{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4414306269","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3389/frai.2025.1668700","title":"Predicting BRICS NIFTY50 returns using XAI and S.A.F.E AI lens","display_name":"Predicting BRICS NIFTY50 returns using XAI and S.A.F.E AI lens","publication_year":2025,"publication_date":"2025-09-18","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4414306269","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3389/frai.2025.1668700","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41050104"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.3389/frai.2025.1668700","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3389/frai.2025.1668700","pdf_url":"https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/artificial-intelligence/articles/10.3389/frai.2025.1668700/pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210197006","display_name":"Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence","issn_l":"2624-8212","issn":["2624-8212"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320527","host_organization_name":"Frontiers Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320527"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Frontiers Media"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/artificial-intelligence/articles/10.3389/frai.2025.1668700/pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5035284963","display_name":"Indranil Ghosh","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7910-8919"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I166533956","display_name":"Institute of Management Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/05k0kb696","country_code":"IN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I166533956"]}],"countries":["IN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Indranil Ghosh","raw_affiliation_strings":["IT & Analytics Area, Institute of Management Technology Hyderabad, Hyderabad, Telangana, India"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"IT & Analytics Area, Institute of Management Technology Hyderabad, Hyderabad, Telangana, India","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I166533956"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5061199365","display_name":"Tamal Datta Chaudhuri","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5086-6019"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Tamal Datta Chaudhuri","raw_affiliation_strings":["Bengal Economic Association, Kolkata, India"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Bengal Economic Association, Kolkata, India","institution_ids":[]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5039229061","display_name":"Golnoosh Babaei","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6132-2271"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I25217355","display_name":"University of Pavia","ror":"https://ror.org/00s6t1f81","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I25217355"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Golnoosh Babaei","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Economics and Management, Universita di Pavia, Pavia, Italy"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Economics and Management, Universita di Pavia, Pavia, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I25217355"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5051364218","display_name":"Paolo Giudici","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4198-0127"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I25217355","display_name":"University of Pavia","ror":"https://ror.org/00s6t1f81","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I25217355"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Paolo Giudici","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Economics and Management, Universita di Pavia, Pavia, Italy"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Economics and Management, Universita di Pavia, Pavia, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I25217355"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5017037785","display_name":"Emanuela Raffinetti","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0386-7975"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I25217355","display_name":"University of Pavia","ror":"https://ror.org/00s6t1f81","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I25217355"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Emanuela Raffinetti","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Economics and Management, Universita di Pavia, Pavia, Italy"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Economics and Management, Universita di Pavia, Pavia, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I25217355"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":5,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5039229061"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I25217355"],"apc_list":{"value":1150,"currency":"USD","value_usd":1150},"apc_paid":{"value":1150,"currency":"USD","value_usd":1150},"fwci":1.5047,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":1,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.85986829,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":95,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"8","issue":null,"first_page":"1668700","last_page":"1668700"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11326","display_name":"Stock Market Forecasting Methods","score":0.7829999923706055,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11326","display_name":"Stock Market Forecasting Methods","score":0.7829999923706055,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11653","display_name":"Financial Distress and Bankruptcy Prediction","score":0.04690000042319298,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1402","display_name":"Accounting"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11059","display_name":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","score":0.008700000122189522,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/measure","display_name":"Measure (data warehouse)","score":0.6190999746322632},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/novelty","display_name":"Novelty","score":0.4616999924182892},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/through-the-lens-metering","display_name":"Through-the-lens metering","score":0.3828999996185303},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/term","display_name":"Term (time)","score":0.33739998936653137},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/investment","display_name":"Investment (military)","score":0.2705000042915344}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780009758","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6804172","display_name":"Measure (data warehouse)","level":2,"score":0.6190999746322632},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.5598999857902527},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.46389999985694885},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778738651","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q16546687","display_name":"Novelty","level":2,"score":0.4616999924182892},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43091099","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1067788","display_name":"Through-the-lens metering","level":3,"score":0.3828999996185303},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.3617999851703644},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C61797465","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1188986","display_name":"Term (time)","level":2,"score":0.33739998936653137},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C27548731","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q88272","display_name":"Investment (military)","level":3,"score":0.2705000042915344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776401178","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12050496","display_name":"Feature (linguistics)","level":2,"score":0.2678999900817871},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.2671999931335449},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.26080000400543213},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162118730","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128453","display_name":"Actuarial science","level":1,"score":0.25940001010894775},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777402642","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2557224","display_name":"Explanatory power","level":2,"score":0.25110000371932983}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":5,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.3389/frai.2025.1668700","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3389/frai.2025.1668700","pdf_url":"https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/artificial-intelligence/articles/10.3389/frai.2025.1668700/pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210197006","display_name":"Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence","issn_l":"2624-8212","issn":["2624-8212"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320527","host_organization_name":"Frontiers Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320527"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Frontiers Media"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:41050104","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41050104","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Frontiers in artificial intelligence","raw_type":null},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:e192e5d8dac94731a798133529d92abb","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/e192e5d8dac94731a798133529d92abb","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence, Vol 8 (2025)","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:europepmc.org:11299310","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/12488714","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400806","display_name":"Europe PMC (PubMed Central)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1303153112","host_organization_name":"European Bioinformatics Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1303153112"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:12488714","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12488714/","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Front Artif Intell","raw_type":"Text"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.3389/frai.2025.1668700","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3389/frai.2025.1668700","pdf_url":"https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/artificial-intelligence/articles/10.3389/frai.2025.1668700/pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210197006","display_name":"Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence","issn_l":"2624-8212","issn":["2624-8212"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320527","host_organization_name":"Frontiers Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320527"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Frontiers Media"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4414306269.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4414306269.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":53,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W2056132907","https://openalex.org/W2056723044","https://openalex.org/W2295598076","https://openalex.org/W2901435174","https://openalex.org/W2911964244","https://openalex.org/W2962862931","https://openalex.org/W3108972677","https://openalex.org/W3123675599","https://openalex.org/W3134207303","https://openalex.org/W3137004022","https://openalex.org/W4210856869","https://openalex.org/W4244952642","https://openalex.org/W4281861025","https://openalex.org/W4289755479","https://openalex.org/W4293054001","https://openalex.org/W4319304509","https://openalex.org/W4379107035","https://openalex.org/W4384575470","https://openalex.org/W4386013088","https://openalex.org/W4387575061","https://openalex.org/W4387610428","https://openalex.org/W4388211269","https://openalex.org/W4390666061","https://openalex.org/W4397028612","https://openalex.org/W4400519756","https://openalex.org/W4400904566","https://openalex.org/W4402024747","https://openalex.org/W4402645184","https://openalex.org/W4403616295","https://openalex.org/W4403648164","https://openalex.org/W4404067039","https://openalex.org/W4405321779","https://openalex.org/W4405490206","https://openalex.org/W4405844086","https://openalex.org/W4407056046","https://openalex.org/W4407243449","https://openalex.org/W4407273760","https://openalex.org/W4407686778","https://openalex.org/W4408095012","https://openalex.org/W4408398203","https://openalex.org/W4408667405","https://openalex.org/W4409112652","https://openalex.org/W4409194519","https://openalex.org/W4409345193","https://openalex.org/W4409747254","https://openalex.org/W4410118365","https://openalex.org/W4410997834","https://openalex.org/W4411035520","https://openalex.org/W4411439475","https://openalex.org/W4412101404","https://openalex.org/W4412415450","https://openalex.org/W4412601070","https://openalex.org/W4413745906"],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Purpose:":[0],"Global":[1],"fund":[2,73,295],"managers,":[3],"in":[4],"their":[5,29],"effort":[6],"toward":[7],"risk":[8],"diversification":[9],"and":[10,49,75,102,129,135,167,197,234,254,263,280,297,312,317,331],"generating":[11],"higher":[12],"returns,":[13],"design":[14],"portfolios":[15],"that":[16,225,247,307],"consist":[17],"of":[18,21,36,46,119,199,207,290,320,327,343],"financial":[19,104,231],"assets":[20,38],"various":[22],"countries.":[23],"In":[24],"the":[25,34,37,66,117,142,150,186,204,208,212,243,341,344],"process,":[26],"they":[27],"expose":[28],"investors":[30,115],"not":[31,112],"only":[32,113],"to":[33,41,116,124,140,216,251,257,277,293,336],"fundamentals":[35,118],"but":[39,122],"also":[40,123,245],"transnational":[42],"volatility,":[43,228],"macroeconomic":[44],"shocks":[45],"different":[47,120,333],"countries,":[48],"exchange":[50,235],"rate":[51,236],"fluctuations.":[52],"These":[53],"factors":[54,249,306],"make":[55,308],"forecasting":[56,81,175,323],"returns":[57,85,176,240],"from":[58,86,177],"such":[59],"global":[60,72,109,239,281,294],"funds":[61],"quite":[62],"difficult":[63],"and,":[64],"at":[65],"same":[67],"time,":[68],"challenging.":[69],"To":[70,202],"aid":[71],"managers":[74,296],"investors,":[76],"this":[77],"study":[78,266],"presents":[79],"a":[80,100,108,217,269,321],"framework":[82,189],"for":[83,174,192,304],"predicting":[84],"Goldman":[87],"Sachs":[88],"BRICs":[89],"Nifty":[90],"50":[91],"Developed":[92],"Markets":[93],"Index":[94],"(BRICS":[95],"NIFTY":[96,179],"50),":[97],"which":[98,111],"is":[99,107,190],"traded":[101],"listed":[103],"asset.":[105],"It":[106],"portfolio,":[110],"exposes":[114],"companies":[121],"country":[125],"risk.":[126],"Design":[127],"methodology":[128,287],"approach:":[130],"Gradient":[131,156,161],"boosting":[132],"regression":[133],"(GBR)":[134],"SHAP-based":[136],"XAI":[137],"are":[138,172],"used":[139,191],"identify":[141],"top":[143],"significant":[144],"country-specific":[145,226,328],"explanatory":[146,248,329],"variables.":[147],"Subsequently,":[148],"with":[149,182],"selected":[151],"variables,":[152,330],"GBR,":[153],"CatBoost,":[154],"Light":[155],"Boosting":[157,162],"Machine":[158],"(LGBM),":[159],"Extreme":[160],"(XGBoost),":[163],"Random":[164],"Forest":[165],"(RF),":[166],"Extra":[168],"Tree":[169],"Regressor":[170],"(ETR)":[171],"applied":[173],"BRICS":[178],"50.":[180],"Along":[181],"standard":[183],"evaluation":[184,334],"tools,":[185],"S.A.F.E":[187],"AI":[188],"measuring":[193],"predictive":[194,210,338],"accuracy,":[195],"sustainability,":[196],"contribution":[198],"each":[200],"predictor.":[201],"evaluate":[203],"relative":[205],"efficacy":[206],"six":[209],"models,":[211],"underlying":[213],"research":[214],"resorts":[215],"multi-criteria":[218],"decision-making":[219],"(MCDM)":[220],"framework.":[221],"Findings:":[222],"We":[223],"find":[224,301],"market":[227],"industrial":[229],"performance,":[230],"sector":[232],"development,":[233],"fluctuations":[237],"explain":[238],"significantly.":[241],"Furthermore,":[242],"exercise":[244],"reveals":[246],"specific":[250],"India,":[252],"China,":[253],"Brazil":[255],"emerge":[256],"be":[258,289],"relatively":[259],"important.":[260],"Research":[261],"limitations":[262],"implications:":[264,284],"The":[265,285],"focuses":[267],"on":[268],"single":[270],"index.":[271],"Future":[272],"work":[273],"will":[274,288],"extend":[275],"it":[276,302],"other":[278],"indices":[279],"funds.":[282],"Practical":[283],"proposed":[286],"practical":[291],"use":[292],"investors.":[298],"Policymakers":[299],"may":[300],"useful":[303],"identifying":[305,325],"foreign":[309],"direct":[310],"investment":[311,314],"portfolio":[313],"attractive.":[315],"Originality":[316],"value:":[318],"Development":[319],"two-step":[322],"framework,":[324],"effects":[326],"applying":[332],"criteria":[335],"measure":[337],"efficiency":[339],"underscore":[340],"novelty":[342],"work.":[345]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-06-15T08:34:33.830935","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
