{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4390176403","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/e26010016","title":"Bayesian Forecasting of Bounded Poisson Distributed Time Series","display_name":"Bayesian Forecasting of Bounded Poisson Distributed Time Series","publication_year":2023,"publication_date":"2023-12-22","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4390176403","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/e26010016","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38248142"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/e26010016","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/e26010016","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/26/1/16/pdf?version=1703254003","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S195231649","display_name":"Entropy","issn_l":"1099-4300","issn":["1099-4300"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Entropy","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/26/1/16/pdf?version=1703254003","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5033497364","display_name":"Feng-Chi Liu","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0385-9836"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4880106","display_name":"Feng Chia University","ror":"https://ror.org/05vhczg54","country_code":"TW","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4880106"]}],"countries":["TW"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Feng-Chi Liu","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Statistics, Feng Chia University, Taichung 40724, Taiwan"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0385-9836","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Statistics, Feng Chia University, Taichung 40724, Taiwan","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4880106"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5030640403","display_name":"Cathy W. S. Chen","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8727-8168"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4880106","display_name":"Feng Chia University","ror":"https://ror.org/05vhczg54","country_code":"TW","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4880106"]}],"countries":["TW"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Cathy W. S. Chen","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Statistics, Feng Chia University, Taichung 40724, Taiwan"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8727-8168","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Statistics, Feng Chia University, Taichung 40724, Taiwan","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4880106"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5111099807","display_name":"Cheng-Ying Ho","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4880106","display_name":"Feng Chia University","ror":"https://ror.org/05vhczg54","country_code":"TW","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4880106"]}],"countries":["TW"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Cheng-Ying Ho","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Statistics, Feng Chia University, Taichung 40724, Taiwan"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Statistics, Feng Chia University, Taichung 40724, Taiwan","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4880106"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5033497364"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4880106"],"apc_list":{"value":2000,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":2165},"apc_paid":{"value":2000,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":2165},"fwci":0.3157,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":1,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.65608329,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":91,"max":95},"biblio":{"volume":"26","issue":"1","first_page":"16","last_page":"16"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10243","display_name":"Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference","score":0.9930999875068665,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10243","display_name":"Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference","score":0.9930999875068665,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9916999936103821,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12120","display_name":"Air Quality Monitoring and Forecasting","score":0.989300012588501,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2305","display_name":"Environmental Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bounded-function","display_name":"Bounded function","score":0.6561317443847656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/series","display_name":"Series (stratigraphy)","score":0.621787428855896},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/autoregressive-model","display_name":"Autoregressive model","score":0.6071460247039795},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-probability","display_name":"Bayesian probability","score":0.5938659906387329},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.5370951890945435},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.5282679796218872},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/poisson-distribution","display_name":"Poisson distribution","score":0.5233470797538757},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/time-series","display_name":"Time series","score":0.47579917311668396},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.40247422456741333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.37936246395111084}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C34388435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2267362","display_name":"Bounded function","level":2,"score":0.6561317443847656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C143724316","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q312468","display_name":"Series (stratigraphy)","level":2,"score":0.621787428855896},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159877910","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2202883","display_name":"Autoregressive model","level":2,"score":0.6071460247039795},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.5938659906387329},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.5370951890945435},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5282679796218872},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C100906024","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q205692","display_name":"Poisson distribution","level":2,"score":0.5233470797538757},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.47579917311668396},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.40247422456741333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.37936246395111084},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151730666","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7205","display_name":"Paleontology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134306372","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7754","display_name":"Mathematical analysis","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":4,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.3390/e26010016","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/e26010016","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/26/1/16/pdf?version=1703254003","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S195231649","display_name":"Entropy","issn_l":"1099-4300","issn":["1099-4300"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Entropy","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:38248142","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38248142","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)","raw_type":null},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:11154509","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/11154509","pdf_url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11154509/pdf/entropy-26-00016.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Entropy (Basel)","raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:9110f74897fa40ca9c996986259f1bba","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/9110f74897fa40ca9c996986259f1bba","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Entropy, Vol 26, Iss 1, p 16 (2023)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/e26010016","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/e26010016","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/26/1/16/pdf?version=1703254003","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S195231649","display_name":"Entropy","issn_l":"1099-4300","issn":["1099-4300"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Entropy","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.4699999988079071,"display_name":"Decent work and economic growth","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/8"}],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G5304129224","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"NSTC 112-2118-M-035-002-","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320322795","funder_display_name":"Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G6309491582","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"NSTC 112-2118-M-035-001-MY3","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320322795","funder_display_name":"Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320322795","display_name":"Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan","ror":"https://ror.org/02kv4zf79"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320331164","display_name":"National Science and Technology Council","ror":"https://ror.org/00wnb9798"}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4390176403.pdf"},"referenced_works_count":26,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1483015670","https://openalex.org/W1898999968","https://openalex.org/W1966089916","https://openalex.org/W1982288993","https://openalex.org/W1985284584","https://openalex.org/W1995765128","https://openalex.org/W2034870454","https://openalex.org/W2044121999","https://openalex.org/W2081978207","https://openalex.org/W2086290220","https://openalex.org/W2099726211","https://openalex.org/W2119634512","https://openalex.org/W2122111042","https://openalex.org/W2133454617","https://openalex.org/W2255141750","https://openalex.org/W2560551712","https://openalex.org/W2960305194","https://openalex.org/W3198832112","https://openalex.org/W3198873822","https://openalex.org/W4234580748","https://openalex.org/W4241983685","https://openalex.org/W4313457063","https://openalex.org/W4380321731","https://openalex.org/W4388289977","https://openalex.org/W4388320111","https://openalex.org/W6628867289"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2171218219","https://openalex.org/W1972271943","https://openalex.org/W2150410159","https://openalex.org/W4327525404","https://openalex.org/W4287185323","https://openalex.org/W3150905897","https://openalex.org/W1520183331","https://openalex.org/W2734842993","https://openalex.org/W2168175994","https://openalex.org/W2349019353"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"This":[0,28],"research":[1],"models":[2,90,156],"and":[3,25,39,54,63,102,116,152],"forecasts":[4],"bounded":[5,38,67],"ordinal":[6,83],"time":[7,31,84],"series":[8,32,85],"data":[9,33],"that":[10,107,164],"can":[11],"appear":[12],"in":[13,65,81,99,150,173],"various":[14],"contexts,":[15],"such":[16,50,82],"as":[17,51,130],"air":[18],"quality":[19],"index":[20],"(AQI)":[21],"levels,":[22],"economic":[23],"situations,":[24],"credit":[26],"ratings.":[27],"class":[29],"of":[30,43,120,143],"is":[34],"characterized":[35],"by":[36],"being":[37],"exhibiting":[40],"a":[41,47,96],"concentration":[42],"large":[44],"probabilities":[45],"on":[46],"few":[48],"categories,":[49],"states":[52],"0":[53],"1.":[55],"We":[56,87],"propose":[57],"using":[58],"Bayesian":[59,100],"methods":[60,110],"for":[61,157,178],"modeling":[62],"forecasting":[64],"zero-one-inflated":[66],"Poisson":[68],"autoregressive":[69],"(ZOBPAR)":[70],"models,":[71],"which":[72],"are":[73,123],"specifically":[74],"designed":[75],"to":[76,91,126],"capture":[77],"the":[78,108,117,127,131,136,158,165,170,174,179],"dynamic":[79],"changes":[80],"data.":[86],"innovatively":[88],"extend":[89],"incorporate":[92],"exogenous":[93],"variables,":[94],"marking":[95],"new":[97],"direction":[98],"inferences":[101],"forecasting.":[103],"Simulation":[104],"studies":[105],"demonstrate":[106],"proposed":[109,166],"accurately":[111],"estimate":[112],"all":[113],"unknown":[114],"parameters,":[115],"posterior":[118],"means":[119],"parameter":[121],"estimates":[122],"robustly":[124],"close":[125],"actual":[128],"values":[129],"sample":[132],"size":[133],"increases.":[134],"In":[135],"empirical":[137],"study":[138],"we":[139],"investigate":[140],"three":[141,148],"datasets":[142],"daily":[144],"AQI":[145,171],"levels":[146,172],"from":[147],"stations":[149],"Taiwan":[151],"consider":[153],"five":[154],"competing":[155],"real":[159],"examples.":[160],"The":[161],"results":[162],"exhibit":[163],"method":[167],"reasonably":[168],"predicts":[169],"testing":[175],"period,":[176],"especially":[177],"Miaoli":[180],"station.":[181]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-05-21T06:26:12.895304","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}