{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4412150212","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/computation13070165","title":"A Segmented Linear Regression Study of Seasonal Profiles of COVID-19 Deaths in Italy: September 2021\u2013September 2024","display_name":"A Segmented Linear Regression Study of Seasonal Profiles of COVID-19 Deaths in Italy: September 2021\u2013September 2024","publication_year":2025,"publication_date":"2025-07-09","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4412150212","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/computation13070165"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/computation13070165","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/computation13070165","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2079-3197/13/7/165/pdf?version=1752136944","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2738402919","display_name":"Computation","issn_l":"2079-3197","issn":["2079-3197"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Computation","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2079-3197/13/7/165/pdf?version=1752136944","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5025338247","display_name":"Marco Roccetti","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1264-8595"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I9360294","display_name":"University of Bologna","ror":"https://ror.org/01111rn36","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I9360294"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Marco Roccetti","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Bologna, 40127 Bologna, Italy"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1264-8595","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Bologna, 40127 Bologna, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I9360294"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5114204227","display_name":"Eugenio Maria De Rosa","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I9360294","display_name":"University of Bologna","ror":"https://ror.org/01111rn36","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I9360294"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Eugenio Maria De Rosa","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Bologna, 40127 Bologna, Italy"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0006-3943-4553","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Bologna, 40127 Bologna, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I9360294"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5025338247"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I9360294"],"apc_list":{"value":1400,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":1515},"apc_paid":{"value":1400,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":1515},"fwci":4.8759,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":4,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.95328656,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":97,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"13","issue":"7","first_page":"165","last_page":"165"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9991000294685364,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9991000294685364,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11711","display_name":"COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts","score":0.9764999747276306,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11775","display_name":"COVID-19 diagnosis using AI","score":0.9684000015258789,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2741","display_name":"Radiology, Nuclear Medicine and Imaging"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/coronavirus-disease-2019","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","score":0.7982265949249268},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/linear-regression","display_name":"Linear regression","score":0.5765722393989563},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/2019-20-coronavirus-outbreak","display_name":"2019-20 coronavirus outbreak","score":0.5540218353271484},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-2","display_name":"Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)","score":0.5344981551170349},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/geography","display_name":"Geography","score":0.5077870488166809},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/regression","display_name":"Regression","score":0.4604417085647583},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/regression-analysis","display_name":"Regression analysis","score":0.41754817962646484},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/demography","display_name":"Demography","score":0.3574472665786743},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.3178713321685791},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/medicine","display_name":"Medicine","score":0.24696940183639526},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/virology","display_name":"Virology","score":0.24524295330047607},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.17253300547599792},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/outbreak","display_name":"Outbreak","score":0.13332438468933105},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/internal-medicine","display_name":"Internal medicine","score":0.07205089926719666}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3008058167","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q84263196","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","level":4,"score":0.7982265949249268},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C48921125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q10861030","display_name":"Linear regression","level":2,"score":0.5765722393989563},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3006700255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q81068910","display_name":"2019-20 coronavirus outbreak","level":3,"score":0.5540218353271484},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3007834351","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q82069695","display_name":"Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)","level":5,"score":0.5344981551170349},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.5077870488166809},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C83546350","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1139051","display_name":"Regression","level":2,"score":0.4604417085647583},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C152877465","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q208042","display_name":"Regression analysis","level":2,"score":0.41754817962646484},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149923435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demography","level":1,"score":0.3574472665786743},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.3178713321685791},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.24696940183639526},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159047783","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7215","display_name":"Virology","level":1,"score":0.24524295330047607},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.17253300547599792},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C116675565","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3241045","display_name":"Outbreak","level":2,"score":0.13332438468933105},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126322002","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11180","display_name":"Internal medicine","level":1,"score":0.07205089926719666},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C524204448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q788926","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","level":3,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779134260","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12136","display_name":"Disease","level":2,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.3390/computation13070165","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/computation13070165","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2079-3197/13/7/165/pdf?version=1752136944","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2738402919","display_name":"Computation","issn_l":"2079-3197","issn":["2079-3197"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Computation","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:cris.unibo.it:11585/1020473","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2079-3197/13/7/165","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402579","display_name":"Archivio istituzionale della ricerca (Alma Mater Studiorum Universit\u00e0 di Bologna)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4210117483","host_organization_name":"Istituto di Ematologia di Bologna","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210117483"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:3aeb3b942f2c4d6cbc7243b8490ad377","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/3aeb3b942f2c4d6cbc7243b8490ad377","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S112646816","display_name":"SHILAP Revista de lepidopterolog\u00eda","issn_l":"0300-5267","issn":["0300-5267","2340-4078"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Computation, Vol 13, Iss 7, p 165 (2025)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/computation13070165","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/computation13070165","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2079-3197/13/7/165/pdf?version=1752136944","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2738402919","display_name":"Computation","issn_l":"2079-3197","issn":["2079-3197"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Computation","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320323553","display_name":"Universit\u00e0 di Bologna","ror":"https://ror.org/01111rn36"}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4412150212.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4412150212.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":37,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1605498756","https://openalex.org/W2010241460","https://openalex.org/W2134942647","https://openalex.org/W2168378416","https://openalex.org/W2613993003","https://openalex.org/W3044137311","https://openalex.org/W3125548961","https://openalex.org/W3157607700","https://openalex.org/W3163231245","https://openalex.org/W3174782201","https://openalex.org/W3199919341","https://openalex.org/W3205830567","https://openalex.org/W3206422332","https://openalex.org/W4200400868","https://openalex.org/W4210655082","https://openalex.org/W4220913553","https://openalex.org/W4223525211","https://openalex.org/W4224325201","https://openalex.org/W4229066562","https://openalex.org/W4285243258","https://openalex.org/W4309182017","https://openalex.org/W4313456138","https://openalex.org/W4319737973","https://openalex.org/W4322754427","https://openalex.org/W4323652706","https://openalex.org/W4360603387","https://openalex.org/W4376126397","https://openalex.org/W4382677476","https://openalex.org/W4388500475","https://openalex.org/W4391983206","https://openalex.org/W4397004508","https://openalex.org/W4401837613","https://openalex.org/W4406865551","https://openalex.org/W4410003553","https://openalex.org/W4411117671","https://openalex.org/W6846914569","https://openalex.org/W6871525422"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3127156785","https://openalex.org/W3009669391","https://openalex.org/W4200329650","https://openalex.org/W4205215807","https://openalex.org/W3005417802","https://openalex.org/W4205754011","https://openalex.org/W4226296940","https://openalex.org/W3028835529","https://openalex.org/W3036314732","https://openalex.org/W31220157"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Using":[0],"a":[1,19,79,213],"segmented":[2,178],"linear":[3],"regression":[4,40,179],"model,":[5],"we":[6,42],"examined":[7],"the":[8,24,36,39,47,52,58,71,85,90,100,129,158,184,191,195,222,229,255],"seasonal":[9],"profiles":[10],"of":[11,38,51,87,92,108,131,138,169,194,224,228],"weekly":[12,73],"COVID-19":[13,54,72,101,132,151,171,186,216],"deaths":[14,102,152,172],"data":[15],"in":[16,49,78,82,99,118,121,128,142,145,157,219,221,234,237],"Italy":[17,83,220],"over":[18],"three-year-long":[20],"period":[21,223],"during":[22,254],"which":[23],"SARS-CoV-2":[25],"Omicron":[26],"and":[27,106,140,144,163,200,206,236,260],"post-Omicron":[28],"variants":[29],"were":[30,43,115],"predominant":[31],"(September":[32],"2021\u2013September":[33],"2024).":[34],"Comparing":[35],"slopes":[37],"segments,":[41],"able":[44],"to":[45],"discuss":[46],"variation":[48],"steepness":[50],"Italian":[53],"mortality":[55,75,113,217,230],"trend,":[56],"identifying":[57],"corresponding":[59],"growth/decline":[60],"profile":[61],"for":[62,103,173,203],"each":[63,135,174],"considered":[64],"season.":[65],"Our":[66,177],"findings":[67],"show":[68],"that,":[69],"although":[70],"death":[74],"has":[76,181],"been":[77,96,247],"declining":[80,215],"trend":[81,218],"since":[84],"end":[86,91],"2021":[88],"until":[89],"2024,":[93],"there":[94],"have":[95,231,245],"increasing":[97,112],"alterations":[98],"all":[104],"winters":[105,119,143,162,235,259],"summers":[107,205],"that":[109,150],"period.":[110],"These":[111],"variations":[114],"more":[116],"pronounced":[117],"than":[120],"summers,":[122,146,164,238],"with":[123,134,165],"an":[124,166],"average":[125,167,192],"progressive":[126],"increase":[127],"number":[130],"deaths,":[133,187],"new":[136,175],"week,":[137],"55.75":[139],"22.90,":[141],"respectively.":[147],"We":[148],"found":[149],"were,":[153],"instead,":[154],"less":[155],"frequent":[156],"intermediate":[159,207,256],"periods":[160,257],"between":[161,258],"decrease":[168],"\u221238.01":[170],"week.":[176],"model":[180],"fitted":[182],"well":[183],"observed":[185],"as":[188],"confirmed":[189],"by":[190,212,249],"value":[193],"determination":[196],"coefficients:":[197],"0.74,":[198],"0.63":[199],"0.70,":[201],"respectively,":[202],"winters,":[204],"periods.":[208],"In":[209],"conclusion,":[210],"favored":[211],"general":[214],"interest,":[225],"transient":[226],"rises":[227],"occurred":[232],"both":[233],"but":[239],"received":[240],"little":[241],"attention":[242],"because":[243],"they":[244],"always":[246],"compensated":[248],"consistent":[250],"downward":[251],"drifts":[252],"occurring":[253],"summers.":[261]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":4}],"updated_date":"2025-11-06T03:46:38.306776","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
