{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4398781093","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3233/shti240054","title":"Time Series Forecasting of Cardiovascular Mortality: Machine Learning Based on State Economic and Local Medical Data","display_name":"Time Series Forecasting of Cardiovascular Mortality: Machine Learning Based on State Economic and Local Medical Data","publication_year":2024,"publication_date":"2024-05-23","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4398781093","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3233/shti240054","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38785001"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.3233/shti240054","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://dx.doi.org/10.3233/shti240054","pdf_url":"https://ebooks.iospress.nl/pdf/doi/10.3233/SHTI240054","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210179765","display_name":"Studies in health technology and informatics","issn_l":"0926-9630","issn":["0926-9630","1879-8365"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310318577","host_organization_name":"IOS Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310318577"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["IOS Press"],"type":"book series"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Studies in Health Technology and Informatics","raw_type":"book-chapter"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"hybrid","oa_url":"https://ebooks.iospress.nl/pdf/doi/10.3233/SHTI240054","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5030623285","display_name":"German Gebel","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I173089394","display_name":"ITMO University","ror":"https://ror.org/04txgxn49","country_code":"RU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I173089394"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I3018698992","display_name":"Federal Almazov North-West Medical Research Centre","ror":"https://ror.org/03qepc107","country_code":"RU","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I3018698992"]}],"countries":["RU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"German Gebel","raw_affiliation_strings":["ITMO University, Saint-Petersburg, Russia","Almazov National Medical Research Center, Saint-Petersburg, Russia;"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"ITMO University, Saint-Petersburg, Russia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I173089394"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Almazov National Medical Research Center, Saint-Petersburg, Russia;","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I3018698992"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5065936625","display_name":"Oleg Metsker","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3427-7932"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I3018698992","display_name":"Federal Almazov North-West Medical Research Centre","ror":"https://ror.org/03qepc107","country_code":"RU","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I3018698992"]}],"countries":["RU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Oleg Metsker","raw_affiliation_strings":["Almazov National Medical Research Centre, Saint-Petersburg, Russia"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Almazov National Medical Research Centre, Saint-Petersburg, Russia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I3018698992"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5051841424","display_name":"\u0410. \u0410. \u0424\u0435\u0434\u043e\u0440\u0435\u043d\u043a\u043e","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9836-7841"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I173089394","display_name":"ITMO University","ror":"https://ror.org/04txgxn49","country_code":"RU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I173089394"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I3018698992","display_name":"Federal Almazov North-West Medical Research Centre","ror":"https://ror.org/03qepc107","country_code":"RU","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I3018698992"]}],"countries":["RU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Alexey Fedorenko","raw_affiliation_strings":["ITMO University, Saint-Petersburg, Russia","Almazov National Medical Research Center, Saint-Petersburg, Russia;"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"ITMO University, Saint-Petersburg, Russia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I173089394"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Almazov National Medical Research Center, Saint-Petersburg, Russia;","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I3018698992"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5050411442","display_name":"A. N. Yakovlev","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5656-3978"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I3018698992","display_name":"Federal Almazov North-West Medical Research Centre","ror":"https://ror.org/03qepc107","country_code":"RU","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I3018698992"]}],"countries":["RU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Alexey Yakovlev","raw_affiliation_strings":["Almazov National Medical Research Centre, Saint-Petersburg, Russia"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Almazov National Medical Research Centre, Saint-Petersburg, Russia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I3018698992"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5087421455","display_name":"\u041d. \u042d. \u0417\u0432\u0430\u0440\u0442\u0430\u0443","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6533-5950"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I3018698992","display_name":"Federal Almazov North-West Medical Research Centre","ror":"https://ror.org/03qepc107","country_code":"RU","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I3018698992"]}],"countries":["RU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Nadezhda E. Zvartau","raw_affiliation_strings":["Almazov National Medical Research Centre, Saint-Petersburg, Russia"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Almazov National Medical Research Centre, Saint-Petersburg, Russia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I3018698992"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5013024367","display_name":"Georgy Kopanitsa","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6231-8036"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I3018698992","display_name":"Federal Almazov North-West Medical Research Centre","ror":"https://ror.org/03qepc107","country_code":"RU","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I3018698992"]}],"countries":["RU"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Georgy Kopanitsa","raw_affiliation_strings":["Almazov National Medical Research Centre, Saint-Petersburg, Russia"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Almazov National Medical Research Centre, Saint-Petersburg, Russia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I3018698992"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":6,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5013024367"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I3018698992"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.1926937,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"314","issue":null,"first_page":"42","last_page":"46"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12935","display_name":"Healthcare Systems and Public Health","score":0.9945999979972839,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2713","display_name":"Epidemiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12935","display_name":"Healthcare Systems and Public Health","score":0.9945999979972839,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2713","display_name":"Epidemiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12011","display_name":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","score":0.9857000112533569,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3317","display_name":"Demography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11244","display_name":"Climate Change and Health Impacts","score":0.9697999954223633,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2307","display_name":"Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/generalizability-theory","display_name":"Generalizability theory","score":0.8088277578353882},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/robustness","display_name":"Robustness (evolution)","score":0.6514551043510437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/population","display_name":"Population","score":0.5406354069709778},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.5269017219543457},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/time-series","display_name":"Time series","score":0.4272041916847229},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/healthcare-system","display_name":"Healthcare system","score":0.4162044823169708},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/regression","display_name":"Regression","score":0.41414502263069153},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/health-care","display_name":"Health care","score":0.40337705612182617},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/medicine","display_name":"Medicine","score":0.3386777341365814},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/medical-emergency","display_name":"Medical emergency","score":0.3383217453956604},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/machine-learning","display_name":"Machine learning","score":0.2863108813762665},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.19642293453216553},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/environmental-health","display_name":"Environmental health","score":0.13512760400772095},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economic-growth","display_name":"Economic growth","score":0.09429380297660828},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economics","display_name":"Economics","score":0.08455544710159302}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C27158222","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5532422","display_name":"Generalizability theory","level":2,"score":0.8088277578353882},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C63479239","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7353546","display_name":"Robustness (evolution)","level":3,"score":0.6514551043510437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.5406354069709778},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5269017219543457},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.4272041916847229},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2988170871","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11000047","display_name":"Healthcare system","level":3,"score":0.4162044823169708},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C83546350","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1139051","display_name":"Regression","level":2,"score":0.41414502263069153},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C160735492","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q31207","display_name":"Health care","level":2,"score":0.40337705612182617},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.3386777341365814},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C545542383","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2751242","display_name":"Medical emergency","level":1,"score":0.3383217453956604},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.2863108813762665},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.19642293453216553},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C99454951","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q932068","display_name":"Environmental health","level":1,"score":0.13512760400772095},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C50522688","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q189833","display_name":"Economic growth","level":1,"score":0.09429380297660828},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.08455544710159302},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185592680","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2329","display_name":"Chemistry","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C104317684","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7187","display_name":"Gene","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C55493867","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7094","display_name":"Biochemistry","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D000069550","descriptor_name":"Machine Learning","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000069550","descriptor_name":"Machine Learning","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000069550","descriptor_name":"Machine Learning","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000069550","descriptor_name":"Machine Learning","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D002318","descriptor_name":"Cardiovascular Diseases","qualifier_ui":"Q000401","qualifier_name":"mortality","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D002318","descriptor_name":"Cardiovascular Diseases","qualifier_ui":"Q000401","qualifier_name":"mortality","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D002318","descriptor_name":"Cardiovascular Diseases","qualifier_ui":"Q000401","qualifier_name":"mortality","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D002318","descriptor_name":"Cardiovascular Diseases","qualifier_ui":"Q000401","qualifier_name":"mortality","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D005544","descriptor_name":"Forecasting","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D005544","descriptor_name":"Forecasting","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D005544","descriptor_name":"Forecasting","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D005544","descriptor_name":"Forecasting","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012426","descriptor_name":"Russia","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012426","descriptor_name":"Russia","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012426","descriptor_name":"Russia","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012426","descriptor_name":"Russia","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false}],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.3233/shti240054","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://dx.doi.org/10.3233/shti240054","pdf_url":"https://ebooks.iospress.nl/pdf/doi/10.3233/SHTI240054","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210179765","display_name":"Studies in health technology and informatics","issn_l":"0926-9630","issn":["0926-9630","1879-8365"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310318577","host_organization_name":"IOS Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310318577"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["IOS Press"],"type":"book series"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Studies in Health Technology and Informatics","raw_type":"book-chapter"},{"id":"pmid:38785001","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38785001","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Studies in health technology and informatics","raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.3233/shti240054","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://dx.doi.org/10.3233/shti240054","pdf_url":"https://ebooks.iospress.nl/pdf/doi/10.3233/SHTI240054","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210179765","display_name":"Studies in health technology and informatics","issn_l":"0926-9630","issn":["0926-9630","1879-8365"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310318577","host_organization_name":"IOS Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310318577"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["IOS Press"],"type":"book series"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Studies in Health Technology and Informatics","raw_type":"book-chapter"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.8500000238418579,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","display_name":"Good health and well-being"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4398781093.pdf"},"referenced_works_count":5,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1979067514","https://openalex.org/W3202998550","https://openalex.org/W4310036578","https://openalex.org/W4312211780","https://openalex.org/W4389055739"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2118717649","https://openalex.org/W2413243053","https://openalex.org/W410723623","https://openalex.org/W2015341305","https://openalex.org/W2035068594","https://openalex.org/W4225593417","https://openalex.org/W2573498121","https://openalex.org/W3022298670","https://openalex.org/W3160494304","https://openalex.org/W4295332818"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"This":[0],"study":[1],"focuses":[2],"on":[3],"the":[4,62,117],"complex":[5],"interplay":[6],"of":[7,66],"healthcare,":[8],"economic":[9,54],"factors,":[10],"and":[11,49,55,73,100,105,110,120],"population":[12,56,93],"dynamics,":[13],"addressing":[14],"a":[15,26,59,111],"research":[16],"gap":[17],"in":[18,43],"regional-level":[19],"models":[20],"that":[21],"integrate":[22],"diverse":[23],"features":[24,52],"within":[25],"temporal":[27,37],"framework.":[28],"Our":[29],"primary":[30],"objective":[31],"is":[32],"to":[33,80],"develop":[34],"an":[35],"advanced":[36],"model":[38],"for":[39],"predicting":[40],"cardiovascular":[41],"mortality":[42],"Russian":[44],"regions":[45,72],"by":[46],"integrating":[47],"global":[48],"local":[50],"healthcare":[51],"with":[53],"dynamics.":[57],"Utilizing":[58],"dataset":[60],"from":[61,76],"Almazov":[63],"Center's":[64],"Department":[65],"Mortality":[67],"Performance":[68],"Monitoring,":[69],"covering":[70],"94":[71],"752":[74],"records":[75],"January":[77],"1,":[78],"2015,":[79],"December":[81],"31,":[82],"2023,":[83],"our":[84,114],"analysis":[85],"incorporates":[86],"key":[87],"parameters":[88],"such":[89],"as":[90],"angioplasty":[91],"procedures,":[92],"morbidity":[94],"rates,":[95],"Ischemic":[96],"Heart":[97],"Disease":[98],"(IHD)":[99],"Cardiovascular":[101],"Diseases":[102],"(CVD)":[103],"monitoring,":[104],"demographic":[106],"data.":[107],"Employing":[108],"XGBoost":[109],"regression":[112],"model,":[113],"methodology":[115],"ensures":[116],"model's":[118],"robustness":[119],"generalizability.":[121]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2025-12-21T23:12:01.093139","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
