{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7135082030","doi":"https://doi.org/10.31449/inf.v50i9.12556","title":"A Closed-Loop Financial Risk Prediction and Dynamic Control Framework Using Optimized Random Forests","display_name":"A Closed-Loop Financial Risk Prediction and Dynamic Control Framework Using Optimized Random Forests","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-03-12","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7135082030","doi":"https://doi.org/10.31449/inf.v50i9.12556"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.31449/inf.v50i9.12556","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.31449/inf.v50i9.12556","pdf_url":"https://www.informatica.si/index.php/informatica/article/download/12556/6559","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210173311","display_name":"Informatica","issn_l":"0350-5596","issn":["0350-5596","1854-3871"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310314525","host_organization_name":"Slovenian Society Informatika","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310314525"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Slovenian Society Informatika"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Informatica","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"diamond","oa_url":"https://www.informatica.si/index.php/informatica/article/download/12556/6559","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5128879342","display_name":"Xuemei Guan","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210157719","display_name":"Yancheng Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/04y8njc86","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210157719"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Xuemei Guan","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Economics and Management, Yancheng Institute of Technology, Yancheng 224051, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Economics and Management, Yancheng Institute of Technology, Yancheng 224051, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210157719"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5044340146","display_name":"Guixian Tian","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2863-1181"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210157719","display_name":"Yancheng Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/04y8njc86","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210157719"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Guixian Tian","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Economics and Management, Yancheng Institute of Technology, Yancheng 224051, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Economics and Management, Yancheng Institute of Technology, Yancheng 224051, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210157719"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.34730239,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"50","issue":"9","first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11653","display_name":"Financial Distress and Bankruptcy Prediction","score":0.9898999929428101,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1402","display_name":"Accounting"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11653","display_name":"Financial Distress and Bankruptcy Prediction","score":0.9898999929428101,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1402","display_name":"Accounting"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11652","display_name":"Imbalanced Data Classification Techniques","score":0.0006000000284984708,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13812","display_name":"AI and HR Technologies","score":0.0006000000284984708,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1407","display_name":"Organizational Behavior and Human Resource Management"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/robustness","display_name":"Robustness (evolution)","score":0.6643999814987183},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/random-forest","display_name":"Random forest","score":0.5274999737739563},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/feature-selection","display_name":"Feature selection","score":0.4099000096321106},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/financial-risk","display_name":"Financial risk","score":0.40049999952316284},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/brier-score","display_name":"Brier score","score":0.3578000068664551},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/decision-tree","display_name":"Decision tree","score":0.3416999876499176},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/risk-management","display_name":"Risk management","score":0.3337000012397766},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/generalization","display_name":"Generalization","score":0.33320000767707825},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/financial-ratio","display_name":"Financial ratio","score":0.322299987077713}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C63479239","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7353546","display_name":"Robustness (evolution)","level":3,"score":0.6643999814987183},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5551999807357788},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C169258074","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q245748","display_name":"Random forest","level":2,"score":0.5274999737739563},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C148483581","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q446488","display_name":"Feature selection","level":2,"score":0.4099000096321106},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C76073288","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1337875","display_name":"Financial risk","level":2,"score":0.40049999952316284},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.3885999917984009},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.3610999882221222},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C35405484","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4967066","display_name":"Brier score","level":2,"score":0.3578000068664551},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C84525736","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q831366","display_name":"Decision tree","level":2,"score":0.3416999876499176},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C32896092","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q189447","display_name":"Risk management","level":2,"score":0.3337000012397766},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177148314","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q170084","display_name":"Generalization","level":2,"score":0.33320000767707825},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C98014903","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q832161","display_name":"Financial ratio","level":2,"score":0.322299987077713},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C161584116","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1952580","display_name":"Multivariate statistics","level":2,"score":0.3197000026702881},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C8642999","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4171168","display_name":"Hyperparameter","level":2,"score":0.3181000053882599},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777388754","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1664594","display_name":"Bankruptcy prediction","level":3,"score":0.3151000142097473},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C158622935","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q660848","display_name":"Nonlinear system","level":2,"score":0.31279999017715454},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C83546350","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1139051","display_name":"Regression","level":2,"score":0.3091999888420105},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112972136","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7595718","display_name":"Stability (learning theory)","level":2,"score":0.2971999943256378},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.29179999232292175},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.27799999713897705},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780092901","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3433612","display_name":"Correlation coefficient","level":2,"score":0.2777999937534332},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778300220","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q114380","display_name":"Financial crisis","level":2,"score":0.2720000147819519},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C129848803","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2564360","display_name":"Sample size determination","level":2,"score":0.26440000534057617},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126255220","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q141495","display_name":"Mathematical optimization","level":1,"score":0.25999999046325684},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C183115368","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q856577","display_name":"Weighting","level":2,"score":0.2549999952316284},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C129844170","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q41299","display_name":"Quadratic equation","level":2,"score":0.2515000104904175},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39927690","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11197","display_name":"Logarithm","level":2,"score":0.2500999867916107}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.31449/inf.v50i9.12556","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.31449/inf.v50i9.12556","pdf_url":"https://www.informatica.si/index.php/informatica/article/download/12556/6559","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210173311","display_name":"Informatica","issn_l":"0350-5596","issn":["0350-5596","1854-3871"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310314525","host_organization_name":"Slovenian Society Informatika","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310314525"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Slovenian Society Informatika"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Informatica","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.31449/inf.v50i9.12556","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.31449/inf.v50i9.12556","pdf_url":"https://www.informatica.si/index.php/informatica/article/download/12556/6559","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210173311","display_name":"Informatica","issn_l":"0350-5596","issn":["0350-5596","1854-3871"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310314525","host_organization_name":"Slovenian Society Informatika","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310314525"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Slovenian Society Informatika"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Informatica","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/15","score":0.5345856547355652,"display_name":"Life in Land"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7135082030.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7135082030.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"To":[0,64],"address":[1],"the":[2,12,31,58,87,111,130,136,158,190,194,197,229,234,257,271,277,296,321,337,343,383,392],"frequent":[3],"financial":[4,39,62],"risk":[5,40,73,230,242,274,291,387,395],"(FR)":[6],"issues":[7],"exposed":[8],"by":[9,233],"enterprises":[10,239,282,326],"in":[11,144,273,285,342,397],"complex":[13],"economic":[14],"environment,":[15],"this":[16,68,236,365],"paper":[17,69,237,366],"proposes":[18],"an":[19],"optimized":[20,139,297],"model":[21,140,298,338],"based":[22,118,227],"on":[23,50,119,157,228,299],"random":[24],"forest":[25],"(RF),":[26],"which":[27,185],"is":[28,89,170,174,177,182,186,200,206,210,215],"used":[29],"for":[30,103,374],"early":[32,376],"warning":[33,377],"and":[34,53,115,133,149,179,212,244,267,276,308,317,330,348,371,378,390],"dynamic":[35,224],"control":[36,81,225,346,379],"of":[37,76,86,97,135,146,160,223,251,259,280,295,324,345,386,394],"enterprise":[38],"(EFR).":[41],"In":[42,221],"existing":[43],"studies,":[44],"traditional":[45],"statistical":[46],"methods":[47,261],"rely":[48],"excessively":[49],"linear":[51],"assumptions":[52],"thus":[54],"struggle":[55],"to":[56,109,152,334,355],"capture":[57],"nonlinear":[59],"relationships":[60],"between":[61],"indicators.":[63],"tackle":[65],"these":[66,335],"problems,":[67],"establishes":[70],"a":[71,246,363,368],"closed-loop":[72],"management":[74,396],"framework":[75,385],"\"prediction":[77],"-":[78,80,82],"classification":[79,292],"feedback\".":[83],"Systematic":[84],"optimization":[85,266],"RF":[88],"further":[90],"performed,":[91],"including":[92],"hyperparameter":[93],"tuning":[94],"(e.g.,":[95],"number":[96],"trees,":[98],"maximum":[99],"depth,":[100],"minimum":[101],"samples":[102],"splitting,":[104],"etc.),":[105],"class":[106],"weight":[107],"setting":[108],"alleviate":[110],"imbalanced":[112],"sample":[113],"problem,":[114],"indicator":[116],"selection":[117],"feature":[120],"importance":[121],"combined":[122],"with":[123,287],"integration":[124],"strategy":[125,247],"adjustment.":[126],"This":[127],"thereby":[128],"improves":[129],"generalization":[131],"ability":[132],"robustness":[134,150,195],"model.":[137],"The":[138,290],"works":[141],"exceptionally":[142],"well":[143],"terms":[145,222],"prediction":[147,388],"accuracy":[148,168,293],"according":[151],"experimental":[153],"results.":[154],"For":[155],"example,":[156],"University":[159],"California,":[161],"Irvine":[162],"Bankruptcy":[163,305],"Prediction":[164,306],"(UCI-BP)":[165],"dataset,":[166],"its":[167],"rate":[169,173,279],"0.91,":[171,315],"precision":[172],"0.88,":[175],"specificity":[176],"0.90,":[178],"Brier":[180],"score":[181],"only":[183],"0.11,":[184],"significantly":[187],"better":[188],"than":[189],"comparison":[191],"models.":[192],"Among":[193],"indicators,":[196],"logarithmic":[198],"loss":[199],"0.27,":[201],"Matthews":[202],"Correlation":[203],"Coefficient":[204],"(MCC)":[205],"0.78,":[207],"Kappa":[208],"coefficient":[209],"0.75,":[211],"stability":[213],"index":[214],"0.89,":[216],"all":[217],"demonstrating":[218],"stronger":[219],"robustness.":[220],"effect,":[226],"probabilities":[231],"output":[232],"model,":[235],"classifies":[238],"into":[240],"different":[241],"levels":[243],"constructs":[245],"mapping":[248],"rule":[249],"base":[250],"\"risk":[252],"level-control":[253],"measures\".":[254],"By":[255],"simulating":[256],"implementation":[258],"intervention":[260],"such":[262],"as":[263],"cash":[264],"flow":[265],"liability":[268],"structure":[269],"adjustment,":[270],"changes":[272],"distribution":[275],"transfer":[278,322],"high-risk":[281,325],"are":[283,314],"evaluated":[284],"combination":[286],"feedback":[288],"data.":[289],"rates":[294,323],"three":[300],"datasets":[301],"(UCI-BP,":[302],"Kaggle":[303,309],"Company":[304],"(Kaggle-BP)":[307],"Corporate":[310],"Credit":[311],"Rating":[312],"(Kaggle-CCR))":[313],"0.89":[316],"0.88":[318],"respectively.":[319,332],"Moreover,":[320],"reach":[327],"0.34,":[328],"0.32":[329],"0.30":[331],"According":[333],"findings,":[336],"can":[339],"successfully":[340],"assist":[341],"execution":[344],"techniques":[347],"precisely":[349],"identify":[350],"possible":[351],"hazards,":[352],"enabling":[353],"businesses":[354],"take":[356],"preventative":[357],"action":[358],"before":[359],"crises":[360],"arise.":[361],"As":[362],"result,":[364],"offers":[367],"fresh":[369],"approach":[370],"useful":[372],"resource":[373],"EFR":[375],"research.":[380],"It":[381],"enhances":[382],"theoretical":[384],"models":[389],"raises":[391],"usefulness":[393],"real-world":[398],"applications.":[399]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-06-11T09:08:48.828518","created_date":"2026-03-13T00:00:00"}
