{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4283803602","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/e24070929","title":"Forecasting COVID-19 Epidemic Trends by Combining a Neural Network with Rt Estimation","display_name":"Forecasting COVID-19 Epidemic Trends by Combining a Neural Network with Rt Estimation","publication_year":2022,"publication_date":"2022-07-04","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4283803602","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/e24070929","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35885152"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/e24070929","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/e24070929","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/24/7/929/pdf?version=1657174969","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S195231649","display_name":"Entropy","issn_l":"1099-4300","issn":["1099-4300"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Entropy","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/24/7/929/pdf?version=1657174969","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5024240784","display_name":"Pietro Cinaglia","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2237-6984"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I36443711","display_name":"Magna Graecia University","ror":"https://ror.org/0530bdk91","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I36443711"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Pietro Cinaglia","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Health Sciences, Magna Graecia University of Catanzaro, 88100 Catanzaro, Italy"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Health Sciences, Magna Graecia University of Catanzaro, 88100 Catanzaro, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I36443711"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5004845138","display_name":"Mario Cannataro","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1502-2387"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I36443711","display_name":"Magna Graecia University","ror":"https://ror.org/0530bdk91","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I36443711"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mario Cannataro","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, Magna Graecia University of Catanzaro, 88100 Catanzaro, Italy"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, Magna Graecia University of Catanzaro, 88100 Catanzaro, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I36443711"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5024240784"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I36443711"],"apc_list":{"value":2000,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":2165},"apc_paid":{"value":2000,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":2165},"fwci":2.8815,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":21,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.90928993,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":97,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"24","issue":"7","first_page":"929","last_page":"929"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11775","display_name":"COVID-19 diagnosis using AI","score":0.9976999759674072,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2741","display_name":"Radiology, Nuclear Medicine and Imaging"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11775","display_name":"COVID-19 diagnosis using AI","score":0.9976999759674072,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2741","display_name":"Radiology, Nuclear Medicine and Imaging"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9958000183105469,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11512","display_name":"Anomaly Detection Techniques and Applications","score":0.9878000020980835,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/coronavirus-disease-2019","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","score":0.8878986835479736},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/estimation","display_name":"Estimation","score":0.6940113306045532},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-neural-network","display_name":"Artificial neural network","score":0.6453312039375305},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/2019-20-coronavirus-outbreak","display_name":"2019-20 coronavirus outbreak","score":0.6348479986190796},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-2","display_name":"Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)","score":0.6224600076675415},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.44927865266799927},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.44823169708251953},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.43663448095321655},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/epidemic-model","display_name":"Epidemic model","score":0.4349654018878937},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/virology","display_name":"Virology","score":0.27439048886299133},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.2591734528541565},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economics","display_name":"Economics","score":0.19204065203666687},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/medicine","display_name":"Medicine","score":0.1566358208656311},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/outbreak","display_name":"Outbreak","score":0.10903695225715637},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/environmental-health","display_name":"Environmental health","score":0.07918804883956909},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/infectious-disease","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","score":0.07022029161453247}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3008058167","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q84263196","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","level":4,"score":0.8878986835479736},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C96250715","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q965330","display_name":"Estimation","level":2,"score":0.6940113306045532},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C50644808","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q192776","display_name":"Artificial neural network","level":2,"score":0.6453312039375305},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3006700255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q81068910","display_name":"2019-20 coronavirus outbreak","level":3,"score":0.6348479986190796},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3007834351","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q82069695","display_name":"Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)","level":5,"score":0.6224600076675415},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.44927865266799927},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.44823169708251953},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.43663448095321655},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C1627819","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2572354","display_name":"Epidemic model","level":3,"score":0.4349654018878937},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159047783","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7215","display_name":"Virology","level":1,"score":0.27439048886299133},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.2591734528541565},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.19204065203666687},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.1566358208656311},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C116675565","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3241045","display_name":"Outbreak","level":2,"score":0.10903695225715637},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C99454951","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q932068","display_name":"Environmental health","level":1,"score":0.07918804883956909},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C524204448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q788926","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","level":3,"score":0.07022029161453247},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C142724271","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7208","display_name":"Pathology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C187736073","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2920921","display_name":"Management","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779134260","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12136","display_name":"Disease","level":2,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":5,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.3390/e24070929","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/e24070929","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/24/7/929/pdf?version=1657174969","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S195231649","display_name":"Entropy","issn_l":"1099-4300","issn":["1099-4300"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Entropy","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:35885152","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35885152","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)","raw_type":null},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:9ae3848b26c64fcba4866b43a3735849","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/9ae3848b26c64fcba4866b43a3735849","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S112646816","display_name":"SHILAP Revista de lepidopterolog\u00eda","issn_l":"0300-5267","issn":["0300-5267","2340-4078"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Entropy, Vol 24, Iss 7, p 929 (2022)","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:mdpi.com:/1099-4300/24/7/929/","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e24070929","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400947","display_name":"MDPI (MDPI AG)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4210097602","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (Switzerland)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210097602"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Entropy; Volume 24; Issue 7; Pages: 929","raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:9322732","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/9322732","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Entropy (Basel)","raw_type":"Text"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/e24070929","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/e24070929","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/24/7/929/pdf?version=1657174969","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S195231649","display_name":"Entropy","issn_l":"1099-4300","issn":["1099-4300"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Entropy","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","display_name":"Good health and well-being","score":0.8799999952316284}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4283803602.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4283803602.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":70,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1975372198","https://openalex.org/W1985559024","https://openalex.org/W1997866278","https://openalex.org/W2003580285","https://openalex.org/W2026613779","https://openalex.org/W2050881663","https://openalex.org/W2062579334","https://openalex.org/W2076646500","https://openalex.org/W2097446414","https://openalex.org/W2101234009","https://openalex.org/W2111676515","https://openalex.org/W2136848157","https://openalex.org/W2193964535","https://openalex.org/W2296609147","https://openalex.org/W2342249984","https://openalex.org/W2550548876","https://openalex.org/W2895420596","https://openalex.org/W2901973152","https://openalex.org/W2905810301","https://openalex.org/W2908464045","https://openalex.org/W2911925130","https://openalex.org/W2943491685","https://openalex.org/W2945076924","https://openalex.org/W2963119595","https://openalex.org/W2978849696","https://openalex.org/W2997003477","https://openalex.org/W3004397688","https://openalex.org/W3006914768","https://openalex.org/W3013053228","https://openalex.org/W3014278717","https://openalex.org/W3014847215","https://openalex.org/W3020878652","https://openalex.org/W3022787740","https://openalex.org/W3032127696","https://openalex.org/W3035965352","https://openalex.org/W3039570131","https://openalex.org/W3042316884","https://openalex.org/W3046978353","https://openalex.org/W3048206957","https://openalex.org/W3049310425","https://openalex.org/W3061808290","https://openalex.org/W3082847177","https://openalex.org/W3089731495","https://openalex.org/W3099878876","https://openalex.org/W3110371192","https://openalex.org/W3118388884","https://openalex.org/W3121470058","https://openalex.org/W3123800621","https://openalex.org/W3127777396","https://openalex.org/W3146230579","https://openalex.org/W3150933588","https://openalex.org/W3159754351","https://openalex.org/W3159901390","https://openalex.org/W3175934715","https://openalex.org/W3182706339","https://openalex.org/W3182779474","https://openalex.org/W3192530442","https://openalex.org/W3192594032","https://openalex.org/W3196516259","https://openalex.org/W3205323535","https://openalex.org/W3209594828","https://openalex.org/W3215039633","https://openalex.org/W4234971943","https://openalex.org/W4290648800","https://openalex.org/W6657175762","https://openalex.org/W6675354045","https://openalex.org/W6775857450","https://openalex.org/W6788231688","https://openalex.org/W6788938896","https://openalex.org/W6803964248"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3127156785","https://openalex.org/W4205754011","https://openalex.org/W3009669391","https://openalex.org/W4200329650","https://openalex.org/W4205215807","https://openalex.org/W3005417802","https://openalex.org/W4226296940","https://openalex.org/W3028835529","https://openalex.org/W3036314732","https://openalex.org/W3134376730"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"On":[0],"31":[1],"December":[2],"2019,":[3],"a":[4,108,132,245],"cluster":[5],"of":[6,9,62,72,82,120,127,149,289],"pneumonia":[7],"cases":[8,18,126],"unknown":[10],"etiology":[11],"was":[12,179],"reported":[13],"in":[14,123],"Wuhan":[15],"(China).":[16],"The":[17,77],"were":[19,159,224],"declared":[20],"to":[21,55,65,97,164,215,271,299],"be":[22],"Coronavirus":[23,39],"Disease":[24],"2019":[25],"(COVID-19)":[26],"by":[27,140,145,206,252,259,268,279],"the":[28,48,60,69,80,116,142,146,150,153,165,169,172,192,200,219,227,242,254,262,272,276,280,296,300,303],"World":[29],"Health":[30],"Organization":[31],"(WHO).":[32],"COVID-19":[33],"has":[34,94],"been":[35,53,95],"defined":[36],"as":[37,244],"SARS":[38],"2":[40],"(SARS-CoV-2).":[41],"Some":[42],"countries,":[43],"e.g.,":[44,68],"Italy,":[45,168],"France,":[46,171,302],"and":[47,75,118,136,174,185,212,233,261,293,305],"United":[49,70],"Kingdom":[50],"(UK),":[51],"have":[52],"subjected":[54],"frequent":[56],"restrictions":[57,78],"for":[58,115],"preventing":[59],"spread":[61],"infection,":[63],"contrary":[64],"other":[66,216],"ones,":[67],"States":[71],"America":[73],"(USA)":[74],"Sweden.":[76,175],"afflicted":[79],"evolution":[81],"trends":[83,122],"with":[84,218],"several":[85],"perturbations":[86],"that":[87,196,223],"destabilized":[88],"its":[89],"normal":[90],"evolution.":[91],"Globally,":[92],"Rt":[93,138,155,243],"used":[96],"estimate":[98],"time-varying":[99],"reproduction":[100],"numbers":[101],"during":[102],"epidemics.":[103],"<i>Methods:</i>":[104],"This":[105],"paper":[106],"presents":[107],"solution":[109,198],"based":[110,225],"on":[111,152,161,191,226,295],"Deep":[112],"Learning":[113],"(DL)":[114],"analysis":[117],"forecasting":[119],"epidemic":[121],"new":[124],"positive":[125],"SARS-CoV-2":[128],"(COVID-19).":[129],"It":[130,248],"combined":[131],"neural":[133],"network":[134],"(NN)":[135],"an":[137,238,285],"estimation":[139],"adjusting":[141],"data":[143],"produced":[144],"output":[147],"layer":[148],"NN":[151,239],"related":[154,163,298],"estimation.":[156],"<i>Results:</i>":[157],"Tests":[158,189],"performed":[160,190,278],"datasets":[162,297],"following":[166],"countries:":[167],"USA,":[170,301],"UK,":[173,304],"Positive":[176],"case":[177],"registration":[178],"retrieved":[180],"between":[181],"24":[182],"February":[183],"2020":[184],"11":[186],"January":[187],"2022.":[188],"Italian":[193],"dataset":[194],"showed":[195],"our":[197],"reduced":[199,250],"Mean":[201,255,264],"Absolute":[202,256],"Percentage":[203],"Error":[204,257,266],"(MAPE)":[205],"28.44%,":[207],"39.36%,":[208],"22.96%,":[209],"17.93%,":[210,253],"28.10%,":[211],"24.50%":[213],"compared":[214,270],"ones":[217],"same":[220,273],"configuration":[221],"but":[222],"LSTM,":[228],"GRU,":[229],"RNN,":[230],"ARIMA":[231,234],"(1,0,3),":[232],"(7,2,4)":[235],"models,":[236],"or":[237],"without":[240,275],"applying":[241],"corrective":[246],"index.":[247],"also":[249],"MAPE":[251,287],"(MAE)":[258],"34.37%,":[260],"Root":[263],"Square":[265],"(RMSE)":[267],"43.76%":[269],"model":[274],"adjustment":[277],"Rt.":[281],"Furthermore,":[282],"it":[283],"allowed":[284],"average":[286],"reduction":[288],"5.37%,":[290],"63.10%,":[291],"17.84%,":[292],"14.91%":[294],"Sweden,":[306],"respectively.":[307]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":9}],"updated_date":"2026-03-20T23:20:44.827607","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
