100,131,137,169,267,304,308],"divide":[101],"into":[105],"17":[106,123,165],"parts":[107],"where":[108,121],"least":[110],"one":[111],"weather":[112,124],"station":[113],"is":[114,172,286],"located":[115,127],"part.":[118],"The":[119,177,190,219,249],"pixels":[120,144,166],"stations":[125],"are":[126,128,149,167,211,228,241,256],"firstly":[129],"chosen":[130],"studied":[132],"for":[133,142,155,163],"their":[134],"fitting":[135],"models,":[136,261],"then":[138],"best":[140,161],"all":[143],"whole":[147],"determined.":[150],"According":[151],"procedures":[154],"models\u2019":[157],"development,":[158],"identified":[168],"forecast":[171,301,313],"done":[173],"with":[174,186,194,215,245],"three":[175],"steps.":[176],"compared":[185],"ones.":[189,218,248],"show":[192],"that":[193,295],"reference":[195],"categorized":[198,204,220],"results,":[202],"good":[213,243],"agreement":[214],"more":[229],"severity":[230],"northeast":[233],"April":[238],"2009,":[239],"which":[240],"agreements":[244],"absolute":[250],"errors":[251],"AR(1)":[254,290],"lower":[257],"than":[258,288],"SARIMA":[260,276],"both":[262],"frequency":[265],"distributions":[266],"statistic":[270],"results.":[271],"However,":[272],"ability":[274],"detect":[279],"changes":[281],"situation":[285],"better":[287,300],"models.":[291],"These":[292],"indicate":[294],"can":[299,309],"category":[303],"extent":[305],"droughts":[307,314],"be":[310],"applied":[311],"Plain.":[317]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":12},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":10},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":10},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":9},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":13},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-04-09T08:11:56.329763","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
