{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4309736084","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14225872","title":"Improving Methodology for Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Forecasting in the Australian and the South Pacific Ocean Regions by Selecting and Averaging Models via Metropolis\u2013Gibbs Sampling","display_name":"Improving Methodology for Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Forecasting in the Australian and the South Pacific Ocean Regions by Selecting and Averaging Models via Metropolis\u2013Gibbs Sampling","publication_year":2022,"publication_date":"2022-11-19","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4309736084","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14225872"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/rs14225872","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14225872","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/14/22/5872/pdf?version=1669024416","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S43295729","display_name":"Remote Sensing","issn_l":"2072-4292","issn":["2072-4292"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Remote Sensing","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/14/22/5872/pdf?version=1669024416","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5032763896","display_name":"Guoqi Qian","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3818-0564"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I165779595","display_name":"University of Melbourne","ror":"https://ror.org/01ej9dk98","country_code":"AU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I165779595"]}],"countries":["AU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Guoqi Qian","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I165779595"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5080272906","display_name":"Lizhong Chen","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8326-6781"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I165779595","display_name":"University of Melbourne","ror":"https://ror.org/01ej9dk98","country_code":"AU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I165779595"]}],"countries":["AU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Lizhong Chen","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I165779595"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5089296916","display_name":"Yuriy Kuleshov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3241-1667"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I82951845","display_name":"RMIT University","ror":"https://ror.org/04ttjf776","country_code":"AU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I82951845"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1286406326","display_name":"Bureau of Meteorology","ror":"https://ror.org/04dkp1p98","country_code":"AU","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1286406326"]}],"countries":["AU"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Yuriy Kuleshov","raw_affiliation_strings":["Bureau of Meteorology, Docklands, VIC 3008, Australia","SPACE Research Centre, School of Science, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT University), Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Bureau of Meteorology, Docklands, VIC 3008, Australia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1286406326"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"SPACE Research Centre, School of Science, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT University), Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I82951845"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5089296916"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1286406326","https://openalex.org/I82951845"],"apc_list":{"value":2500,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":2707},"apc_paid":{"value":2500,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":2707},"fwci":0.27,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":2,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.55393381,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":95},"biblio":{"volume":"14","issue":"22","first_page":"5872","last_page":"5872"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11483","display_name":"Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research","score":0.9988999962806702,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11483","display_name":"Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research","score":0.9988999962806702,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11061","display_name":"Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing","score":0.9477999806404114,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1910","display_name":"Oceanography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":0.9265999794006348,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/tropical-cyclone","display_name":"Tropical cyclone","score":0.7669898867607117},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/predictability","display_name":"Predictability","score":0.6957223415374756},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/akaike-information-criterion","display_name":"Akaike information criterion","score":0.6151257753372192},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/meteorology","display_name":"Meteorology","score":0.48581433296203613},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/environmental-science","display_name":"Environmental science","score":0.464299738407135},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climatology","display_name":"Climatology","score":0.4621679484844208},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/gibbs-sampling","display_name":"Gibbs sampling","score":0.4447609484195709},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/model-selection","display_name":"Model selection","score":0.4146914482116699},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.4124927222728729},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.3487309217453003},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.2498399019241333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/geography","display_name":"Geography","score":0.16646793484687805},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/geology","display_name":"Geology","score":0.14546754956245422},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-probability","display_name":"Bayesian probability","score":0.08923676609992981}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C29141058","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8092","display_name":"Tropical cyclone","level":2,"score":0.7669898867607117},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C197640229","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2534066","display_name":"Predictability","level":2,"score":0.6957223415374756},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126674687","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1662573","display_name":"Akaike information criterion","level":2,"score":0.6151257753372192},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.48581433296203613},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.464299738407135},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49204034","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52139","display_name":"Climatology","level":1,"score":0.4621679484844208},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C158424031","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1191905","display_name":"Gibbs sampling","level":3,"score":0.4447609484195709},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C93959086","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6888345","display_name":"Model selection","level":2,"score":0.4146914482116699},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.4124927222728729},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.3487309217453003},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.2498399019241333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.16646793484687805},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127313418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1069","display_name":"Geology","level":0,"score":0.14546754956245422},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.08923676609992981}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.3390/rs14225872","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14225872","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/14/22/5872/pdf?version=1669024416","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S43295729","display_name":"Remote Sensing","issn_l":"2072-4292","issn":["2072-4292"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Remote Sensing","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:f3ff76d359d44af5b57513b76af19a73","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/f3ff76d359d44af5b57513b76af19a73","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S112646816","display_name":"SHILAP Revista de lepidopterolog\u00eda","issn_l":"0300-5267","issn":["0300-5267","2340-4078"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Remote Sensing, Vol 14, Iss 22, p 5872 (2022)","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:mdpi.com:/2072-4292/14/22/5872/","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs14225872","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400947","display_name":"MDPI (MDPI AG)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4210097602","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (Switzerland)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210097602"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Remote Sensing; Volume 14; Issue 22; Pages: 5872","raw_type":"Text"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/rs14225872","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14225872","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/14/22/5872/pdf?version=1669024416","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S43295729","display_name":"Remote Sensing","issn_l":"2072-4292","issn":["2072-4292"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Remote Sensing","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/14","score":0.8500000238418579,"display_name":"Life below water"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4309736084.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4309736084.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":46,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W171292237","https://openalex.org/W1968371014","https://openalex.org/W1979815308","https://openalex.org/W1982592840","https://openalex.org/W1982924275","https://openalex.org/W1985630797","https://openalex.org/W1994672023","https://openalex.org/W2005960251","https://openalex.org/W2008835826","https://openalex.org/W2042694936","https://openalex.org/W2048679312","https://openalex.org/W2053662510","https://openalex.org/W2086313908","https://openalex.org/W2113435709","https://openalex.org/W2127298220","https://openalex.org/W2130353720","https://openalex.org/W2133315577","https://openalex.org/W2136382164","https://openalex.org/W2142635246","https://openalex.org/W2149651484","https://openalex.org/W2158196600","https://openalex.org/W2168917063","https://openalex.org/W2176039828","https://openalex.org/W2276592852","https://openalex.org/W2279210827","https://openalex.org/W2516202537","https://openalex.org/W2565723299","https://openalex.org/W2590975713","https://openalex.org/W2792714435","https://openalex.org/W2801961936","https://openalex.org/W2895279794","https://openalex.org/W2915789632","https://openalex.org/W2990562562","https://openalex.org/W3020551003","https://openalex.org/W3044696062","https://openalex.org/W3082895276","https://openalex.org/W3214777049","https://openalex.org/W4231445449","https://openalex.org/W4248029705","https://openalex.org/W4280511204","https://openalex.org/W4292691288","https://openalex.org/W6606997615","https://openalex.org/W6672089217","https://openalex.org/W6678957605","https://openalex.org/W6730888236","https://openalex.org/W6776735030"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4283580396","https://openalex.org/W2166954039","https://openalex.org/W1982789243","https://openalex.org/W2056833274","https://openalex.org/W2114625140","https://openalex.org/W2006209093","https://openalex.org/W2783425804","https://openalex.org/W158814215","https://openalex.org/W2033907215","https://openalex.org/W2493515942"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"A":[0],"novel":[1],"model":[2],"selection":[3],"and":[4,19,33,39,64,100],"averaging":[5],"approach":[6,48,89],"is":[7,90,101],"proposed\u2014through":[8],"integrating":[9],"the":[10,16,20,31,34,46,59,65,73,79,87,120,160,167],"corrected":[11],"Akaike":[12],"information":[13],"criterion":[14],"(AICc),":[15],"Gibbs":[17],"sampler,":[18],"Poisson":[21,134],"regression":[22,135],"models,":[23,116],"to":[24,110,143],"improve":[25,144],"tropical":[26,53,154],"cyclone":[27,54,155],"seasonal":[28,156],"forecasting":[29,157],"in":[30],"Australian":[32],"South":[35],"Pacific":[36],"Ocean":[37],"regions":[38],"sub-regions.":[40],"It":[41],"has":[42],"been":[43],"found":[44],"by":[45,78],"new":[47,92],"that":[49,96,159],"indices":[50],"which":[51,126],"describe":[52],"inter-annual":[55],"variability":[56],"such":[57],"as":[58],"Dipole":[60],"Mode":[61],"Index":[62,69],"(DMI)":[63],"El":[66],"Ni\u00f1o":[67],"Modoki":[68],"(EMI)":[70],"are":[71,124,140],"among":[72],"most":[74,121],"important":[75,122],"predictors":[76,123],"used":[77,169],"selected":[80],"models.":[81,136],"The":[82],"core":[83],"computational":[84],"method":[85,162],"underlying":[86],"proposed":[88],"a":[91,117,129],"stochastic":[93],"search":[94],"algorithm":[95],"we":[97],"have":[98],"developed,":[99],"named":[102],"Metropolis\u2013Gibbs":[103],"random":[104],"scan":[105],"(MGRS).":[106],"By":[107],"applying":[108],"MGRS":[109],"minimize":[111],"AICc":[112,171],"over":[113],"all":[114],"candidate":[115],"set":[118],"of":[119,132,153],"identified":[125],"can":[127],"form":[128],"small":[130],"number":[131],"optimal":[133,138],"These":[137],"models":[139],"then":[141],"averaged":[142],"their":[145],"overall":[146],"predictability.":[147],"Results":[148],"from":[149],"our":[150],"case":[151],"study":[152],"show":[158],"MGRS-AICc":[161],"performs":[163],"significantly":[164],"better":[165],"than":[166],"commonly":[168],"step-wise":[170],"method.":[172]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2025-11-06T03:46:38.306776","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}