{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2280106808","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3233/mas-180428","title":"Statistics-free sports prediction","display_name":"Statistics-free sports prediction","publication_year":2018,"publication_date":"2018-05-09","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2280106808","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3233/mas-180428","mag":"2280106808"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.3233/mas-180428","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3233/mas-180428","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2765066696","display_name":"Model Assisted Statistics and Applications","issn_l":"1574-1699","issn":["1574-1699","1875-9068"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310318577","host_organization_name":"IOS Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310318577"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["IOS Press"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Model Assisted Statistics and Applications","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["arxiv","crossref","datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/1512.07208","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5037037869","display_name":"Alexander Dubbs","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Alexander Dubbs","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5037037869"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.00244148,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"13","issue":"2","first_page":"173","last_page":"181"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.9995999932289124,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.9995999932289124,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12205","display_name":"Time Series Analysis and Forecasting","score":0.9781000018119812,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1711","display_name":"Signal Processing"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10538","display_name":"Data Mining Algorithms and Applications","score":0.9754999876022339,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1710","display_name":"Information Systems"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/basketball","display_name":"Basketball","score":0.8913254737854004},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/football","display_name":"Football","score":0.7997537851333618},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/simple-linear-regression","display_name":"Simple linear regression","score":0.4691801369190216},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.46368545293807983},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/order","display_name":"Order (exchange)","score":0.41399693489074707},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/simple","display_name":"Simple (philosophy)","score":0.4139476716518402},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/psychology","display_name":"Psychology","score":0.4048081934452057},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/advertising","display_name":"Advertising","score":0.390823632478714},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.3602175712585449},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/applied-psychology","display_name":"Applied psychology","score":0.3368775248527527},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.3320159316062927},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/linear-regression","display_name":"Linear regression","score":0.3067825436592102},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/geography","display_name":"Geography","score":0.17267277836799622},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/political-science","display_name":"Political science","score":0.1267271339893341},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economics","display_name":"Economics","score":0.09372588992118835},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/law","display_name":"Law","score":0.06627723574638367},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/business","display_name":"Business","score":0.06613901257514954}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C103189561","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5372","display_name":"Basketball","level":2,"score":0.8913254737854004},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778444522","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1081491","display_name":"Football","level":2,"score":0.7997537851333618},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149769383","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7520804","display_name":"Simple linear regression","level":3,"score":0.4691801369190216},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.46368545293807983},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C182306322","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1779371","display_name":"Order (exchange)","level":2,"score":0.41399693489074707},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780586882","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7520643","display_name":"Simple (philosophy)","level":2,"score":0.4139476716518402},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.4048081934452057},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112698675","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37038","display_name":"Advertising","level":1,"score":0.390823632478714},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.3602175712585449},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C75630572","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q538904","display_name":"Applied psychology","level":1,"score":0.3368775248527527},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.3320159316062927},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C48921125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q10861030","display_name":"Linear regression","level":2,"score":0.3067825436592102},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.17267277836799622},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.1267271339893341},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.09372588992118835},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.06627723574638367},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.06613901257514954},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166957645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23498","display_name":"Archaeology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111472728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9471","display_name":"Epistemology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C10138342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43015","display_name":"Finance","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":4,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.3233/mas-180428","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3233/mas-180428","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2765066696","display_name":"Model Assisted Statistics and Applications","issn_l":"1574-1699","issn":["1574-1699","1875-9068"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310318577","host_organization_name":"IOS Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310318577"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["IOS Press"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Model Assisted Statistics and Applications","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:1512.07208","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/abs/1512.07208","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/1512.07208","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"text"},{"id":"mag:2280106808","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/1512.07208v2","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","raw_type":null},{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.1512.07208","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1512.07208","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:1512.07208","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/abs/1512.07208","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/1512.07208","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":28,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W12684916","https://openalex.org/W21387793","https://openalex.org/W1869351066","https://openalex.org/W1991760730","https://openalex.org/W2001437632","https://openalex.org/W2008779875","https://openalex.org/W2016765379","https://openalex.org/W2034651680","https://openalex.org/W2046403101","https://openalex.org/W2079827184","https://openalex.org/W2088165332","https://openalex.org/W2092930713","https://openalex.org/W2108010714","https://openalex.org/W2109047492","https://openalex.org/W2143669404","https://openalex.org/W2147398390","https://openalex.org/W2148405543","https://openalex.org/W2157731580","https://openalex.org/W2161635717","https://openalex.org/W2167673947","https://openalex.org/W2182961570","https://openalex.org/W2316033474","https://openalex.org/W4236889382","https://openalex.org/W6631462865","https://openalex.org/W6665217972","https://openalex.org/W6676303937","https://openalex.org/W6678728716","https://openalex.org/W6683036718"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2963551967","https://openalex.org/W2072158005","https://openalex.org/W2949896593","https://openalex.org/W3087301479","https://openalex.org/W2955576286","https://openalex.org/W3093367898","https://openalex.org/W3203417369","https://openalex.org/W2552443601","https://openalex.org/W3185170969","https://openalex.org/W2895303633","https://openalex.org/W2604288797","https://openalex.org/W2903181080","https://openalex.org/W3046787452","https://openalex.org/W3200329981","https://openalex.org/W3156546934","https://openalex.org/W3007208975","https://openalex.org/W2766144295","https://openalex.org/W772319615","https://openalex.org/W3104553098","https://openalex.org/W2378537513"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"We":[0,23],"use":[1],"a":[2,86],"simple":[3],"machine":[4],"learning":[5],"model,":[6],"logistically-weighted":[7],"regularized":[8],"linear":[9],"least":[10],"squares":[11],"regression,":[12],"in":[13,57,71,76,79,95,115,128,153],"order":[14],"to":[15,85,139],"predict":[16,140],"baseball,":[17,77],"basketball,":[18,58,116],"football,":[19,129],"and":[20,42,64,73,101,134,149],"hockey":[21,74,103,150],"games.":[22],"do":[24],"so":[25],"using":[26],"only":[27],"the":[28,44,81,102,122,125],"thirty-year":[29],"record":[30],"of":[31,124,132],"which":[32,36],"visiting":[33],"teams":[34],"played":[35],"home":[37],"teams,":[38],"on":[39],"what":[40,43],"date,":[41],"final":[45],"score":[46],"was.":[47],"No":[48],"real":[49],"\"statistics\"":[50],"are":[51,83,119],"used.":[52],"The":[53,89],"method":[54],"works":[55,69],"best":[56],"likely":[59],"because":[60],"it":[61],"is":[62,137],"high-scoring":[63],"has":[65],"long":[66],"seasons.":[67],"It":[68],"better":[70],"football":[72,90],"than":[75],"but":[78],"baseball":[80],"predictions":[82,104],"closer":[84],"theoretical":[87],"optimum.":[88],"predictions,":[91],"while":[92],"good,":[93],"can":[94,105,145],"principle":[96],"be":[97,106,146],"made":[98,107],"much":[99],"better,":[100],"somewhat":[108],"better.":[109],"These":[110],"findings":[111],"tells":[112],"us":[113],"that":[114],"most":[117],"statistics":[118,136],"subsumed":[120],"by":[121],"scores":[123],"games,":[126],"whereas":[127],"further":[130],"study":[131],"game":[133],"player":[135],"necessary":[138],"games":[141],"as":[142,144],"well":[143],"done.":[147],"Baseball":[148],"lie":[151],"somewhere":[152],"between.":[154]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-02-09T09:26:11.010843","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}