{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2608670611","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi6040124","title":"Forecasting Urban Vacancy Dynamics in a Shrinking City: A Land Transformation Model","display_name":"Forecasting Urban Vacancy Dynamics in a Shrinking City: A Land Transformation Model","publication_year":2017,"publication_date":"2017-04-20","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2608670611","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi6040124","mag":"2608670611"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/ijgi6040124","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi6040124","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2220-9964/6/4/124/pdf?version=1492694149","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764431341","display_name":"ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information","issn_l":"2220-9964","issn":["2220-9964"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2220-9964/6/4/124/pdf?version=1492694149","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5027654846","display_name":"Jaekyung Lee","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8970-2794"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I91045830","display_name":"Texas A&M University","ror":"https://ror.org/01f5ytq51","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I91045830"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jaekyung Lee","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Landscape Architecture and Urban Planning, Texas A&amp;M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Landscape Architecture and Urban Planning, Texas A&amp;M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I91045830"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5077358456","display_name":"Galen Newman","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4277-5931"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I91045830","display_name":"Texas A&M University","ror":"https://ror.org/01f5ytq51","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I91045830"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Galen Newman","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Landscape Architecture and Urban Planning, Texas A&amp;M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Landscape Architecture and Urban Planning, Texas A&amp;M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I91045830"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5077358456"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I91045830"],"apc_list":{"value":1700,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":1893},"apc_paid":{"value":1700,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":1893},"fwci":20.3639,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":45,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.98943728,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":94,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"6","issue":"4","first_page":"124","last_page":"124"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12502","display_name":"Urbanization and City Planning","score":0.9998000264167786,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3322","display_name":"Urban Studies"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12502","display_name":"Urbanization and City Planning","score":0.9998000264167786,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3322","display_name":"Urban Studies"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10226","display_name":"Land Use and Ecosystem Services","score":0.9965000152587891,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12783","display_name":"Migration, Aging, and Tourism Studies","score":0.9577000141143799,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3317","display_name":"Demography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/resizing","display_name":"Resizing","score":0.591289758682251},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/land-use","display_name":"Land use","score":0.5358736515045166},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economic-geography","display_name":"Economic geography","score":0.533234179019928},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/geography","display_name":"Geography","score":0.5154041051864624},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/urban-planning","display_name":"Urban planning","score":0.4817219078540802},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/proxy","display_name":"Proxy (statistics)","score":0.4421072006225586},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/land-use-planning","display_name":"Land-use planning","score":0.420148104429245},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/environmental-planning","display_name":"Environmental planning","score":0.32444003224372864},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/natural-resource-economics","display_name":"Natural resource economics","score":0.32314789295196533},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economics","display_name":"Economics","score":0.23187249898910522},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ecology","display_name":"Ecology","score":0.09925195574760437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.08908972144126892}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C56281022","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11308039","display_name":"Resizing","level":3,"score":0.591289758682251},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C4792198","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1165944","display_name":"Land use","level":2,"score":0.5358736515045166},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C26271046","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q187097","display_name":"Economic geography","level":1,"score":0.533234179019928},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.5154041051864624},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49545453","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q69883","display_name":"Urban planning","level":2,"score":0.4817219078540802},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780148112","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1432581","display_name":"Proxy (statistics)","level":2,"score":0.4421072006225586},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C184603391","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q60738778","display_name":"Land-use planning","level":3,"score":0.420148104429245},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C91375879","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q15473274","display_name":"Environmental planning","level":1,"score":0.32444003224372864},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C175605778","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3299701","display_name":"Natural resource economics","level":1,"score":0.32314789295196533},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.23187249898910522},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18903297","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7150","display_name":"Ecology","level":1,"score":0.09925195574760437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.08908972144126892},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2910001868","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q458","display_name":"European union","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105639569","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q582577","display_name":"Economic policy","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.3390/ijgi6040124","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi6040124","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2220-9964/6/4/124/pdf?version=1492694149","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764431341","display_name":"ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information","issn_l":"2220-9964","issn":["2220-9964"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:ca6ff18861eb4a7daf96a91025fd40c6","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/ca6ff18861eb4a7daf96a91025fd40c6","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, Vol 6, Iss 4, p 124 (2017)","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:mdpi.com:/2220-9964/6/4/124/","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijgi6040124","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400947","display_name":"MDPI (MDPI AG)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4210097602","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (Switzerland)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210097602"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information; Volume 6; Issue 4; Pages: 124","raw_type":"Text"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/ijgi6040124","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi6040124","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2220-9964/6/4/124/pdf?version=1492694149","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764431341","display_name":"ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information","issn_l":"2220-9964","issn":["2220-9964"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Sustainable cities and communities","score":0.699999988079071,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/11"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2608670611.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2608670611.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":68,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W92325452","https://openalex.org/W164480873","https://openalex.org/W1553505723","https://openalex.org/W1554285214","https://openalex.org/W1554663460","https://openalex.org/W1556429421","https://openalex.org/W1571538446","https://openalex.org/W1578453342","https://openalex.org/W1965501090","https://openalex.org/W1972360241","https://openalex.org/W1973193950","https://openalex.org/W1990179486","https://openalex.org/W1990613785","https://openalex.org/W1995793061","https://openalex.org/W2009852182","https://openalex.org/W2011438884","https://openalex.org/W2014901265","https://openalex.org/W2016577007","https://openalex.org/W2020469299","https://openalex.org/W2024200514","https://openalex.org/W2032318702","https://openalex.org/W2040892406","https://openalex.org/W2041588414","https://openalex.org/W2043398097","https://openalex.org/W2043971751","https://openalex.org/W2051512952","https://openalex.org/W2058795793","https://openalex.org/W2060457670","https://openalex.org/W2062570953","https://openalex.org/W2072569462","https://openalex.org/W2073069756","https://openalex.org/W2076628299","https://openalex.org/W2085863139","https://openalex.org/W2086253999","https://openalex.org/W2097467169","https://openalex.org/W2101187040","https://openalex.org/W2104896032","https://openalex.org/W2106041079","https://openalex.org/W2108576337","https://openalex.org/W2120000166","https://openalex.org/W2120533912","https://openalex.org/W2122506788","https://openalex.org/W2127728347","https://openalex.org/W2135822449","https://openalex.org/W2144738205","https://openalex.org/W2146970855","https://openalex.org/W2153147956","https://openalex.org/W2156248359","https://openalex.org/W2156621475","https://openalex.org/W2170587758","https://openalex.org/W2171730709","https://openalex.org/W2255050806","https://openalex.org/W2325277567","https://openalex.org/W2404198674","https://openalex.org/W3020954644","https://openalex.org/W3124111029","https://openalex.org/W3125137378","https://openalex.org/W3143429387","https://openalex.org/W3207786986","https://openalex.org/W4246663362","https://openalex.org/W4388297464","https://openalex.org/W6606652813","https://openalex.org/W6633092719","https://openalex.org/W6633111880","https://openalex.org/W6634468203","https://openalex.org/W6676354791","https://openalex.org/W6713172339","https://openalex.org/W6745354640"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2354123493","https://openalex.org/W2389612660","https://openalex.org/W2378443735","https://openalex.org/W2518081057","https://openalex.org/W581761423","https://openalex.org/W893814774","https://openalex.org/W2375970887","https://openalex.org/W2794009192","https://openalex.org/W3133294077","https://openalex.org/W1898428141"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"In":[0,42,132],"the":[1,118,135,172,194,214],"past":[2],"two":[3],"centuries,":[4],"many":[5,45,80],"American":[6],"urban":[7,99,128,150,157,202],"areas":[8],"have":[9,49],"experienced":[10,50],"significant":[11,51],"expansion":[12],"in":[13,60,69,159],"both":[14],"populating":[15],"and":[16,24,57,62,71,78,112,130,182,207],"depopulating":[17],"cities.":[18],"The":[19],"pursuit":[20],"of":[21,81,120,137],"bigger,":[22],"faster,":[23],"more":[25,121],"growth-oriented":[26,88],"planning":[27,89],"parallels":[28],"a":[29,39,144,160,167,197],"situation":[30],"where":[31],"municipal":[32],"decline":[33,77,129,158],"has":[34],"also":[35],"been":[36],"recognized":[37],"as":[38,143,166],"global":[40],"epidemic.":[41],"recent":[43],"decades":[44],"older":[46],"industrial":[47],"cities":[48],"depopulation,":[52,79],"job":[53],"loss,":[54],"economic":[55,76],"decline,":[56],"massive":[58],"increases":[59],"vacant":[61,164,203],"abandoned":[63],"properties":[64],"due":[65,91],"primarily":[66],"to":[67,93,95,106,147,186,200,212,218],"losses":[68],"industry":[70],"relocating":[72],"populations.":[73],"Despite":[74],"continuous":[75],"these":[82],"so-called":[83],"\u2018shrinking":[84],"cities\u2019":[85],"still":[86],"chase":[87],"policies,":[90],"partially":[92],"inabilities":[94],"accurately":[96],"predict":[97],"future":[98,114],"growth/decline":[100],"patterns.":[101],"This":[102],"capability":[103],"is":[104,141,196],"critical":[105],"understanding":[107],"land":[108,123,151,165,188,204],"use":[109,124,152,189],"alternation":[110],"patterns":[111],"predicting":[113],"possible":[115],"scenarios":[116],"for":[117],"development":[119],"proactive":[122],"policies":[125],"dealing":[126],"with":[127],"regeneration.":[131],"this":[133],"research,":[134],"city":[136],"Chicago,":[138],"Illinois,":[139],"USA":[140],"used":[142],"case":[145],"site":[146],"test":[148],"an":[149],"change":[153],"model":[154],"that":[155,193],"predicts":[156],"shrinking":[161],"city,":[162],"using":[163],"proxy.":[168],"Our":[169],"approach":[170],"employs":[171],"Land":[173],"Transformation":[174],"Model":[175],"(LTM),":[176],"which":[177],"combines":[178],"Geographic":[179],"Information":[180],"Systems":[181],"artificial":[183],"neural":[184],"networks":[185],"forecast":[187],"change.":[190],"Results":[191],"indicate":[192],"LTM":[195],"good":[198],"resource":[199],"simulate":[201],"changes.":[205],"Mobility":[206],"housing":[208],"market":[209],"conditions":[210],"seem":[211],"be":[213],"primary":[215],"variables":[216],"contributing":[217],"decline.":[219]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-07-30T17:31:21.811387","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
