{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4398178243","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/info15060291","title":"Predictions from Generative Artificial Intelligence Models: Towards a New Benchmark in Forecasting Practice","display_name":"Predictions from Generative Artificial Intelligence Models: Towards a New Benchmark in Forecasting Practice","publication_year":2024,"publication_date":"2024-05-21","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4398178243","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/info15060291"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/info15060291","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/info15060291","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2078-2489/15/6/291/pdf?version=1716283999","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210219776","display_name":"Information","issn_l":"2078-2489","issn":["2078-2489"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Information","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2078-2489/15/6/291/pdf?version=1716283999","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5037960046","display_name":"Hossein Hassani","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0897-8663"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1317774081","display_name":"International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis","ror":"https://ror.org/02wfhk785","country_code":"AT","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1317774081"]}],"countries":["AT"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Hossein Hassani","raw_affiliation_strings":["IIASA\u2014International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"IIASA\u2014International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1317774081"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5068106502","display_name":"Emmanuel Sirimal Silva","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3851-9230"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I195939026","display_name":"Glasgow Caledonian University","ror":"https://ror.org/03dvm1235","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I195939026"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Emmanuel Sirimal Silva","raw_affiliation_strings":["Glasgow School for Business and Society, Glasgow Caledonian University, Glasgow G4 0BA, UK"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Glasgow School for Business and Society, Glasgow Caledonian University, Glasgow G4 0BA, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I195939026"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5037960046"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1317774081"],"apc_list":{"value":1400,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":1515},"apc_paid":{"value":1400,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":1515},"fwci":7.2643,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":15,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.97251652,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":96,"max":100},"biblio":{"volume":"15","issue":"6","first_page":"291","last_page":"291"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9951000213623047,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9951000213623047,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11052","display_name":"Energy Load and Power Forecasting","score":0.9850000143051147,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11326","display_name":"Stock Market Forecasting Methods","score":0.9822999835014343,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/benchmark","display_name":"Benchmark (surveying)","score":0.814195990562439},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/generative-grammar","display_name":"Generative grammar","score":0.7515711784362793},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.6261969208717346},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.5542845726013184},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/machine-learning","display_name":"Machine learning","score":0.4861747622489929},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/generative-model","display_name":"Generative model","score":0.45473724603652954},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/geography","display_name":"Geography","score":0.06343868374824524}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185798385","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1161707","display_name":"Benchmark (surveying)","level":2,"score":0.814195990562439},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39890363","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36108","display_name":"Generative grammar","level":2,"score":0.7515711784362793},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.6261969208717346},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5542845726013184},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.4861747622489929},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C167966045","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5532625","display_name":"Generative model","level":3,"score":0.45473724603652954},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.06343868374824524},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C13280743","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q131089","display_name":"Geodesy","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":4,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.3390/info15060291","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/info15060291","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2078-2489/15/6/291/pdf?version=1716283999","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210219776","display_name":"Information","issn_l":"2078-2489","issn":["2078-2489"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Information","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pure.iiasa.ac.at:19848","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":null,"pdf_url":"https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19848/1/information-15-00291.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401423","display_name":"IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1317774081","host_organization_name":"International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1317774081"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"public-domain","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/public-domain","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"Article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:researchonline.gcu.ac.uk:publications/dc6baf18-e0fb-4ee6-8e95-343836f702db","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://researchonline.gcu.ac.uk/en/publications/dc6baf18-e0fb-4ee6-8e95-343836f702db","pdf_url":"https://researchonline.gcu.ac.uk/ws/files/87346427/87346359.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402566","display_name":"ResearchOnline (Glasgow Caledonian University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I195939026","host_organization_name":"Glasgow Caledonian University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I195939026"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Hassani, H & Silva, E S 2024, 'Predictions from generative artificial intelligence models: towards a new benchmark in forecasting practice', Information, vol. 15, no. 6, 291. https://doi.org/10.3390/info15060291","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:a4c24493eb3f4f6fa6fb7b4b4f745fea","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/a4c24493eb3f4f6fa6fb7b4b4f745fea","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S112646816","display_name":"SHILAP Revista de lepidopterolog\u00eda","issn_l":"0300-5267","issn":["0300-5267","2340-4078"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Information, Vol 15, Iss 6, p 291 (2024)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/info15060291","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/info15060291","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2078-2489/15/6/291/pdf?version=1716283999","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210219776","display_name":"Information","issn_l":"2078-2489","issn":["2078-2489"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Information","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.4699999988079071,"display_name":"Quality Education","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/4"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4398178243.pdf"},"referenced_works_count":36,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1875542790","https://openalex.org/W1977698057","https://openalex.org/W2001992115","https://openalex.org/W2045199291","https://openalex.org/W2109316012","https://openalex.org/W2144085487","https://openalex.org/W2144717556","https://openalex.org/W2167036165","https://openalex.org/W2283799018","https://openalex.org/W2585667993","https://openalex.org/W2587559554","https://openalex.org/W2747599906","https://openalex.org/W2794778778","https://openalex.org/W2798056406","https://openalex.org/W2902499798","https://openalex.org/W3016094225","https://openalex.org/W3022643593","https://openalex.org/W3132782787","https://openalex.org/W3140854437","https://openalex.org/W3176723190","https://openalex.org/W4205539948","https://openalex.org/W4206189171","https://openalex.org/W4318014888","https://openalex.org/W4320495408","https://openalex.org/W4321351832","https://openalex.org/W4361002760","https://openalex.org/W4365512576","https://openalex.org/W4379259169","https://openalex.org/W4379598302","https://openalex.org/W4384154918","https://openalex.org/W4386366783","https://openalex.org/W4386425723","https://openalex.org/W4386867830","https://openalex.org/W4387610430","https://openalex.org/W4390427697","https://openalex.org/W6850507425"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2961085424","https://openalex.org/W4306674287","https://openalex.org/W3046775127","https://openalex.org/W4365211920","https://openalex.org/W3107602296","https://openalex.org/W4394896187","https://openalex.org/W3170094116","https://openalex.org/W4386462264","https://openalex.org/W3014948380","https://openalex.org/W4364306694"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"This":[0],"paper":[1],"aims":[2],"to":[3,95,165],"determine":[4],"whether":[5],"there":[6],"is":[7],"a":[8,12,58,120,199],"case":[9],"for":[10,15,27,42],"promoting":[11,176],"new":[13],"benchmark":[14],"forecasting":[16,47,85,158,185],"practice":[17],"via":[18,36],"the":[19,29,40,75,127,140,147,154,161],"innovative":[20],"application":[21],"of":[22,46,61,129,149,157],"generative":[23],"artificial":[24],"intelligence":[25],"(Gen-AI)":[26],"predicting":[28],"future.":[30],"Today,":[31],"forecasts":[32,62,67,98,104,117,130,177],"can":[33,102,134],"be":[34],"generated":[35],"Gen-AI":[37,64,100,132,179,197],"models":[38,65,73,101,133,180],"without":[39],"need":[41],"an":[43],"in-depth":[44],"understanding":[45],"theory,":[48],"practice,":[49],"or":[50],"coding.":[51],"Therefore,":[52,170],"using":[53],"three":[54],"datasets,":[55],"we":[56,90,171],"present":[57],"comparative":[59],"analysis":[60],"from":[63,68,74,99,105,131,178],"against":[66,193],"seven":[69],"univariate":[70],"and":[71,83,115,196],"automated":[72],"forecast":[76,162],"package":[77],"in":[78,183,202],"R,":[79],"covering":[80],"both":[81],"parametric":[82],"non-parametric":[84],"techniques.":[86],"In":[87],"some":[88,173,203],"cases,":[89],"find":[91,172],"statistically":[92],"significant":[93],"evidence":[94,174],"conclude":[96],"that":[97,126],"outperform":[103],"popular":[106],"benchmarks":[107,182],"like":[108],"seasonal":[109,111],"ARIMA,":[110],"na\u00efve,":[112],"exponential":[113],"smoothing,":[114],"Theta":[116],"(to":[118],"name":[119],"few).":[121],"Our":[122],"findings":[123],"also":[124,145],"indicate":[125],"accuracy":[128,163],"vary":[135],"not":[136],"only":[137],"based":[138],"on":[139,146],"underlying":[141],"data":[142],"structure":[143],"but":[144],"quality":[148],"prompt":[150],"engineering":[151],"(thus":[152],"highlighting":[153],"continued":[155],"importance":[156],"education),":[159],"with":[160],"appearing":[164],"improve":[166],"at":[167,188],"longer":[168],"horizons.":[169],"towards":[175],"as":[181],"future":[184],"practice.":[186],"However,":[187],"present,":[189],"users":[190],"are":[191],"cautioned":[192],"reliability":[194],"issues":[195],"being":[198],"black":[200],"box":[201],"cases.":[204]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":3}],"updated_date":"2026-04-06T07:47:59.780226","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
