{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7147632887","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/info17040331","title":"Enhancing Multi-Level Spatio-Temporal Forecasting of Adjudicated Crime Occurrence Trends in Indonesia","display_name":"Enhancing Multi-Level Spatio-Temporal Forecasting of Adjudicated Crime Occurrence Trends in Indonesia","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-04-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7147632887","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/info17040331"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/info17040331","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/info17040331","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2078-2489/17/4/331/pdf?version=1775009277","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210219776","display_name":"Information","issn_l":"2078-2489","issn":["2078-2489"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Information","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2078-2489/17/4/331/pdf?version=1775009277","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5117535254","display_name":"Firman Arifman","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2800024422","display_name":"Universitas Wijaya Putra","ror":"https://ror.org/0380hzw75","country_code":"ID","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2800024422"]}],"countries":["ID"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Firman Arifman","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Computer Science, Nusa Putra University, Jakarta 10110, Indonesia"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0006-2298-3185","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Computer Science, Nusa Putra University, Jakarta 10110, Indonesia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2800024422"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5055331226","display_name":"Teddy Mantoro","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2534-809X"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2800024422","display_name":"Universitas Wijaya Putra","ror":"https://ror.org/0380hzw75","country_code":"ID","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2800024422"]}],"countries":["ID"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Teddy Mantoro","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Computer Science, Nusa Putra University, Jakarta 10110, Indonesia"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2534-809X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Computer Science, Nusa Putra University, Jakarta 10110, Indonesia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2800024422"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5057804144","display_name":"Media Anugerah Ayu","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6774-0850"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2800024422","display_name":"Universitas Wijaya Putra","ror":"https://ror.org/0380hzw75","country_code":"ID","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2800024422"]}],"countries":["ID"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Media Ayu","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Computer Science, Nusa Putra University, Jakarta 10110, Indonesia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Computer Science, Nusa Putra University, Jakarta 10110, Indonesia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2800024422"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5117535254"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2800024422"],"apc_list":{"value":1400,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":1515},"apc_paid":{"value":1400,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":1515},"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.54920978,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"17","issue":"4","first_page":"331","last_page":"331"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10574","display_name":"Crime Patterns and Interventions","score":0.9211000204086304,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10574","display_name":"Crime Patterns and Interventions","score":0.9211000204086304,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11838","display_name":"Crime, Illicit Activities, and Governance","score":0.006000000052154064,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11076","display_name":"Policing Practices and Perceptions","score":0.004399999976158142,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3320","display_name":"Political Science and International Relations"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/crime-analysis","display_name":"Crime analysis","score":0.5778999924659729},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/jaccard-index","display_name":"Jaccard index","score":0.4546999931335449},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/resource","display_name":"Resource (disambiguation)","score":0.3255999982357025},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/index","display_name":"Index (typography)","score":0.3192000091075897},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/geospatial-analysis","display_name":"Geospatial analysis","score":0.3034000098705292},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/spatial-analysis","display_name":"Spatial analysis","score":0.29420000314712524}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776876444","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2845200","display_name":"Crime analysis","level":2,"score":0.5778999924659729},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C203519979","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q865360","display_name":"Jaccard index","level":3,"score":0.4546999931335449},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.3971000015735626},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.34439998865127563},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C206345919","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q20380951","display_name":"Resource (disambiguation)","level":2,"score":0.3255999982357025},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777382242","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6017816","display_name":"Index (typography)","level":2,"score":0.3192000091075897},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C9770341","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1938983","display_name":"Geospatial analysis","level":2,"score":0.3034000098705292},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159620131","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1938983","display_name":"Spatial analysis","level":2,"score":0.29420000314712524},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C26517878","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q228039","display_name":"Key (lock)","level":2,"score":0.2791999876499176},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780262971","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q44554","display_name":"Law enforcement","level":2,"score":0.2782000005245209},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776949292","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q471855","display_name":"Jurisdiction","level":2,"score":0.25859999656677246},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162118730","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128453","display_name":"Actuarial science","level":1,"score":0.25839999318122864},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107826830","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q929380","display_name":"Environmental resource management","level":1,"score":0.2556999921798706},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C131676636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5282696","display_name":"Dispute resolution","level":2,"score":0.2556000053882599},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778476105","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q628539","display_name":"Workload","level":2,"score":0.25279998779296875},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C84525736","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q831366","display_name":"Decision tree","level":2,"score":0.25060001015663147}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.3390/info17040331","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/info17040331","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2078-2489/17/4/331/pdf?version=1775009277","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210219776","display_name":"Information","issn_l":"2078-2489","issn":["2078-2489"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Information","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:64588bfd7f41452aa6f91a58c9e889d7","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/64588bfd7f41452aa6f91a58c9e889d7","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Information, Vol 17, Iss 4, p 331 (2026)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/info17040331","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/info17040331","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2078-2489/17/4/331/pdf?version=1775009277","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210219776","display_name":"Information","issn_l":"2078-2489","issn":["2078-2489"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Information","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Peace, Justice and strong institutions","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16","score":0.48505887389183044}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7147632887.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7147632887.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":32,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1524886808","https://openalex.org/W1534327318","https://openalex.org/W2011461180","https://openalex.org/W2056712395","https://openalex.org/W2134553571","https://openalex.org/W2295598076","https://openalex.org/W2325408928","https://openalex.org/W2584186900","https://openalex.org/W2747599906","https://openalex.org/W2791059564","https://openalex.org/W2913346170","https://openalex.org/W3045353962","https://openalex.org/W3084405808","https://openalex.org/W3096721541","https://openalex.org/W3107975486","https://openalex.org/W3110391408","https://openalex.org/W3130255873","https://openalex.org/W3197772063","https://openalex.org/W3204760535","https://openalex.org/W4249855545","https://openalex.org/W4283375405","https://openalex.org/W4389903412","https://openalex.org/W4403492653","https://openalex.org/W4404459450","https://openalex.org/W4406021885","https://openalex.org/W4406158178","https://openalex.org/W4406246571","https://openalex.org/W4408209071","https://openalex.org/W4410301219","https://openalex.org/W4412005090","https://openalex.org/W4414022612","https://openalex.org/W7117767580"],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Indonesia":[0,46],"faces":[1],"persistent":[2],"challenges":[3],"in":[4,19,142,146,220],"crime":[5,21,39,115,132,151],"forecasting":[6],"and":[7,15,34,82,103,120,123,182,217],"judicial":[8,72,136,158,211],"resource":[9,212],"management,":[10],"compounded":[11],"by":[12],"chronic":[13],"underreporting":[14],"inconsistent":[16],"spatial":[17,92,189],"resolution":[18],"official":[20],"statistics.":[22],"In":[23],"this":[24],"study,":[25],"a":[26,57,66,154,162,193,203],"multi-level":[27],"spatio-temporal":[28],"machine":[29],"learning":[30],"framework":[31,201],"is":[32,63],"developed":[33],"applied":[35],"to":[36,50,69,144],"95,666":[37],"adjudicated":[38,114,131,150],"records":[40,152],"from":[41,140],"the":[42,54,87,171,183],"Supreme":[43],"Court":[44],"of":[45,77,80,84,128,157,165,185,195],"spanning":[47],"January":[48],"2023":[49],"June":[51],"2024.":[52],"Following":[53],"CRISP-DM":[55],"methodology,":[56],"hybrid":[58],"STL-XGBoost":[59],"v.":[60],"3.2.0":[61],"model":[62],"trained":[64],"on":[65,86],"chronological":[67],"split":[68],"forecast":[70],"daily":[71],"caseloads,":[73],"achieving":[74],"an":[75],"R2":[76],"0.8070,":[78],"MAE":[79],"16.52,":[81],"sMAPE":[83],"9.76%":[85],"held-out":[88],"test":[89],"set.":[90],"DBSCAN":[91],"clustering,":[93],"parameterized":[94],"via":[95],"k-distance":[96],"plot":[97],"analysis":[98,127],"(\u03f5=0.3\u2218,":[99],"minPts":[100],"=":[101],"3)":[102],"validated":[104],"through":[105],"Jaccard":[106],"Similarity":[107],"Index":[108],"sensitivity":[109],"analysis,":[110],"identifies":[111],"29":[112],"distinct":[113],"hubs":[116],"concentrated":[117],"along":[118],"Java":[119],"Sumatra\u2019s":[121],"urban":[122],"transit":[124],"corridors.":[125],"Comparative":[126],"reported":[129],"versus":[130],"data":[133],"reveals":[134],"systematic":[135],"funnel":[137],"attrition":[138],"ranging":[139],"199.12%":[141],"Riau":[143],"2436.02%":[145],"Papua,":[147],"establishing":[148],"that":[149,175,191],"provide":[153],"reliable":[155],"indicator":[156],"workload":[159],"rather":[160],"than":[161],"comprehensive":[163],"measure":[164],"social":[166],"deviance.":[167],"Key":[168],"limitations,":[169],"including":[170],"18-month":[172],"observation":[173],"window":[174],"may":[176],"not":[177],"capture":[178],"long-term":[179],"policy":[180],"shifts":[181],"use":[184],"city":[186,218],"centroids":[187],"as":[188],"proxies":[190],"introduces":[192],"degree":[194],"ecological":[196],"fallacy,":[197],"are":[198],"acknowledged.":[199],"The":[200],"offers":[202],"scalable,":[204],"interpretable":[205],"decision":[206],"support":[207],"tool":[208],"for":[209],"evidence-based":[210],"planning":[213],"across":[214],"national,":[215],"provincial,":[216],"scales":[219],"Indonesia.":[221]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-05-21T06:26:12.895304","created_date":"2026-04-02T00:00:00"}
